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EScroogeJr (< 20)

December 2007

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stock manipulation and a case for laissez-faire

December 30, 2007 – Comments (2)

An interesting post by cubanstockpicker:   [more]

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Colin Angle's interview

December 28, 2007 – Comments (0)

IRBT is now having a mini-rally, due to the confluence of 3 events: winning the lawsuit against RoboticFX, expectations of a qood quarter, and Colin Angle's attempt to put lipstick on his pig in this interview to Bisiness Week.    [more]

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Why housing bears are wrong (Part 7)

December 24, 2007 – Comments (4)

This part will be really simple and will not require a lengthy explanation, but it's an important piece of the puzzle. The United States is a country that exists in an economic equilibrium with other regions of the world. Every year it accepts hundreds of thousands of legal immigrants, hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants, and is visited by tens of thousans of foreign investors seeking a reliable home for their capital. The purchasing power of these individuals is proportional to house prices in their native countries. And the price gap between the US and the rest of the world has never been narrower. Until recently, Americans could look down on Eastern Europeans, Middle Easterners and Latin Americans because the net worth was so disproportionate. However, most of that advantage was artificial because after you adjusted for purchasing power parity, the real wages were more or less comparable. It is only when you brought housing equity into consideration that an American tourist would become an object of envy to the locals who did not know how to inflate property values by mortgage financing, so to them a humble owner of a manufactured house in the Arizona desert looked like a Rotschield, a man who could buy every one of them twenty times over. But since then, foreign countries have discovered the secret of America's wealth. It's hardly surprising, because the secret was never hidden to begin with. It consisted of three simple parts: ban construction, introduce mortgages, and print money. So after decades of languishing in America's shadow and feeling poor, these "emerging economies" finally learned this simple trick and inflated their own housing bubbles. In addition, the commodities boom coupled with America's trade deficit have largely eliminated the exchange rate handicap, and for the first time in history, the property value gap has begun to close. Ten years ago, an immigrant would sell his house in his native country and arrive in America with the dollar equivalent of one year's rent. Today, such an immigrant will arrive with the dollar equivalent of a 40% down payment on a home in a most frothy American market. He will be a second-time, trade-up buyer by the American standards. Also, the composition of the immigrant population will never be the same as it used to be. The supply of fools abroad who believe in the American dream and look forward to starting from skratch and earning a house by hard work has dried up. You can thank globalization, the internet, and the increasingly uniform housing experience in their own countries. Today's immigrant knows full well that the social elevators are now shut down and that without a workable plan to buy a house, he has no business leaving his country for America. Those who arrive today know exactly what living accomodation they are going to buy and how they are going to afford it. So the future demand will essentially equal the number of immigrant households. And the same process that is increasing the purchasing power of immigrants also increases the purchasing power of foreigners who look at houses as an investment. The price gap has closed, but America still offers political stability that other countries are lacking. Nobody is going to commit all the money to any one country, but why not diversify a little bit into the American real estate, which lookes more safe and less frothy on a relative scale? And one other thing: in the past, many Americans used to settle abroad upon retirement. No longer. Given today's property values and exchange rates, it doesn't make economic sense. So expect the retirees to stay with us and to make their contribution to the demand rather than supply.  [more]

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who wants to read in halogen light?

December 21, 2007 – Comments (3)

So, feeling ready to switch to halogen and get your share of $18 bln in savings? Eye specialists will surely be celebrating Dec 19 as their second birthday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN1962029920071220 

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response to abitarecatania and buffett

December 18, 2007 – Comments (2)

In a commentary to my post about the impending destruction of the US economy (or the lack thereof), abitarecatania  quotes Buffett's prediction about Squanderville being taken oven by Thriftville. My reply:  [more]

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Inflation must be suppressed, Greenspan says

December 16, 2007 – Comments (1)

So let us get this straight: the Fed chairman who lent trillions of dollars at 2-3% is now talking about taming inflation? I always thought inflation is something that happens whan you inject new money into the economy at the rate exceeding the rate of economic growth, am I missing something? By the way, Alan, what would be the rate of inflation that you have so cleverly suppressed by excluding house prices from the CPI index if you practiced fair accounting?  [more]

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Impending destruction of the US Economy

December 14, 2007 – Comments (4)

Morgan Housel has launched his attach against the US economy:   [more]

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Strange plan to save housing

December 13, 2007 – Comments (2)

QualityPicks offers his plan to get us out of the mess:  [more]

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Medvedev gets my Foolish vote

December 10, 2007 – Comments (0)

In a move that is so untypical for him, Putin for once did select the lesser evil. Medvedev appears to be the worst possible successor, except all the others.

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Bring back the old Fool!

December 05, 2007 – Comments (2)

Just typed the familiar URL to see my good old Fool.com, and saw instead some strange-looking, flashy site of the kind that I would design if I wanted to pump and dump a POS named CROOK.OB. I could almost swear I saw Jim Cramer's face and heard him yelling: "buy, buy, buy, sell, sell, sell, buy, buy, buy".

Bring back the old Fool! Pleease!

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Now, who is really stupid?

December 04, 2007 – Comments (10)

The renters who did not take ARM loans and continued to rent have been telling us how smart they are and how stupid are those (presumably) struggling homeowners who got into these loans. OK, if you're so smart, why are you paying your tax dollars to those who are stupid? The Paulson bailout has its cost, which somebody will be paying, and obviously, it's won't be the homeowners who are getting bailed out. Keep renting, wait untill you're priced out of the housing market and then get fleeced by the Federal Government to help homeowners price you out still further - now, that's really smart!  [more]

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velvet reprivatization already in full swing?

December 01, 2007 – Comments (4)

A special read for MakeItSeven and all other American admirers of Putin's economic miracle.  [more]

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