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The futile game of calling a bottom

January 23, 2008 – Comments (1)

I think it is still way too early to call a bottom--when we are at the bottom, almost all of us will be just too disgusted with anything related to stocks to keep checking the boards here at TMF or anyplace else. The number of posts will dry up to a slow trickle, and hardly anyone will be asking if it is time to buy.

Personally, I will be waiting for that to happen. For now, at least, I won't be buying up shares of battered down stocks (as I've been doing for most of this month). I'll still be adding to a lot of dividend-paying companies through their DRIP programs, and I'll be adding to the funds that make up my 401K and IRA, but that's about it. I won't be selling--I don't need the money, and I think we'll get a turnaround eventually, but I've totally given up trying to prognosticate when the turnaround will come. Maybe by the end of February--maybe by the end of the year--maybe by the end of the decade. But that's the point--as long as people are thinking this way, there will be a lot more sellers than buyers.  [more]




November 27, 2007 – Comments (0)

Okay, so I picked this one way early--it is down about 35-40% compared with the S&P since I picked it. But this morning I finally added it to my real-world portfolio (albeit, on a  small order), because I think the stock right now is a screaming bargain. There are so many drivers for growth for CRDN that the stock should be trading at a premium, but instead it is trading at a TTM PE of 8.4 and a forward PE of 7.8.

The market is punishing CRDN for uncertainty regarding future military orders--orders which could mean huge new business for the company. Right now, with the market the way it is, uncertainty is being treated as if it were an iron clad negative. The company gave a huge range for forward guidance for the year--because it is awaiting word on the biggest contract in the company's history. However, the stock market is disregarding even the lower range of the guidance (which completely discounts the contract), and treating the company as if it is doomed.

On  11/20/07 it hit its low for the year-$40 and change. Today, after an investors update conference call, the stock is trading at about 44.20. I think this is a great buying opportunity. It even brings out my inner Cramer--"BUY! BUY! BUY!"  [more]



My worst investment decision

October 10, 2007 – Comments (2)

A while back I bought Dryships (DRYS) on the recommendation of Vivien Lewis, editor of the Global Investing newsletter. I had 300 shares at an average cost of about $10 and change. It paid a nice dividend at that price, so I was being paid to hold my shares. But for some reason--probably boredom, since the shares went nowhere for around six months--I decided to sell them. Made a profit of at least $300. Not bad.  [more]



divergence from real-life portfolio & CAPS

October 08, 2007 – Comments (1)

Due to cash limitation, a lot of stocks I recommend in CAPS never make it into my real-life portfolio. That's understandable.   [more]



August is over--October is coming

September 29, 2007 – Comments (2)

The August swoon offered great value for many stocks. Steel, aluminum, utilities, and financials were especially attractive. Hope you picked up some nice profits.


If history repeats itself, the September recovery may give way to a second wave of selling in October. I hope you are keeping some powder dry. If you don't have any funds available, start looking to trim some holdings in the next week or two to raise cash. 

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