Pain has been a painful disappointment, and I feel lucky to get out of this pick in the green. Despite positive phase III data for Remoxy, the stock has gone nowhere. The FDA may take issue with the phase III design which compared Remoxy to placebo. Furthermore, it's questionable whether Remoxy is even abuse resistant. In 5/08 an FDA panel will review Purdue's updated abuse-resistant formulation of Oxycontin which could make Remoxy spurious. And finally, something is clearly wrong in development of Oxytrex, which has not been mentioned in the last few quarterly statements as it sits awaiting initiation of phase III. [more]
I'm closing this underperform pick which has performed well for me largely due to the small cap biotech sector swoon rather than any specific negative catalyst. The stock is now barely trading above cash and could pop with positive interim results, even though I think long-term prospects of the company are very poor. I think the best strategy to maximize my CYCC points is to let it pop then rate it underperform again.
Incyte has hit a price level that I like a lot better for the current pipeline. Now I'm going to get aggressive, turn around and give it a thumbs up. There's definitely an ongoing potential for short term pain, but we're at a very early stage of the life cycle and at some point Incyte is going back into the teens. There's also a potential for a monster gap up a la Pharmasset or Rigel with impressive phase II data.
I'm ending this pick to take some advantage of a day in which small-cap biotech is getting completely massacred out of proportion to the S&P. Progenics is still somewhat overpriced by my model based on their pipeline and degree of risk, but they've fallen very far and fairly fast since I made my pick six months ago. In addition there are numerous potential positive catalysts in the near term, including possible subcu methylnaltrexone approval in 4/08 and phase II data for oral methylnaltrexone and pro140. [more]
I don't have any specific reason for ending this underperform today, except that I was waiting for it to go below 5. We're now at the level Dendreon likes to bottom feed at before spiking on some perceived positive news. I'm going to resist the temptation to be greedy, take my points, and wait for another spike in the first half of 2008 before shorting it again going into IMPACT results.