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February 2010

Recs

9

Medivation: Starting to Look Like an Interesting Options Play

February 03, 2010 – Comments (15) | RELATED TICKERS: MDVN

The reason for this post is upcoming data for Medivation's dementia drug candidate dimebon from the phase III CONNECTION trial, expected later in the first half of 2010. I want to concentrate on options trading in this post so I won't get too deeply into the background of Medivation and dimebon. For that I'll refer you here - baby biotech journalism just doesn't get any better. I'll add my own personal prejudice - I'm skeptical. Dimebon, or dimebolin, is an antihistamine which has been used in Russia for about 30 years for that purpose. The promising clinical data on which all current dimebon optimism is based was generated in Russia. There is no track record for use of antihistamines to treat dementia and Russia is not the most reliable place in the world. Does that mean that there aren't compelling arguments that the CONNECTION trial will have positive results? Of course not. But as objective biotech investors we should be looking for the best odds of a profit from any binary catalyst.  [more]

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