TRP, my "personalized stock idea" for today, is attractive in a lot of ways, but that 67% payoff ratio is NOT attractive. I think I'll pass on entering a pick on it either way for now.
This looks like a stock to avoid picking either way. The Co.'s earnings are expected to grow nicely next fiscal year but the PEs, both trailing and forward, are on the high side. Which I interpret as meaning there is a greater chance of a negative earnings surprise than of a positive one.
Looks like time to add this to my "cover shorts" list. I ended an "underperform" pick on this a few months ago, and it has bounced back a bit since then, but not enough to make me interested in going long.
Insider holdings are still only 4% of the outstanding shares, and I want to see that rise to at least 10% before I expect anything more than whipsawing from it.
This stock may be going into what I call the "True Ground Floor" phase of the IPO process. That doesn't make it a "buy" necessarily, but covering shorts, and ending "underperform" picks here at MF does seem a good idea now. I just ended my own "underperform" pick on this one, BTW.
I'd like to read some comments on ideas I've long held concerning IPOs. [more]