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October 2008

Recs

18

McCain will Win and the Market May/Will Rally

October 31, 2008 – Comments (25) | RELATED TICKERS: SKF , GLD , UDN

SUMMARY

I understand many believe Obama is going to win by a landslide, even Intrade has the odds for Obama. But in the back of my mind, I think McCain is going to win.


DETAILS

1. Obama will undermine the "Affirmative Action" many enjoy.
Many Obama supporters recognize Obama undermines the “victim class” and the “affirmative action" that many have benefited from.

The question would be "why do you need Affirmative Action, if the guy sitting in the White House has more melatonin then you and he is the PRESIDENT?" I believe in the back of many of the "victim classes" recipients an Obama victory undermines their story and government dole payout. So when the curtains in the voting booth are closed many will vote for McCain.

2. Young people do not vote, they go to rallies for fun. That is why they have to pay Social Security and Medicare to old people playing golf in Florida. Many Obama supporters think Obama is going to win by a large margin, and may not show up.

3. Old people do vote. Old people will vote for an old person aka the "devil they know", which is McCain. That is why the receive Medicare and Social Security from young people that are working at Subway and WalMart. McCain himself receives four paychecks from the government: Military retirement, Senate pay, 100% disability, I forgot the other one…

4. The Bradley effect theorizes that the inaccurate polls were skewed by the phenomenon of social desirability bias.[7][8] Specifically, some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. The race of the pollster conducting the interview may factor in to voters' answers.

5. Many people, who normally do not vote will come out to vote against Obama. The world is racist. Sorry, people will vote based on race, people will come out of the "wood work" to vote against Obama. Look at the panic Lordz is having...

6. Although America has one of the largest governments (by cost) ever created, Americans are trained to hate socialism and tax increases. Many will come out to vote against Obama for fear of socialism. The inflation tax of printing money out thin air is not something most Americans understand.

7. Obama is also the "big unknown", people vote for "the devil they know", which is McCain.

8. Homer Simpson can show you another reason McCain will win:  [more]

Recs

13

Peter Schiff - Empire Collapse & Emergence of Asia

October 30, 2008 – Comments (15) | RELATED TICKERS: UDN , GLD , SKF

This is my response to awallejr and any other Fools, who believe the answer lies with more regulation and more government intervention.  [more]

Recs

14

Marc Faber 29 OCT 08 "Chairmen Bernacke has been a disaster"

October 30, 2008 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: SKF

I am still holding #1 in points. But we are in Black Swan territory, social uphevals are pending all this stupidity by the corrupt cartel the FED.  [more]

Recs

18

Kunstler's Easthampton Burning? Lessons from Argentina's economic collapse

October 28, 2008 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD

BACKGROUND

I added some groupies, so for a quick background:

aresfinancial is a points chaser. Points are hard to obtain in CAPS. A stock that falls 30% may not yeild any points, unless the market falls 40%. I WAS #1 in points with 10962. That might change today.

abitarePERFECT - is a clean Bear. He does the accuracy thing, that Fools go crazy for. He was created to compete with bridgeboy0, who could never catch Ares. abitarePERFECT was ranked #6. bridgeboy0 is -5000 points.

I also have an account on updown.com under abitarecatania was up 160% YTD. Not all "Allstars" are created equal. I would guess many Allstars with Green thumbs must be broke. Since I have been playing CAPS the Bric Story, Commodity Bubble, Oil Bubble, Housing Bubble, have imploded and many a past Allstar have imploded with these "stories".

I can see a rally where many of the new "uber bears" may get taken to the wood shed too. If you look at my points chart you can see at 10k Ares might be a little over done in the near term.


THE MARKET

The market has sold off far further then I would have guessed and has caused a panic and multiple hedge fund implosions. I could see a rally back to 10k, but my guess is we are heading lower. I expect deflation and DOW 5-7k are not out of the question. King Henry changed the rules of the game from tyranny comes flight and panic seaking safety.

We now set on a fence of inflation, hyperinflation, stagflation or deflation. Higher unemployment is coming the main thing Americans should be concerned about is their job. Do what you have to do to stay employed and save money. The slow down hitting America could last decades.

The speed and size of the unwind has been amazing. You can look at my previous post to glance at the world markets sell off. My guess in Dec 07 was 25% drop S&P500 and a 40% drop in China.

We have blown thru that. Fools jumping on my Bandwagon now may have missed the move that moved me to Top of Fooldom.

We are in Black Swan territory now. I see multiple Black Swans circling. Fools, who used to mock my bearish write ups, have lately gone quiet. But, you can write your own narative from here. Deflationary depression or Argentine Collapse or it just all becomes normal and the games continue. The Argentine collapse is extremely interesting, because the corrupt, politically correct, ineptitude appointment of VP Eva Peron is strikingly similar to VP choice Palin.

To help you with your narrative I have found:


East Hampton Burning

by James Kunstler

In the typhoon of commentary that's blown around the world a step behind the financial tsunami that's wrecking everything, two little words have been curiously absent: "fraud" and "swindle." But aren't they really at the core of what has happened? Wall Street took the whole world "for a ride" and now a handful of Wall Street's erstwhile princelings have shifted ceremoniously into US Government service to "fix" the problem with a "toolbox" containing a notional two trillion dollars. This strange exercise in financial kabuki theater will shut down sometime between the election and inauguration day, when the inaugurate finds himself president of the Economic Smoking Wreckage of the United States. What will happen?

I have thought for some time that things could get dangerously out of hand in America, despite our exceptionalist notion that we are immune to the common plot-lines of history. For starters, inauguration night will seem more like Halloween, as those two little words fly in to haunt the new president. So, a large and looming question is: who will be appointed the next attorney general of the US (to replace the human sash-weight currently occupying the office), and how soon will the federal marshals be scouring the wainscoted hallways of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, not to mention a thousand Greenwich, Connecticut, hedge fund boiler rooms, with man-sized nets?

A story-line is already emerging to the effect that these birds really didn't quite know what they were doing in grinding out that multi-trillion dollar basket of alphabet securities sausage (a theme on Sunday's "60-Minutes" broadcast). Nobody will buy that line of bullsh t, though -- and certainly not in the courtroom where, for instance, Mr. Hank Paulson will have to answer why his own firm of Goldman Sachs set up a special unit to short its own issues. It will be edifying to see how they answer.

In the meantime, however, millions of Joe-the-Plumber types will have gotten their pink slips, slipped helplessly into foreclosure, watched the repo men hot-wire their Ford pickups, and eaten down the kitchen cupboard to a single box of Kellogg's All-Bran (which had been sitting there for eleven years infested with weevils). They will be watching the official proceedings in the federal courtrooms with jaundiced eyes as they hunch in their tent cities, in the rain, sipping amateur-brand raisin wine bartered for a few snared rock doves. How long before the hardier ones among them venture out to Easthampton with long knives and matches?

It will bring little satisfaction though, and the disappointment could lead to a more inchoate outbreak of civil disorder that would be more like a free-for-all of vengeance and grievance. There will be a great outcry for the new government to "do something!" Perhaps that will finally bring the troops home from Iraq -- only for them to find that the Homeland has become Iraq....

If the financial system completes its self-destruction -- and that's looking more and more like a real possibility -- there will be several pretty awful consequences. One is that the United States will be forced to declare bankruptcy by repudiating its own debt. All those who took refuge in US Treasury bonds and bills will be like folks who sought shelter from a tornado in their out-house. That would go hand-in-hand with a massive currency inflation that is likely to follow the current phase of compressive liquidating deflation -- in which every possible asset is being sold off for less than its face value. That process is self-limiting due to the finite supply of real salable assets. The trillions of dollars injected into system while this is happening must eventually snap-back as people shed the last fungible article and compete for necessary commodities like food and fuel with dollars that are suddenly plentiful but worthless. At some point, the government may have to summon up a new currency. I don't think it will be anything like the "Amero" which the paranoid fringe incessantly mutters about as part of their fantasy in which the US, Mexico, and Canada all join up to become one country. But any "new dollar" would probably have to be backed by gold.

As we discover ourselves to be a much poorer nation, one of my correspondents put it: "the bogus risk-swapping economy must be replaced by a net value-added economy." That means actually making things, growing things, and rebuilding things, and that can only begin to happen if we do not stupidly sucker ourselves into a war with other nations who are liable to be extremely ticked off at us for destroying the global economy, but also competing with us for a dwindling supply of resources that are not equitably distributed around the world.

This means especially oil. I hope you're enjoying the temporarily cheap prices at the gas pumps, because this is purely a function of the compressive deleveraging that is going on right now, as contracts and positions held in energy markets are being dumped by everybody and his uncle to raise cash to meet margin calls. My guess is that oil and its byproducts will become much more difficult to get in the months ahead -- not just more expensive, but literally not available. The current falling price of oil has little to do with the real supply and demand fundamentals. It's simply a function of the markets being in near-total disarray. We're running on current inventory, and running it down. In the background, all kinds of peculiar and terrible things are happening. The entire apparatus of allocation and distribution is being thrown out of whack. The smaller tanker operations are going bankrupt. The "less-developed" nations are heading back to the 17th-century level of daily life without electricity. The oil exploration and development projects that were planned for hard-to-get oil netting $100-a-barrel minimum -- in places like the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, Siberia, and Central Asia -- are being shelved, which means the world has less of a chance to offset coming depletions in old fields.

The bottom line of all this is that we in the US could find ourselves in a situation of shortages, hoarding, and rationing. This would pretty much kill off whatever remains of the previous shuck-and-jive economy -- hamburger sales, theme park visits, Nascar weekends -- while it makes obvious the failures of our suburban living arrangements (and drives the value of housing there closer to zero).

The new president will have to be Franklin Roosevelt on steroids, with some Mahatma Gandhi and Florence Nightingale thrown in. My pet project of restoring the American passenger railroad system might seem pretty minor in the face of all this, but it's at least a place to start that will accomplish several things: allow people and things to get places without cars and trucks; put many thousands of people to work at many levels doing something of direct, practical value; and be a small step in rebuilding confidence that we are a society capable of accomplishing something.

An outstanding read here, whether you think the world is going to end or not the lessons here are outstanding. You should have them in your memory regardless of your guestimation of the future.  [more]

Recs

28

What Now? On the Election, World Markets, Deflation into Hyperinflation

October 26, 2008 – Comments (17) | RELATED TICKERS: SKF , SRS

NOTE:   [more]

Recs

12

10964 Points, Schiff on 23 Oct, Ron Paul on 24 OCT, Will Ferrel as Bush (Humor)

October 24, 2008 – Comments (11) | RELATED TICKERS: SKF

Some how I managed to climb and stay #1 in points and abitarePERFECT is #6?
I am surprised really at the incredible speed and size of the sell off.   [more]

Recs

11

Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Nouriel Roubini 20-22 OCT and Reliable Investments (Videos)

October 22, 2008 – Comments (12)

If you want to know why the market was down so much in the last couple of days look at who was on Squawk Box this week:    [more]

Recs

21

Numero Uno? Vicino...On Gold

October 21, 2008 – Comments (14) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , AAPL , GS

Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall. Better it is to be of an humble spirit with the lowly, than to divide the spoil with the proud.   [more]

Recs

21

A Reply to a Friend and "Buy and Hold"?, then, BUY and HOLD it in YOUR Hands.

October 20, 2008 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: SKF , SRS , GLD

I received a letter from a friend. I thought would share it and add some additionial comments, that occured to me later.   [more]

Recs

17

Inflationary Depression or Recession. How to Protect Yourself. Peter Schiff: Just Stop Paying Your Mortgage

October 19, 2008 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , SKF , SLV

A prudent man seeth the evil, and hideth himself; But the simple pass on, and suffer for it.
Proverbs 22:3

My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge.
Hosea 4:1-6

I had to come out of retirement, to post some videos. If you are Peter Schiff fan, I think you will like these guys. These were posted on June 24, 2008; I wish I had seen these earlier. There are more videos on youtube.com. We are in a critical phase in US financial history. I think it is imperative that people make decisions that will protect their future.

If I was to give a presentation it would sound like these guys:

Wall Street's Schemes Part I: Mcalvany 2008




The US Housing Decline Part I: Mcalvany 2008 (5:56)

"the government is flat out lying"

"the real estate collapse is taking the US into a Japanesse style recession"



The US Housing Decline Part II: Mcalvany 2008

"a severely declining US dollar will put pressure on long term interest rate"

in a Japanesse recession "people do not borrow and banks do not lend"

"the Bush freeze is patently illegal...foreign confidence will plunge"

"foreign banks will flee the US, while unleashing a firestorm of lawsuits"



An Inflationary Recession Part I: Mcalvany 2008

"we can expect more bank failures"

"we can expect an Inflationary Depression"

"the FED will step aside to safety"

"we are witnessing the destruction of the modern banking system" Bill Gross




An Inflationary Recession Part II: Mcalvany 2008

"FED has to inflate or die"

"unemployment is 10-12%"




US Dollar Cave-In Part I: Mcalvany 2008

"the system is out of control, Wallstreet is out of control"

"five major factors impacting Gold"

"the long term dollar decline began with the birth of the FED"




US Dollar Cave-In Part II: Mcalvany 2008

"oil is heading to $150 to 200 a barrel"



China - The Power Shift Part I: Mcalvany 2008

"Tata motors has a new car for $2500"

"China and India are encouraging people to buy gold"




China - The Power Shift Part II: Mcalvany 2008

"will create a gold buying frenzy"

" gold in in a bull maket in Euros, Swiss Francs etc...."


   [more]

Recs

24

Retiring for Awhile

October 14, 2008 – Comments (16)

I will be taking a break from the market and CAPS for awhile. Most of what I thought would come to pass, has happened.  I leave CAPS now #2 in points and with abitareperfect in the Top 50.

Now we are in Black Swan territory from here it is anybodys guess. Stagflation, deflation or hyperinflation? I cannot guess accurately and do not want to mislead anyone from here. I reloaded my portfolio and will let it ride.   [more]

Recs

9

Black Swans Circling. Kunstler Iceland "subsisting on blubber sandwiches". Faber on the US

October 13, 2008 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: SKF , DUG , UDN

I got some UltraShorts OUTPERFORMed in the last few minutes of trading today. I am still short and in cash. I would like to get back into SKF at some point.   [more]

Recs

9

I am NOT going LONG on Friday (maybe DUG or GLD)

October 10, 2008 – Comments (5)

At 0300AM Eastern a hedge fund manager (Electic?) said something on CNBC, that is going to keep me short and in cash until next week. It is a rumor, not sure how accurate. I want to wait on the sidelines until it is cleared up

Recs

10

I am Going LONG Tomorrow.

October 09, 2008 – Comments (17)

I might be early and the risks are high. Bush is speaking. Paulson may declare marshal law via Bush, Gold may be confiscated and outlawed, the war maybe expanded, capitial may flee the economy, the market may sell off to 6-7k.  [more]

Recs

13

Buying a "stack of macks" and the Dark Bailout

October 09, 2008 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , SKF , GOLD

I sold my SKF position yesterday. Now I feel alone, naked and vulnerable. It was an accident, I wanted to reduce my exposure, but accidentally unloaded the whole position….I fear the corrupt cartel of the FED and Treasury to venture back in SKF at $150+++. Who knows what corrupt financial magic and/or misguided interventions they may dictate to undermine my love of SKF?   [more]

Recs

5

Pas d’Argent, Pas de Suisse by William S. Lind

October 09, 2008 – Comments (2)

I guess I will continue my week of violence related posts. As I have stated before, the most important decision you should take on before investing is addressing the War.    [more]

Recs

8

Lehman Brothers CEO gets Knocked Out.

October 08, 2008 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: LEH

I guess it did not take long to answer my post from 8 Oct 08 (Ref:  And how long does it take a hungry public to turn mean?)  [more]

Recs

5

Marc Faber on Bloomberg Video Today. You are Ordered to Watch IT!

October 08, 2008 – Comments (2)

As the #2 CAPS player with 8500 points, I am using my authority to provide a General Order to Fooldom.

I hereby order all Fools to Watch Marc Faber on Bloomberg Video today.  [more]

Recs

12

And how long does it take a hungry public to turn mean?

October 08, 2008 – Comments (2)

I am #2 in CAPS via points, closing SPECBEAR. It is a burden not a blessing. I am uber Bearish, it means my view of recession, loss jobs, lose wages, debt serfdom, loss wealth etc... are coming to pass. I live in the US, I do not want to see these things. However, to many lies, liars and a ridiculous "borrow and spend" economy and "that which is ridiculous has to come to an end". 

Many Fools that follow my posts know what I think. I am posting another post by Jim Kunstler, to provide additionial support/views.   [more]

Recs

14

End of Brenton Woods Agreement

October 07, 2008 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD

Right now all I have in my pocket is $17 and change. Does that qualify me for a bailout?  [more]

Recs

8

No Alarms and No Surprises Please

October 06, 2008 – Comments (1)

No alarms and no surprises
Silent
  [more]

Recs

12

The Ponzi-Plus Plan by Jim Kunstler

October 05, 2008 – Comments (2)

Jim Kunstler writes like no one else. He posts once a week and it is worth the time to read, whether you are a Bull or a Bear.  [more]

Recs

12

Ron Paul Speaks Out Against the Bailout and The Limits of Power

October 04, 2008 – Comments (5)

Ron Paul Speaks Out Against the Bailout  [more]

Recs

17

Duck Tales Teaches us about Inflation and the Economy

October 03, 2008 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , SKF

Duck Tales Inflation Lesson 159k views with 5 stars. Watch the complete video you would not believe it.

   [more]

Recs

11

1929 Stock Market Crash

October 02, 2008 – Comments (1)

   [more]

Recs

7

On War: Part 4. The Hidden Cost of the War and The Limits of Power

October 02, 2008 – Comments (2)

The War is the Main issue affecting the economy and the US dollar, IMO. Greenspans low rates were in part to provide Americans enough heroine via easy credit and cheap money, to not object to the policy of the occupying of Iraq. No other issue is near as relevant as the war to America's economy.    [more]

Recs

4

On War: Part 4. The Hidden Cost of the War and The Limits of Power

October 02, 2008 – Comments (0)

The War is the Main issue affecting the economy and the US dollar, IMO. Greenspans low rates were in part to provide Americans enough heroine via easy credit and cheap money, to not object to the policy of the occupying of Iraq. No other issue is near as relevant as the war to America's economy.    [more]

Recs

9

Nouriel Roubini on BBC 01 Oct 08

October 01, 2008 – Comments (1)

Nouriel Roubini is one of the few that are telling the truth. He has been speaking about this since 2006. BBC does not allow the EMBED.

"several hundred banks will go bankrupt" 

The link is here.

HARDtalk US Bail-out Special

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1FnPOYUA3w

Recs

8

Jim Rogers, David Tice, Gartman, 9/30/08; Ron Paul Misquoted on CNN 9/30/08

October 01, 2008 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , SKF

This was a great round up of Bloomberg 9/30/08. Lots of Gold recommendation. I can support that, PHYSICAL gold held in a personnel safe.   [more]

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