More than two months ago, I announced my new approach to small-cap biotech investing to a breathless and adoring crowd (in other words, sirwanksalot). As much to monitor my own progress as for any other reason, it seems logical to deliver periodic updates on the strategy. I identified twelve biotechs with potential bottoms, and invested in three (as well as one other that I will mention at the end of the post). Here's the progress report: [more]
Last week, to the great ennui of the CAPS community, I began a new blog series to address the underlying science behind baby biotech. I kicked things off with the fascinating subject of hepatitis C and the protease inhibitor telaprevir, being developed by Vertex. To develop the subject of protease inhibitors further I'll discuss the laggards in the field, Merck’s boceprevir and Intermune’s ITMN-191. [more]
1. Make a large purchase of a high-flying biotech stock just before the phase III trial results.
2. Go to the computer a few mornings later and find that the wonder drug significantly underperformed placebo in the phase III trial and your brokerage account has been cut in half.
3. On your next visit to the restroom you will excrete a perfectly formed diamond.
Two or three of you might have read my blog post ahead of the results of the phase III CONNECTION trial of Medivation's Dimebon in Alzheimer's disease, or maybe it was only Portefeuille. I never bought the puts I was analyzing because the premium seemed to just keep increasing despite an increasing share price and shortened time to expiration. But as it turned out, I should have pulled the trigger. The timing was perfect, the data was bad, and the stock tanked. Just to close the circle, I wanted to go back and look at the put prices before and after the phase III data was released. The last prices I had written down were in late February, courtesy of Portefeuille. [more]
In the spirit of a recent excellent post on Anadys Pharamceuticals and their experimental hepatitis drug ANA598, I’ve decided to do a little more in depth analysis of the hepatitis C field and share it with my CAPS compatriots. I’m hoping to eventually find the time to describe the hepatitis C programs of about ten developmental biotechs as well as a few competing compounds from large cap companies. But first, a little background. [more]