I may be jumping ship on Progenics a little early, but I think there will be some growing skepticism about the true size of the market for Relistor in terminally-ill patients with opiate induced constipation. It's hard to know where the top is, but I predict some pullback will occur in the months before the company books any revenues. Another major short-term catalyst is the May 10 PDUFA for Adolor's Entereg, which if approved could put a substantial dent in Relistor profits. [more]
I would have loved to get out at 14.5 as it was clear from the weak pop that skepticism abounds regarding the potential of Treximet to generate revenues. But the one week minimum prevented that, yet another way that CAPS discriminates against small cap biotech players (some of the best picks are between 50 and 100M market cap). The real life calls paid off extremely well however, which does somewhat soothe the pain of my permanently red rating.
After nine months of stagnation, I'm giving up on this underperform which of course means that the share price will drop off the map within a week. Buyers beware. I'm still not a believer but the company has reported near completion of enrollment of the phase III Preos trial, although it wasn't mentioned in the last quarterly statement. And I don't think the market responded appropriately to what was essentially a negative phase III result for Gattex. However no new short or midterm catalysts are expected for Gattex, with a new phase III trial planned for Q3 2008. Therefore I'll lock in my positive score and await an upward move, planning another underperform. [more]
It's a little hard to figure out whether the decline in price was related more to the arimoclomol clinical hold, the small cap biotech swoon, or the RXi spinoff. Either way, there's not a lot to keep driving the price down and a lot of things that could send it back up. The FDA could lift the clinical hold, small cap biotech will likely recover quickly once market liquidity improves, and a strong performance from RXi will continue to benefit CytRx.
I'm ending the pick because after today's events, I simply have no idea how to valuate the company. As far as I know the price is equally likely to rise or fall, so I'm going to take my points and go home.
The retreat from unreasonable highs on phase I data appears to have slowed at a much more reasonable market cap. Small cap biotechs rarely maintain stable stock prices in the absence of positive catalysts, and Pharmasset hasn't had much to say lately. The stock will likely trade in a narrow range until more data becomes available for R7128 or clevudine. If it leaves the 16-20 range, I'll be back in to pursue my destiny as score leader.
I think at this point all value related to Ipilimumab and related compounds can be written off. However, the company still has substantial assets related to its monoclonal antibody platform which are difficult to valuate and could generate upward stock mobility in the near future.