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starbucks4ever (97.89)

July 2009

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1

Subprime lenders

July 29, 2009 – Comments (3)

This is just a question: Are there still any publicly traded subprime mortgage companies left? 

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And they said that buy-and-hold is dead...

July 24, 2009 – Comments (3)

It seems like the rumors of its death have been slightly exaggerated. On the other hand, esoteric charting strategies are definitely beginning to acquire cadeverous look...

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5

Well, here you go. Didn't I tell you that GS would raid the shorts' accounts?

July 23, 2009 – Comments (0)

So easy to see, and yet so few people were prepared...

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3

Separate but equal (two conflicting healthcare proposals)

July 22, 2009 – Comments (4)

It is sad that the two parties cannot work out a compromise way of not getting healthcare. I have an idea. Let us deny coverage to Republicans separately and to Democrats separately, in a way that's most acceptable to the respective parties. Thus Republicans will be spared the heathcare tax, and will be given the opportunity to make an out-of-pocket payment to HMOs for the denial of healthcare. On the other hand, Democrats will not pay out of pocket but instead will be liable for obamataxes, and will get healthcare denied by the HMOs that will in turn get paid by the government intermediary. I think this will be a beautiful solution that will fall nicely under the category of "separate but equal". The fact that in the end healthcare will be denied by HMOs to both parties alike will guarantee equality, and the freedom to sign up or not to sign up for obamacare will guarantee the "separate" part. This would be a great example of democracy in action. I think we should all respect each other's differences because I strongly believe that there should exist more than way of getting no healthcare.   [more]

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What's the best way to deploy foreign reserves?

July 22, 2009 – Comments (2)

Suppose that your government finally woke up to the reality of Fed printing that devalues your foreign reserves, and decided to finally deploy them. What's your best strategy then?  [more]

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Putin gets his Yukosgate

July 21, 2009 – Comments (2)

Very interesting... The ex-PM's unusual boldness could mean that Putin is becoming a burden to his new boss...  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e3db7f1e-7548-11de-9ed5-00144feabdc0.html 

Mikhail Kasyanov, the former Russian prime minister, has for the first time disclosed details of a closed-door conversation he claims he had with Vladimir Putin in which the then president revealed political motives for the state’s legal pursuit of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the jailed former Yukos tycoon.  [more]

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Bursting of bubbles will continue, only someplace else

July 21, 2009 – Comments (11)

So the recession is over and bears are still staring in disbelief unable to comprehend what happened. But it was all very predicatable. As long as Asian creditors provided financing to Bernanke & Co to plug in every gaping hole, Bernanke & Co could speep peacefully. Can you drive your car off a cliff and still have a soft landing? Sure, it is very possible. All it takes is to convince just one person to stand under the cliff just as your car is landing on his head. And this is the real truth behind the Party's slogan "Yes we can".  [more]

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This is what I think after today's action...

July 20, 2009 – Comments (1)

The advise "don't catch a falling knife" will be incomplete without its counterpart: don't fall on a rising knife. The latter is far more dangerous than the former.

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Sorry, I just keep harping on the same string

July 19, 2009 – Comments (1)

...But China's flawed treasury strategy is just too important...  [more]

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Humor In The Workplace

July 18, 2009 – Comments (3)

They will certainly need it, especially the Bureau of Public debt. Although, the numbers they publish reveal their strong sense of humor anyway.   [more]

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And now the wave theory tells you to buy...

July 17, 2009 – Comments (2)

Now, not Schrodinger's wave theory, but Elliotts. Last time we reached 790, it gave a sell signal. Then we continued to go up, and when we went above 927, it generated a buy signal (yes, I know, that was according to one of the preferred counts). Then we dropped under 900, and it gave a sell signal. Then we reached 930 again, and it gave another buy signal. When the market was falling, this theory worked wonders. But when the trend changed, it immediately became yet another theory telling you how to sell low and buy high.   [more]

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Marginal utility vs LTV

July 16, 2009 – Comments (26)

The beauty of the competitive free market is that in the absence of interference it makes it possible to dispose of "Marginal Utility" prices. This is why I have respect for competitive free markets in the first place.  [more]

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What's wrong with Mises's critique of socialism

July 14, 2009 – Comments (65)

A major misconception by the free-market fundamentalists is that central planning is mathematically impossible. So they consider the Soviet example, and imagine that if only they look at Gosplan's "source code" hard enough, they will inevitably discover some bug. So they write esays like this (http://www.mises.org/pdf/econcalc.pdf), failing to point to any real bugs, but making general claims that the source code must be full of them. Theis basic argument is this: programming is hard, and they are trying to write programs, so their code must be buggy and therefore their system must crash. And when the system does crash, they are quick to claim victory, and the fact that the crash can actualy be attributed to a fire in the server room never bothers them.  [more]

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Mises paper

July 09, 2009 – Comments (5)

Here is the paper that some think has "proved" the impossibility of central planning. A proof it is not. It offers some valid criticism and also some trivial nitpicking. Overall, the paper has left me unimpressed. When push comes to shove, Mises fails to address the real problem with socialist planning, and launches a hopeless attack against the enemy's strongest point.   [more]

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Most ridiculous budget-balancing calculator ever

July 09, 2009 – Comments (7)

When I read this post, I immediately said to myself: "surely they will present us with 2 options: a) Sell 10% of children born this year to a pork-processing plant to raise some cash, and b) Shut down the sewage system in LA to cut expences." So I looked at this budget calculator, and sure enough, it was exactly as I thought. No realistic taxing option ever found its way into this calculator, and no realistic expence-cutting option. So, Mr. Governator, please remove exaggerated histrionics from your calculators: I am not going to shed any tears while listening to the screams and lamentations of the richest people in the world.   [more]

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4

China falling apart?

July 08, 2009 – Comments (8)

The ethnic unrest in a western province is just another reminder of the risks posed by Chinese stocks.

How many of you think China will still be around by 2020? Many Romans must have owned investments in Carthage in 149 B.C. Three years later the county was no longer there...

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Explanation is needed

July 06, 2009 – Comments (1)

I can't remember the number of times I heard this esoteric argument that China and others should purchase more treasuries to "protect" their dollar holdings. Does anybody have a clear explanation of how one is supposed to pull his chestnuts out of the fire by throwing more chestnuts into the fire? I admit I was never good at Hegelian dialectics :) 

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Buy gas at 350, sell at 190

July 06, 2009 – Comments (0)

This article summarizes all that's wrong with Gazprom. Buying Azeri gas for $350 in order to sell it to Europe for the current price of $190 doesn't seem like a viable business model. I wonder what percentage of the price difference has changed hands between the signatories in a dark room.  [more]

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Four legs good, two legs better

July 03, 2009 – Comments (0)

So the Fool is now into asset management, with a new mutual fund? This is the most dramatic change in the party line ever since shareholders of the Animal Farm cooperative saw Squeeler walking on his hind legs. 

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EWT was predicting it all along. Not.

July 02, 2009 – Comments (6)

You would think that Elliott theory is a good trading tool. Had you listened to Goodvibe, you would have thouroughly enjoyed today's plunge, right?  [more]

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