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December 2007



Closing GTOP (Genitope) underperform

December 28, 2007 – Comments (0)

Another wildly successful biotech underperform. And I've still got a few coming down the pike - see FVRL, ACEL, TELK, etc. If only it was this easy to call the winners. In regards to the CEO trying to put a shine on a turrrd with his post-results discussion, that optimistic crapola about subsets analysis and highly significant results is pure boilerplate you'll see in every press release after every phase III trail failure. Don't expect Genitope to rebound any time soon.   [more]



Closing NBIX (Neurocrine Biosciences) underperform

December 26, 2007 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: NBIX

So Indiplon flopped again and the stock took a haircut. How many lives do they have? They've bought themselves enough time to get other products into phase II, so hope springs eternal. I still think the stock is overvalued but the selling seems to have leveled off, and in the interest of simplicity I'm ending the pick. I may short again with more irrational exuberance. The underperforms definitely seem to constitute most of the big winners in biotech. Too bad I trade from my 401K and can't short in real life, because that seems to lead to the most predictable wins.  [more]



Closing FOLD (Amicus) underperform

December 20, 2007 – Comments (2)

I really don't have any idea what happened to this stock today. You don't often see a 45% price drop after a biotech reports a "positive" phase II trial. I wonder how much the stock would have gone up if the trial had failed. My only clue on this is that all the company would say about the clinical response was "renal and cardiac function results were encouraging". That's not exactly data. Either way the company was overvalued before and now seems appropriately valued assuming they are progressing to a phase III trial. But either there's been a huge misunderstanding, or someone got some insider info in the last 24 hours with the huge price drop. Either way, I'm going to cover my short now and wait for the dust to clear. Hopefully one of the Brians can provide a little analysis.   [more]



Closing RDYN (Replidyne) underperform

December 10, 2007 – Comments (0)

I still can't see any future for Replidyne. I think faropenem is in big trouble, and they are way behind a lot of other small caps in their early stage drugs for MRSA and c.diff. But right now, the stock is trading just a few million bucks above cash so I think the steep part of the drop is over. I could watch it continue to trail down over the years, but I'm following a lot of companies right now and I need to concentrate on my high gainers. I don't want to lose my Replidyne CAPS points because I'm not watching closely enough and then it pops on a positive phase II study.  [more]



Closing ADLR (Adolor) outperform

December 10, 2007 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: ADLR.DL

I think I called this one pretty well. I'm ending the pick now because I don't think the Pfizer deal is worth quite what the Street is giving. Momentum is still good so I may not be catching the top, but I'm trying not to be greedy. The 33CL230 trial data is now much more dangerous as is the Entereg PDUFA decision. I may short if the market cap goes over 300M without new positive catalysts.



Closing ALTH (Allos Therapeutics) outperform

December 10, 2007 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: ALTH.DL

I think the party may be over for Allos, at least for a while. They've had a nice run since I picked them just before they released interim data for PROPEL, and I think they're now overpriced given the high degree of risk. They may have another upward movement with interim safety data released from PROPEL by the end of 2007, after which I'll probably short them if the price hasn't already trailed down substantially. Another reason I'm selling is that I simply have too many active picks to follow closely, and I need to close some of my lower yielders.  [more]

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