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June 2010



How Buffett blew his Kraft investment

June 10, 2010 – Comments (6)

Buffett's purchase of BNI was a mistake on many counts: he bought a useless railroad company with no future, he mistimed it, he overpaid for it. But it was also a mistake in terms of opportunity cost. Buffett had already owned his best investment opportunity, and missed his chance to complete the purchase for roughly the same amount of money that he instead misspent on BNI.   [more]



Covering up the thieves

June 09, 2010 – Comments (2)

Fresh news reports emerge about the Hermitage case (in which $230 M was stolen by a gang of Interior Ministry officers and a lawyer died in jail after refusing to change his testimony against the thieves). The articles below are rather long, but here is the gist of it. It appears that when puppet president Medvedev ordered his officials to investigate the lawyer's death, he thought carefully which one of the thousands of officials available is best fit to handle the case, and concluded that the leader of the gang was the best man for the job. The gang leader took on the investigation and soon found that the gang was right and its accusers were wrong. Then again, this outcome looks somewhat predictable, does it not?  [more]



Still 50% bullish, 50% bearish.

June 05, 2010 – Comments (11)

portefeuille has recently asked if I'm abandoning my middle-of-the-road position. I am not. I remain (moderately) bullish on America and bearish on all international markets except Britain. There will be a change in this position at some point in the future when the Euro drops to 90 cents. I will then green-thumb foreign markets and become neutral or bearish on America, depending on the S&P market cap. But meanwhile here is the situation that we have now.  [more]



Somalia: what went wrong?

June 04, 2010 – Comments (12)

I thought I might ask this question to the libertarian-leaning Fools. Somalia should have been a Libertarian dream: government is either absent altogether as some people would claim, or, according to others, makes sporadic appearances in the capital city every other year and goes back into hibernation. Under these favorable conditions, one might expect rivers of milk and honey, and yet every time Somalia makes the headlines, it's due to its pirates. I don't know the Libertarian take on Somalia but as I see it, here are all the possible ways that a Libertarian could explain this paradox:  [more]



No change in opinion

June 04, 2010 – Comments (5)

Everything goes as expected so far, except the price of gold. The bull market at home should resume soon. The bear market abroad is just starting.

The Euro reached 1.20 today. The first half of the way from 1.50 to 0.90 is behind us. The second half is still ahead.  



Ahmadinezhad is a buy-high-sell-low currency trader

June 02, 2010 – Comments (0)

Sold dollars and bought euros last fall at $1.50 to spite America, now selling euros and buying the hated dollars in panic because the euro is going down. What a lemming! 

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