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starbucks4ever (97.18)

October 2009

Recs

5

The big-enders vs. the little-enders

October 31, 2009 – Comments (3)

Discussions like this always remind me of the great debate between the big-enders and the little-enders, who can never come to an agreement about the right way to break an egg.  [more]

Recs

10

Unexpected correction, with nothing to explain it.

October 30, 2009 – Comments (19)

Things are not going very well. Clearly, I was wrong to expect a consolidation in the 1100 range and we can already say that what's really happening is very different. And first of all I must congratulate player GoodVibe who accomplished a task that was next to impossible by successfully calling what is, at the very least, A top, if not THE top. Hats off to those who can read it from tea leaves, animal entrails, stock chart, or any other paper or electronic media.   [more]

Recs

6

And you wonder why C is doing worse than GS

October 27, 2009 – Comments (2)

There are certain disadvantages to NOT having your ex-CEO run the Department of the Treasury. For example, when your CDOs go sour you have to accept the current market price for them, without having the Treasury pay you 100 cents on the dollar. Citibank should consider making a larger investment in the Treasury Department officials, it would benefit the shareholders more than all the current restructuring efforts.  [more]

Recs

39

Well, there you go: a 1% drop, and they are already discussing the public option

October 26, 2009 – Comments (6)

S&P 1500: Public option? In this country? Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!  [more]

Recs

6

Valuations matter...until they don't

October 25, 2009 – Comments (8)

The key to making money in the market is to buy a stock when it's undervalued and to sell when it's overvalued. Or at least that is the blanket statement used by the so-called professionals.  [more]

Recs

6

Idiot of the day: GS vice-chairman

October 23, 2009 – Comments (0)

Not even because what he said was a most obvious lie: we all know the real value of his insight that "Bankers' soaring pay is an investment in the economy" (sic!), and we all knew that this is exactly what the guy must be thinking, but because he didn't have enough brains to keep his thoughts in private.   [more]

Recs

5

Stocks dropping on healthcare news?

October 21, 2009 – Comments (2)

At least one poster suggests as much: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=280648&t=01004525939372753684&source=ihpsitcag0000002#comment280860  I personally don't buy it. If anything, the dynamics of it is quite the opposite. It will take a massive plunge to Dow 4,000 to force parteigenossen to shelve Baucus' plan and take back the 900 billion gift that he was going to give to the insurance industry.  [more]

Recs

13

I also want to call the top

October 20, 2009 – Comments (13)

Surely, I also want to claim my 15 minutes of fame. Why should GoodVibe alone have all the glory? My call is not going to be a cryptic conditional statement with 26 shades of meaning. It will be a clear statement in plain English that has one, and only one meaning. My position is unchanged from Jan 1, 2009. As I stated then and repeat now, I continue to place the top at Dow 14,000.   [more]

Recs

6

This is not irrational exuberance yet

October 19, 2009 – Comments (4)

It is getting close, but we are not there yet. Currently, the market is definitely overpriced but its mood is still best described as rational exuberance. Here I must strongly disagree with GoodVibe's call and suggest instead that the final parabolic stage of the rally is still ahead of us. Those of you who are calling the top here have no idea just how far the euphoria takes the market once it sets in. How about Coca-Cola at a PE of 40? MSFT at a PE of 60? PETS.com at a PE of -4, the minus sign because earnings are negative and the low absolute value because the denominator is so big numerically? Don't worry, ladies and gentlemen, we'll see all of that and even more. And of course it will all end in another crash, but the bears' challenge meanwhile will be to survive to see that day. Very few of them will. Most of them will have their accounts liquidated after a series of failed attempts to short the market at what appears to be the top.  [more]

Recs

8

Idiot of the day: the mayor of Moscow

October 18, 2009 – Comments (5)

This time the Idiot of the day award goes abroad. Gogol was certainly right to mention the roads and the fools as the two main problems that country is facing, but I guess it's more the fools than the roads.  [more]

Recs

4

Why GS is better than Buffett

October 17, 2009 – Comments (6)

Its ability to generate positive revenue from "Trading and principal investments" with such consistency makes Warren look like an incompetent bumbler.  [more]

Recs

4

Sorry, TA people, but it's NOT a calf.

October 14, 2009 – Comments (1)

Don't even try waving red cloth in front of this bull as it charges toward its 14000 target. It's most definitely NOT a calf, whatever your TA analysis says. The bears are just slowly coming to recognition of the fact that we're not going back to 666. So we're just past the first stage of the bull market - disbelief - and are entering the second stage - recognition, which should keep us busy for another couple of months. And the third stage will be irrational exuberance.

Recs

8

Russian statistics: shooting the messenger

October 14, 2009 – Comments (0)

Say goodbye to green shoots - and to the Head of Statistics Service who brought the news.   [more]

Recs

18

This market will disappoint bulls and bears alike, but not in the way they expect

October 13, 2009 – Comments (5)

It looks like everybody here is preparing for the last war. We're going back to the doom and gloom of March! No, we're having another dot-com bubble, onward to Dow 36000! No, we're going back to the hyperinflation of 1970s! Who tells you that the market can't surprise you in a new and unexpected way?  [more]

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4

Idiot of the day: White House spokesman

October 12, 2009 – Comments (0)

So now, according to Reid Cherlin, senator Baucus emerges as a modern reincarnation of Robin Hood, taking money from the sheriff (those evil insurance companies) and giving it to the poor. The White House spokesman fails to notice that after every encounter with that Robin Hood of our times, the sheriff of Nottingham gets richer and the poor get, well, poorer. Mathematics is an exact science, and it tells us in no uncertain terms that when you pour more money into the system while squeezing the same amount of medical operations from the system, any excess money must stick to the parts of the system.  [more]

Recs

23

Surprised, humbled Nero awarded Nobel Prize

October 09, 2009 – Comments (8)

OSLO – Nero Claudius Caesar Augustus Germanicus won the 64 A.D. Nobel Prize in Literature on Friday in a stunning decision designed to build momentum behind his initiatives to promote fine arts, ease tensions within the writer's community, and stress good taste and inspiration rather than vulgarity.  [more]

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7

Idiot of the day: Associated Press Writers

October 09, 2009 – Comments (1)

That the Nobel Committee has long been reduced to just another political organization is not a secret to any attentive observer, but the party line still requires to keep up appearances. An open admission of its political motivation by the Associated Press goes against the party line, and it was an obvious blunder on the Prezident's part to describe the Nobel Committee in similar terms  [more]

Recs

10

An alternative introduction to goldminingXpert's book

October 07, 2009 – Comments (4)

How about this version? Less elegant, perhaps, but far closer to reality.  [more]

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13

Another idiot of the day

October 05, 2009 – Comments (9)

A special note for IQ-challenged AP business writers. Housing index is above the historical trendline. Stock valuations are above the historical trendline. End of story.   [more]

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3

Via is not for connoisseurs

October 04, 2009 – Comments (2)

Well, maybe I am an untypical consumer, but my conclusion after a taste test today is a strong "No" for the Via initiative. There IS a very strong difference in taste, and it is certainly not in favor of Via. I could tell the difference right away. Via could sell well in supermarkets like yet another instant coffee brand, but to put it alongside the authentic Starbucks brand would be a travesty. I have a hard time seeing how this thing will succeed. The people who could buy it are those who don't care about the taste of coffee, and once they don't care, they have a million cheaper options. And for the people who do care, Via just doesn't make the cut even if they start selling it for 50 cents a cup.   [more]

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4

A reformless reform?

October 04, 2009 – Comments (2)

This "reform" is very unusual in that nobody save a dozen of HMO execs who are now quitely drinking champagne, and some of the less bright HMO shareholders still hoping for a few crumbs from the CEOs' table, can call himself a beneficiary.     [more]

Recs

0

Comgades! The ggeat October Shareholder Gevolution that has been long advocated by the Gagdneg Bgothegs..is over!

October 03, 2009 – Comments (1)

The Fool's front page is alive with revolutionary proposals aimed at complete reorganization of the corrupt corporate structure. Now, I have no doubt that all 6 proposals put forth by Dayana Yochim are valid and we should all support these proposals. But in the end, a palliative solution almost never succeeds and in fact often does damage by helping sustain a structure that should really be brought down. And in discussing the effectiveness of various medicines intended to treat the symptoms, I feel that we forgot to address the main cause of the desease.   [more]

Recs

7

The market will do what it takes to cause greatest pain for the greatest number of players.

October 02, 2009 – Comments (8)

That's a truism, but it's still worth remembering. And in my opinion, what is likely to cause the greatest pain in this particular setup is NOT another drop to 666 and NOT a parabolic rise to 1500, but a great shakeout of the longs' positions FOLLOWED by that parabolic rise to 1500. What can be more painful than to hold the right stocks, only to sell them at a loss and see them skyrocket?   [more]

Recs

10

Read my lips: here comes the new tax

October 01, 2009 – Comments (7)

And now it is the households earning less than $250,000 that will bear the brunt of obama's antireform, and, which is more, this tax will be REGRESSIVE since the penalty for failure to buy overpriced insurance, though the SAME in nominal terms, will grow as a PERCENTAGE of your income as you go down the income ladder. A good wake-up call for those less-than-bright orphans and widows who still see the Illinois demagogue as their best friend.   [more]

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