EVEREST failed and I don't see this stock climbing back any time soon. The usual pattern with these failures is an initial severe drop followed by gradual erosion for months, so I figure I might as well eat the loss now.
I got what I expected out of the pick. Unfortunately the drop in the S&P dinged my points, which I don't think is really fair since Entremed sunk back down purely on its own merits, or lack thereof. But I'll be there again for the next breathless press release.
Another prediction came true, to a degree even beyond my expectations. Unfortunately work is busy today and I missed the top, losing about 30 CAPS points in each direction as I reversed to a thumbs down. Hepatitis C is clearly proving itself as an agent of change. I expect the next major change for Pharmasset will be downward, however, as R7128 is either shown to cause hepatotoxicity or is simply not as effective as hoped for in later stage trials. See Vertex or Idenix for similar stories. [more]
I caught this stock right at the top of the pump and dump based on the intentional misrepresentation by forces unknown of the ASH poster as new positive data, rather than what it really was (the failed SONOMA-2 trial). The price didn't go all the way back down but the stock is again trading below cash value and seems to have stabilized, so it's time to end the pick. Also, there's always a chance SONOMA-3 will be positive and I don't want to get tied up in that on a short. [more]