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June 2008



Had to buy on today's big down day NSM ONNN GEF VIP MRO

June 20, 2008 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: GEF , TXCO , NSM

I've been buying this selloff, but keep in mind I will be selling the next rally as well. We're heading into the summer in an election year and there is a lot to be worried about for the intermediate term...   [more]



My Favorite Long Ideas - after the Carnage of today: MRO MBT VIP GEF NSM TXCO

June 18, 2008 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: NSM , TXCO , VIP

Yeah I'm feeling my oats this month - the market has been down over 200 points and my real life portfolio and CAPS just keep rising.  [more]



Sandridge (SD) -The best energy stock most people don't know about yet

June 18, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SD.DL , CHK , XTO.DL

For fun I figured I'd start this article off with some titillating questions:  [more]



FYI - CAPS 4-5 Star Stocks Outperform the Market... How about that

June 17, 2008 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: VIP , AAPL , BBRY

Rather than re-type the entire article from the CAPs team I'll redirect you to it here .  [more]



Homebuilders - may rally near term - but longer term they will trade lower

June 17, 2008 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: TOL , LEN , RYL.DL

I've been going head to head with my internal conflict regarding my homebuilder shorts. I've been trying to be honest with myself regarding my positions ... I've been wrestling with the idea that my my shorting of homebuilder stocks is justified and not greedy.  [more]



Russian Telecom Will Work (MBT VIP) - Cheap Growth and Currency Investment

June 12, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: MBT , VIP , AMX

Mobil Telesys (MBT) is a extremely large cellular company with 70 million subscribers... so it will not fold on you over-night. I prefer MBT to Vimplecom (VIP) but I own them both.   [more]



A formula for weighing Risk / Reward / Probability

June 11, 2008 – Comments (3)

When investing many novice investors forget that risk/reward is only the beginning of a more complex ratio... risk/reward/PROBABILITY.  [more]



Big Value at Jack in the Box Restaurant (JBX) - That's saying alot because I hate leisure stocks

June 10, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: JBX , MCD , DRI

Jack in the Box (JBX) could appreciate 50% to 100% on value and sum of the parts.

JBX is both a value / turnaround play and a sum-of-the-parts play.  

1. The value story:

 The value and turnaround play involves the 10x PE and the companies new strategy of selling franchises rather than operating stores. By selling franchises JBX takes on less food cost risk and also frees up capital to grow both of its concept (Jack in the Box & Qdoba Mexican Grille) beyond the west cost into the east cost.  
JBX at $23 is a nice opportunity for value investors as it has home run potential and an appealing risk reward. I think the upside to JBX is about 50% to 100% from current levels over the next 18 months while the downside is 5-15%.

2.) The sum of the parts story:

2) The sum of the parts relates to the second chain that JBX owns - Qdoba Mexican Grille - 395 restaurants vs 2100 Jack in the Box restaurants.  While Qdoba is a smaller chain than Jack & the Box it is also faster growing and would likely fetch a premium multiple if it was IPO'd

The bottom line is that JBX trades at a 10 PE right now which seems to discount a very dire situation and it provides good protection from further economic shocks or multiple contraction across the market.

However the company is doing many things right. Until last quarter JBX had enjoyed 18 consecutive quarters of same store sales growth.

While I prefer growth stocks or GARP with a near term catalysts I'll stop to pick up   [more]

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