I liked this company but the market didn't. Apparently Bristol-Myers agreed with me and not the market. Quite a nice pick-up for Bristol-Myers considering the discount the market gave them in the absence of any negative catalysts. I don't see much movement from here so I'll simplify my CAPS portfolio and close the pick.
Entereg got approved, but I still scored on the pick. No point in pushing my luck on Progenix, which I'm expecting to remain range-bound for the time being. But I'll be back to the well before long ...
As I predicted, FavId was a failure, but I never expected the degree of sell-off that we're seeing today. Hard to believe so many people saw a future in this company after the weak interim results. Now that the stock is trading at 50% of cash, I think it's a good idea to end the pick and leave the remaining 7 or 8 points I could get from bankruptcy on the table.
I got everything I could have asked for out of this pick, and I've seen the share price hit 40 and bounce back down a couple of times now. The most recent run-up seems to be on buyout rumors, but I'm going to bet against the rumors and try and exit at a high point. Strong revenues for Naglazyme, Aldurazyme, and Kuvan seem to be baked into the share price and there would seem to be more downside than upside. If it goes below 35 again I'll probably get back in.
I don't think XOMA is going down to 1 any more, considering the stock has survived the vaporization of the Neuprex program and the complete absence of news on HCD-122. Future prospects related to antibody royalties are simply too difficult to predict for a retail investor given the complexity and opacity of the relationships with larger pharmaceutical companies. This forces me to rely on price momentum and analyst opinion, both of which seem favorable to XOMA at the present time. [more]
Alkermes may still be a good long-term story but I was surprised that the market didn't punish the stock more for the loss of the AIR insulin program. In the short-term, the stock price will now be more dependent on Risperdal Consta revenues which were down quarter to quarter last statement, ascribed to "lumpiness" in the distribution stream. ALKS 27 and ALKS 29 seem to be moving through the pipeline slower than I would like and their progress is infrequently referred to. Exenatide LAR similarly seems to be somewhat of a wild card. I'll lock in a positive score here and look for another potential buy in below 10 on the typical small-cap biotech drift. [more]