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July 2011



Bottoms up!

July 29, 2011 – Comments (12) | RELATED TICKERS: ANAC.DL , CUR

Is the long-awaited serpent's egg finally hatching? Or is this another summer doldrum soon to be reversed and new highs achieved? I've watched with amazement as the markets shook off the housing crisis, the financial crisis, the European crisis, and the tsunami/nuclear crisis despite the continuing dependence of our fragile economic recovery on rampant deficit spending. I benefited to a large degree but also waved goodbye to tens of thousands in hedges. Now of course, with my hedges wiped out, we can finally revisit the disaster of early 2009. But all is not lost - I've been liquidating heavily over the last month and I have a substantial cash hoard to attack with should valuations once again become absurdly low. Towards that end I've identified two new stocks for the GBMB watchlist.  [more]



Hot summer bottoms

July 18, 2011 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: SIGAQ , CYTR , CYCC

We're having quite an interesting summer in the world of baby biotech and small pharma. Probably the biggest surprise, at least for me, was FDA approval of Acura's Oxecta coupled with rejection of Pain Therapeutics' Remoxy. Just more evidence that trying to predict the outcome of FDA approval decisions is a doomed trading strategy. Several stocks in my database have run their GBMB course - Transcept has flamed out on rejection of Intermezzo, although not before peaking at 11.73 which would have been a nice double for those sharp enough to have picked them up at my GBMB threshold of 6 (which I didn't do myself). Meanwhile Idera has decided to go the route of Altus and Aryx, sequentially failing in each of their clinical endeavors. I won't call my Idera pick a mistake - I still believe they were underpriced for prospects when I bought them, but the pipeline simply hasn't worked out. That setback hasn't kept me from searching for new prospects for the GBMB, and I've identified several new promising candidates. I'm going to depart from my usual formula when discussing SIGA as there is a rather complicated and fascinating story that has led to my decision to buy the stock.  [more]

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