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June 2009



Reforming Healthcare: Heading for the Emergency room

June 27, 2009 – Comments (8)

"The Economist" has a pretty reasonable article about health care - which is unusual for this magazine. Looks like HMOs now have trouble selling their propaganda even to our staunchest allies from "Airstrip One".  [more]



An "infliction point" from GV

June 25, 2009 – Comments (7)

EWT is now again demonstrating its prediction power. Weeding out several tons of comments from CIL and discarding the A,B,C,1,3,5, I, III, V, (1), (2), (3), (4), (A), (B), (c), a, b, c mumbo-jumbo, we finally end up with this beautiful insight from GV: tomorrow the market will go up or down. I can guarantee you that GV is 100% right. I am going to make the same call. Even though I don't know EWT, I feel the risk-reward ratio is clearly in my favor. When the market does go up or down, even the last skeptics will see how perfect EWT is at predicting tomorrow's market movements.  [more]



Should we take away Crookman's Nobel Prize?

June 20, 2009 – Comments (4)

Just wanted a community opinion (my vote is for number 1) 


1. Yes, all he has ever done was writing articles for NYT using a pseudo-scientific vernacular to make people believe that he is smart.

2. No, he is an honest economist, he made a discovery in the field of international trade, and I can even formulate what it was that he discovered. 




Call still on track

June 17, 2009 – Comments (0)

Still remain reasonably confident in my 14000 call. Though there was a 3% drop this week, it is not inconsistent with the picture of a rising market. Of course I'm not going all in because even if 14000 is the most likely outcome it doesn't mean we are destined to go up in a straight line. One would have to be crazy to use leverage at this point...



Apologies for bearish call gone sour, and a new Obama plan that is not a plan and not new.

June 13, 2009 – Comments (13)

My Iran election call has proved wrong. Though I did not underestimate the effectiveness of "yes we can" rhetoric, I forgot that what matters is not how many votes you get, but how you count these votes. If seems for now that the "democtatization" of Iran has been postponed, which is good for oil prices, but increases risks to my Dow 14000 call.   [more]



Who didn't believe my Iran prediction?

June 12, 2009 – Comments (1)

It was an easy call because I knew that "yes we can" demagogy has the same appeal in Iran as in our own neck of the woods. I have witnessed something of the sort in Russia, and I know that this type of demagogy can only be countered by a similar rabid demagory of the Communist/Fashist/Islamic variety. Otherwise it will remain unstoppable for the next 5-10 years, by which time the bony hand of hunger usually succeeds in removing the last remaining fools that have bought into it.  [more]



The game is up for Iran - and for the peak oil scare

June 11, 2009 – Comments (6)

As Philip of Macedon famously stated, any fortress can be taken if only a little donkey laden with gold can make his way up to it. Obama has obviously taken his clue from Philip, and Mousavi is now making his way up to the Iranian fortress. The capitulation date is tomorrow. How is this relevant to the market's tug-of-war between bulls and bears? The removal of the old guard - and the war premium baked in the oil price - is going to take away the speculators' excuse for pumping up the price of crude that is now overflowing the storage tanks for the lack of buyers. The oil market is long overdue for a correction. And it's starting as early as tomorrow.  [more]



Crazy crowd

June 10, 2009 – Comments (1)

I can't help wondering what makes popular vote at "predict the market" poll run by TMFJake change every day from 60% up to 60% down and vice versa? Does it suggest that some 20% of players change their opinion every day based on a market fluctuation in the last 24 hours? That's not the way to play this market. These hourly trends is just random noise.



More bullish news ahead

June 10, 2009 – Comments (5)

We are now going to have some more consumer reports and an election in Iran. As for the former, I confidently predict that they will beat expectations because the rising stock market has made everyone but me feel happy and cheerful. As for the latter, the Obama Administration is clearly going to score its first diplomatic victory this weekend by putting its stooge in charge of one of the major oil suppliers - a point overlooked by the bearish part of the financial media. The oil stocks, though, could drop after the Iran election, and the next week could be bearish for the commodities sector (I hope DWI closes his picks in time).  [more]



It works! It really does!

June 09, 2009 – Comments (13)

Now, tired of guiding subscribers from one paper loss to another, Tom Gardner has finally admitted that LTBH doesn't work. And this is where I beg to disagree. The MF has been touting Buffett's example for years, but it didn't occur to them that the real Buffett would never have started to emulate Buffett until the moment the cult of Buffett has faded. That moment has finally arrived. With the formely permabullish Tom Gardner guiding the lemmings into complicated option strategies, we are now witnessing very obvious signs of capitulation on LTBHers' part. The road is clear. Rather than follow the pied piper, it is now time to adopt LTBH as the only working strategy for the next decade. As to the "Pro" subscribers, they are chasing the next hot strategy that will work wonders for them two years ago (the choice of verb tense in this sentence is deliberate, because this is the rationale behind this new strategy - they are still preparing for the last war). Now is the time to buy and forget about the market for 10 years.  [more]



Taxes: who gets and who pays (response to donnernv)

June 08, 2009 – Comments (10)

So first things first. I am not going to refute the numbers in that post by donnernv, or bother to check them. The numbers look believable, and it's quite enough for me.   [more]



A capitalist solution: free health care

June 05, 2009 – Comments (37)

Just wanted to make a point that will surely be anathema to our free-marketers, and to take my share of flak for it: a government-run health care system will not only be a good solution, but will also be MORE CAPITALIST than what we have now.  [more]



The one-star revolution is coming

June 04, 2009 – Comments (4)

In case you think those 5-star ratings are very meaningful, think again. To be rated 5 stars, a ticker must be recommended by many top players, and to be rated 1-star, it has to be mostly popular among low-rated players. However, the difference between these categories of players is not that great. For instance, if you have a 65% accuracy and a score of -150, you get a rating of 35. But if you improve that score by only 300 points, you get a score of +150, and your rating goes up to 85. The author of these lines had his score jump from 34 to 89 in just a couple of days, which, by the way, were not marked by any extensive stock picking on my part. I did not become any smarter or stupider during these two days, and my opinions on my (currently) 178 picks are still the same. But those same bets that looked suspicios for many months because they came from a low-rated player are now looking respectable because with my new rating, I now appear to be smart. So my red and green thumbs are now assigned more weight by the Caps program, and the 1-star tickers that I "bought" in Caps are now likely to see a promotion to 5-stardom? But the fundamentals of these stocks haven't changed since last week. I have seen many players' ratings undergo a dramatic change this month, and I now expect that many tickers will gain or lose stars in the coming weeks. So if you put your trust in the "collective intelligence" of Caps players, remember that this "collective intelligence" may be less meaningful than you think.  [more]



Achtung! German democracy is in danger!

June 04, 2009 – Comments (8)

Clearly, Germany is no longer a democracy after this speach by the Chancellor. We don't understand it yet, but soon NY Times will explain it to us, and then we'll see why it's the case.   [more]



Easiest market ever

June 02, 2009 – Comments (5)

You don't need any investment thesises. This market wants to go up. Period. Don't waste points arguing with the market. It won't always be that way, so don't get carried away and don't use margin. Don't worry trying to call the top, though, it won't be any easier than calling the bottom, and most people calling the top will get burned. When the market decides to correct, you will see some very clear indication.



14000 call still on track

June 01, 2009 – Comments (8)

The first 6 months have not been kind to my Jan 1 prediction of Dow 14000 by the end of December. And yet, having considered all pros and contras, I now have more confidence in my call than I did 6 months ago. The tables have turned, and the dynamics of the bear market of 2008-9 is now being replayed in reverse. When we see a top, 97% of players will have turned into permabulls. Too many people shorting what seemed to them like an overpriced market have forgotten that under every point of the Dow from 6000 to 14000 there lies buried a very bright short trader who understood just how overpriced the market was back then.   [more]



He is providing interest rate guidance for central banks. But he doesn't know how compound interest is calculated.

June 01, 2009 – Comments (2)

John B. Taylor could well benefit from a crash course in Precalculus, where they discuss stuff like exponential functions. In this paper, he writes:  [more]



Well, there you go. Didn't I say that BK of GM will drive the market up?

June 01, 2009 – Comments (3)

A new maximum on S&P today, and my score is back to positive.

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