A couple weeks ago, I would've said: "They're too big to fail...of course they'll survive!" [more]
Unless the after-hours beating on AAPL reverses, tomorrow is going to be a bloodbath. The Nasdaq has been flying high recently, but if the most heavily weighted stock falls 7%, you're in trouble. It looks like other tech stocks that have beat are sharing the pain...if the entire sector follows AAPL, you could see the largest single day percentage decline since May 6th...it could be much worse...
To me, the sharp decline in the VIX recently seems to be saying that caution is warranted here. In fact, the charts seem to be screaming it...they look broken. Is the VIX going to break out sharply lower here as stocks continue to rise, or is the VIX set to break out higher as stocks fall? [more]
Three weeks ago, I predicted that the market would fall 5%+ by today. Well, the S&P is up right around 3% since I made that call. The best September in decades saw stock climb nearly 6% in the first 7 trading days, and then stock just kept climbing...except for financials, many of which are down 10%+ since my initial prediction. That would be great if I had shorted financials, but I didn't. I am, however, sticking with my original prediction...just pushing the time-line out. I'm guessing that the market is very near a short-term top...financials led the decline in April as well, so we'll see. I'm not expecting the market to crash...the market just looks very overbought here, and nothing looks like a buy... [more]