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July 2009

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3

AMED is exploding! Why today?

July 31, 2009 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: AMED

AMED, a company I personally own and recommended for TigerPackFund, has gone up 13% in the first 30 minutes of trading today.    [more]

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How do you justify actively investing your money?

July 27, 2009 – Comments (34)

I recently responded to a discussion about market manipulation.  It got me thinking about how the little guy can beat the big guy despite all his advantages.  [more]

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A challenge for Ben Grahams liquidation test.

July 26, 2009 – Comments (3)

This is the final in a line of liquidation based posts.  In earlier posts we have discussed the best way of calculating liquidation value.  Naturally, Ben Grahams name was mentioned as the liquidation expert.  Despite an established expert on the subject, I thought it would be interesting to develop my own formula based on the feedback from several of our own experts here on caps (bulshibabo, wolfhounds, portefeuille, jmt587, mrindependant, ultracontrarian, tigerpack and others).

I created two portfolios to test Ben Grahams method against the one we developed.  Both started today, both selected stocks out of the same pool, and both only selected stocks that were shown to be undervalued from the liquidation test.  A lot of these stocks will be common between both groups and a lot of the other stocks were not pickable in caps.  I ordered the stocks from most undervalued to least undervalued in both lists.  Also last week I started the wickedation portfolio based on a mix of the justliquidation calculation and my anticitrade algorithm  

Benliquidation - Based on Ben Graham's liquidation
(Total current Assets-Total Liabilites)/Shares

GSIG, CABL, MAD, CRC, XING, SIG, INTT, TWMC, NWD, ACLS, TRAC, TAIT, HRSH, MEAD, CRV, HMNA, LKI, PARL, EONC, LOAN, CALC, NLST, SGMA, ORS, COBR, CLZR, ORXE, TGAL, TBAC, AMCE, ENWV, ADGF, SVLF, MSN, AVTR, FNET, ZOOM, PLNR, QXM, SPDE, SYNX, HWG, ROX, KTCC, PIII, HDNG, WEX, FORD, HILL, CNVR, SYMX, NSYS, RCMT, EDEN, ROFO, RELL, LIVE, ARCW, CTHR, BNSO, NUHC, NTZ, GAI, EFJI, PGLA, CAPS, GRO, TGIS, NYER, SIMO, FLXS, SYI, OPXT, MGT, IKAN, NINE, FEIM, LIMC, HLYS, MHO, HSWI, WLDN, TIII, JADE, GENC, PXG, TSRI, TPTX, DRAM, VRAZ, UPG, NCST, SWIR, ACTS, NRGN, PHHM, CNTF, VOCL, HHGP, LTON, VPF, CPRX, ECGI, DITC, TTIL, RITT, HIHO, SOAP, YMI, ATHX, INHX, DUCK, IGOI, ICCC, SCX, TRID, AEHR, FMTI, CUO, VIMC, ATV, ABTL, TSC, PRCP, PFIN, PFSW, VOL, ANGN, JCTCF, OICO, MACE, VOXX, PNS, CSPI, SINO, TRT, SLTC, PRLS, IMN, PTIX, TOMO, CNIC, TATTF, TRCI, FSII, ADPT, NED, LDIS, ICGN, NCTY, AXTI, NYFX, ACAT, HZO, WTT, HEPH, CYNO, IOT, LOOK, LAKE, UUU, FRD, TLGD, UWN, VII, EFOI, IMR, DYII, ACMR, RFIL, CAMT, GIGA, ASYS, DCU, ASB, ATRM, AIRT, ZAP, WGA, CVR, GBR, ANLY, ANTP, ASUR, TSTC, ISR, EDAP, HRT, MTSN, PLUG, BHS, KSW, NSUR, TCM, NENG, SIMG, PDII, PCCC, RCKY, DSWL, AVGN


Justliquidation - Based on our calculation of liquidation
((Total assets-Intangibles-0.5*Net PPE-0.5*Inventory-0.15*Accts Receivable-0.5*Other Long Term Assets)-(Total Liabilities))/Shares

MAD, GSIG, CABL, BWTR, XING, CRC, INTT, NWD, CTHR, XJT, CEP, ACLS, NLST, PINN, VRTA, SIG, TRAC, AWX, LOAN, FNET, ORXE, HMNA, AMCE, SYMX, AHC, NTZ, TAIT, SPDE, ENWV, TV, QXM, CLZR, LIVE, ORS, MSN, MEAD, CNVR, HMY, GAI, HRSH, TGAL, TORM, EDEN, FORD, NINE, PARL, TA, WEX, TIII, TRT, ARCW, TGIS, GRO, PGLA, CAPS, GBR, RCMT, SYI, NCST, HILL, SIMO, MGT, USEG, TTIL, STRC, SCX, ZOOM, TBAC, CAMT, ICCC, UWN, PIII, ATHX, HSWI, HWG, AVTR, DRAM, ADGF, NRGN, VOCL, IKAN, WLDN, NYFX, ISR, FFHL, TPTX, TRID, ACTS, BNSO, PLNR, HLYS, MACE, HHGP, IOT, SOAP, CNTF, INHX, ECGI, CPRX, CUO, OPXT, ASB, VPF, EDCI, FEIM, SYNX, HKN, SWIR, YMI, DSWL, ROX, LTON, TSRI, NCTY, KAZ, ABTL, NGD, PRCP, KRY, DITC, LIMC, VIMC, BRNC, GENC, SINO, UUU, TSC, ICGN, ATV, EDGW, SLTC, ABIO, MSC, LDIS, ADPT, XPRT, VRAZ, ECTX, DYII, OPTT, PRLS, CNIC, TECUA, EONC, SGMA, IGOI, HRT, HIHO, LOOK, HEPH, PTIX, CVR, ORBC, OPMR, RVP, PLUG, DII, NSUR, NED, UAHC, AEHR, NTE, CYNO, TCM, MPAC, COBR, EGT, AXTI, WTT, IMR, KDE, RITT, OICO, FSII, ZAP, ASUR, IDSY, VOL, ADL, BNX, BSET, FRD, KTCC, STRT, TOMO, SIMG, TSCM, OBAS, TECUB, PDII, ISSI, TLGD, FLXS, QLTI, GU, AVGN, TMNG, ANGN, JCTCF, QBAK, RMX, GRVY


Wickedation - Based on a combination of anticitrade and our calculation of liquidation (started last week)
=(%Undervalued according to Anticitrade*%Undervalued according to my liquidation calculation)^0.5-1

Coincidentally, the wickedation portfolio (started July 22nd) is now ranked 82.69 with a 58.5% accuracy.

Let me know your thoughts.  (I am not recommending any of these stocks, but just testing these two mechanical methods against each other in an imperfect test)   [more]

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Top 10 Companies to buy based on liquidation value. Wickedation Test.

July 22, 2009 – Comments (24) | RELATED TICKERS: GSIG , XINGF.DL , ACAS

A few days ago I asked about the best way to calcualte liquiation values for a firm.  Based on the comments I got, and my own assumptions I came up with the equation:  [more]

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21

How would you calculate Liquidation Value?

July 20, 2009 – Comments (12)

I have been considering adding liquidation value to my model for quite some time.  There seems to be various schools of thought on how best to calculate a company's liquidation value.  I am trying to generate a set of rules that I can automate across all non-finance U.S. traded stocks that will produce conservative liquidation values (many of you will understandably feel that without personally inspecting each companies assets you cannot generate any meaningful liquidation value, lets pretend that I know that, but still want to do it).  Here are my options:  [more]

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Accountability for my recent real money trades.

July 16, 2009 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: PRGN , MYTAY

This is another update on the investing moves I have made with real money.  [more]

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Backtesting Investment Strategies

July 13, 2009 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: ICI , TRAD.DL

When I first developed my investing model I was ignorant about my level of ignorance.  Despite my ignorance^2, I had the opportunity to meet with several large investment firms and venture capitalists about my creation.  One question that was consistently asked was:  [more]

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What do yo think of TKG? C

July 08, 2009 – Comments (17) | RELATED TICKERS: TKG

On Monday of this week my system replaced SAY with TKG as the top pick.  Since then TKG has gone up about 7.5%.    [more]

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35

YOU TOO CAN UNLOCK THE HIDDEN POTENTIAL OF THE DOOM AND GLOOMERS!

July 06, 2009 – Comments (43)

After reading the increasing number of radical doom and gloom posts on MF, I have been left with a choice.  I can accept that the majority of the blogs on MF are less credible than “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” and stop reading them……  OR I can accept that the majority of the blogs on MF are less credible than “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” and figure out how to make some money off these gloomy soldiers of the apocalypse.    [more]

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