October 2008
October 31, 2008 –
Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling suggested a Bank of England lending rate cut was possible but didn't declare it a done deal.Link to article : http://economie.moldova.org/stiri/eng/161253/
I am not going to tell the Bank of England what to do, because independence means just that, in the difficult as well as the good times, Darling said in an interview on Sky News. [more]
October 31, 2008 –
ARA,BAK,RIO,BRP,CBD,ELP
October 31, 2008 –
so its the Bears turn to get a Crushing blow in November.
October 31, 2008 –
and lol there are still skeptics that don't think we hit bottom yet. What more do they want to happen?
Killing & Looting on American streets to realise we hit bottom?
October 31, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: VIP
, ROS
, MBT
caused crisis dropped its stock from mid $20's to single digits.
It might not make it to mid $20's short-term but $16-18 sure is in sight. VIP fell hard with potential stock sales of VIP shares by Alfa Group, but now that the margin call has been paid that potential of share sells has been lifted. Other telecoms in the space have recovered ROS from $23 to $43 in a week, while MBT from mid $20's to $38 in a week.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINLU73190020081030?rpc=44 [more]
October 31, 2008 –
Just put out his bullish call and way a big bounce is in store for the market.
October 31, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: VIP
, MTL
Russia's Alfa Group says pays back $2 bln loan Thu Oct 30, 2008 3:05pm EDT
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINLU64766220081030?rpc=44 [more]
October 31, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: MOS
, FSYS
, CE
Shorting today a Fool's Game "Experience of when to short & when not to short"
Many novice shorts will short the open today because they have become comfortable shorting over the last 2 months. Everything they shorted went down. But this is where experience in the market pays off Bigtime and novice shorts will get crushed as many select stocks that have been completely crushed rebound 20-50% within a week. [more]
October 30, 2008 –
This is where Experience in the market Pays off BIGTIME
I remembered an article I read in Oct. 2000 and put it to work in Oct. 2008, you will be shocked how accurate everything has been.
Points of the article written by: Jim Jubak
How to navigate the market in a recession during October-Dec.
#1 Don't buy stocks in October.
#2 Buy stocks in the last few days of October or early November.
#3 The reason for this is Mutual & Hedge funds use Oct. as a tax loss
selling month for their calendar year, but when you add high redemption ratios to that tax loss mix because of a bear market it can really over amplify the selling pressure. We saw all this October and thensome.
Here is the full article below:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
10 Sitting Ducks for Tax-Loss Selling Season
10/06/00 - 01:46 PM EDT
Jim Jubak
http://www.thestreet.com/funds/jubak/1113921.html
I don't know whether we'll finish 2000 with a classic year-end rally. Every painful drop that takes the Nasdaq Composite Index closer to May's low of 3165 makes a rally more likely, I believe, but with worries about the fourth quarter hanging over this stock market, it's by no means guaranteed that the bull will pay even a short visit in November/December.
But I do know what three hurdles stocks have to jump before that's even a possibility.
They've just about cleared the first -- earnings-warning season -- with bad bumps from Intel (INTC Quote - Cramer on INTC - Stock Picks), Apple Computer (AAPL Quote - Cramer on AAPL - Stock Picks) and Xerox (XRX Quote - Cramer on XRX - Stock Picks), to name just a few.
And the market is now lining up to begin its run at the second set of obstacles -- sell-on-earnings-reports season -- starting next week. Companies that report good third-quarter earnings during the next few weeks could see their stocks plunge if investors decide that prospects for the fourth quarter are potentially disappointing. Stocks will be busy jumping these first two challenges for most of October.
Before equities are done with that task, though, they'll be getting ready to face the third and final set of hurdles. As the fiscal year draws to a close for institutional investors such as mutual funds, professional money managers will be selling their losers to offset profits and capital gains taxes on any winners that they've sold this year. October tax-loss selling will put yet more downward pressure on stocks -- as if stocks needed more problems right now.
This last wave of selling pressure won't wash over every stock evenly, of course. Some shares are likely to escape completely. Others may sink just a little with the general ebb of the tide. Still others are likely to face a relentless river of selling; the current on these will flow strongly and relentlessly downward -- for a month anyway.
I don't think it's possible to come up with a magic formula that will tell us precisely which stocks belong in each of these three categories. Investors decide to sell stocks to generate tax losses after looking at a complex set of conditions that include when they bought the stock, how steeply it has fallen recently and projections of how well it will perform going forward. And investors make these decisions not just with an eye on their own portfolio and tax returns, but with constant adjustments based on what everyone else seems to be doing.
What a Near-Term Loser Looks Like
All that means is that investors trying to decide what stocks will go down during tax-loss selling season are faced with the same uncertainty they confront in a rising market when trying to pick stocks that will go up. In a climbing market there's no way to put together a list of stocks that are guaranteed to climb, but we can and do isolate factors that have, historically, increased the probability that a stock will go up. In the same way, during tax-loss-selling season, we can put together a list of traits that, in combination, are good indicators that a stock will face downward selling pressure during this period. Investors who want to limit their potential losses during this period should avoid stocks that closely fit this profile. Investors looking for bargains to buy for any potential year-end rally should wait to buy battered stocks that fit this profile until late October or early November, when most institutional tax-loss selling will be completed.
Here's my profile of a stock that will face selling pressure from tax-conscious investors.
* Institutional investors make up a majority of owners. If institutions don't own it, they can't sell it. Pretty simple. (Individual investors certainly sell for tax purposes, but it tends to be later in the year, after the institutions have finished in October.) Big-company stocks generally have majority institutional ownership. Institutional investors own 51% of Dell Computer (DELL Quote - Cramer on DELL - Stock Picks), for example, 65% of EMC (EMC Quote - Cramer on EMC - Stock Picks) and 62% of Chase Manhattan (CMB Quote - Cramer on CMB - Stock Picks). But even in this group the range can be extreme. Wal-Mart Stores (WMT Quote - Cramer on WMT - Stock Picks) is only 34% owned by institutions, and AT&T (T Quote - Cramer on T - Stock Picks), 37%. By and large, the range spreads out as market capitalization marketcapitalization decreases. In the $4 billion to $10 billion segment of the market, for example, institutional investors own 85% of Avon Products (AVP Quote - Cramer on AVP - Stock Picks) and 70% of The Limited (LTD Quote - Cramer on LTD - Stock Picks), but only 12% of Akamai Technologies (AKAM Quote - Cramer on AKAM - Stock Picks) and 17% of Knight Trading Group (NITE Quote - Cramer on NITE - Stock Picks).
* The stock is showing a major loss from its "popular" high for the year. Can't sell it to generate a loss if the stock hasn't tanked. That's pretty obvious. But what do I mean by "popular" high? That's a high with lots of volume that lasted for a good while. Lots of investors had a chance to buy at this price -- because of its duration -- and the high volume during the period shows that they did. For example, contrast Wind River Systems (WIND Quote - Cramer on WIND - Stock Picks) with Intel. Wind River traded above $50 for about a month in the spring, from Feb. 28 through March 28, and the chart shows only one brief volume spike during that period that pushed trading substantially above 2 million shares in a day. Intel, on the other hand, traded above $60 a share from March 15 through Sept. 21, except for three brief spikes down to $55. Even in the summer doldrums, volume was often above 40 million shares a day. Wind River closed at $44.13 on Oct. 3; from the chart, I'd say relatively few investors have a major tax loss in the stock. That same day, Intel closed at $40.31. Millions of investors -- and 54% of the stock is in institutional hands -- are likely looking at losses of $20 a share or more on Intel.
* The stock or its group is out of favor going forward. No investor willingly sells to generate a tax loss knowing that he or she will have to scramble to buy the stock back before it starts a major run. The ideal candidate for tax-loss selling is instead a stock that faces tough sledding in the year-end period, at least as far as the current consensus goes. An individual stock such as AT&T fits that definition to a T right now. The stock was above $45 a share for the first four months of the year before falling to a recent $30. But just as important, according to the consensus, there's no quick turnaround in sight for this stock. Management and strategy are fundamentally flawed. That makes AT&T a safe tax-loss sell. It isn't going to double in a month and embarrass the seller. Whole groups of technology stocks fit this description right now. According to the consensus, sales growth is slowing for PC makers, and the fourth quarter could bring further bad news. And slowing PC sales mean slowing orders for semiconductor equipment makers. That thinking may be wrong -- I think it is when it's applied to equipment makers -- but it is the current consensus, and it makes it likely that Intel, Dell and Applied Materials (AMAT Quote - Cramer on AMAT - Stock Picks) could all see tax-loss selling in October.
* The stock has broken through major technical support in the recent market rout. Let's see ... On one hand, you could hold such a stock and hope that it doesn't fall another 20% to the next level of support. Or you can sell, generating a tax loss and putting in some downside protection. That's a tough one. I'm sure that some institutional investors who bought IBM (IBM Quote - Cramer on IBM - Stock Picks) above $120 a share between Aug. 10 and Sept. 26 are weighing this one very carefully right now. The stock broke through its 200-day moving average at $114 on Sept. 29 and then moved down to close at $110 on Oct. 3. The next support on this stock below $110 is at $90.
* The stock isn't a must-own name. If you run a technology portfolio, you have to own Cisco Systems (CSCO Quote - Cramer on CSCO - Stock Picks). In the retail sector, you need Wal-Mart and Home Depot (HD Quote - Cramer on HD - Stock Picks). But it's easy to imagine a technology portfolio without Citrix Systems (CTXS Quote - Cramer on CTXS - Stock Picks) or RealNetworks (RNWK Quote - Cramer on RNWK - Stock Picks), and a retail portfolio without J.C.Penney (JCP Quote - Cramer on JCP - Stock Picks) or Saks (SKS Quote - Cramer on SKS - Stock Picks).
* All the sellers haven't been washed out of the stock. When a stock takes a really big hit -- I mean really big -- and then struggles in the mire for months, the investors who are left are true believers. If you held Excite@Home (ATHM Quote - Cramer on ATHM - Stock Picks), for example, from $86 to $20 and then still held on when it dropped to $12 recently, I'd say that it would take more than a tax loss to make you sell now.
Here's my list of 10 stocks that I think fit these six factors: Intel, Lucent Technologies (LU Quote - Cramer on LU - Stock Picks), Applied Materials, Apple Computer, Xerox, The Gap (GPS Quote - Cramer on GPS - Stock Picks), BroadVision (BVSN Quote - Cramer on BVSN - Stock Picks), AT&T, Albertson's (ABS Quote - Cramer on ABS - Stock Picks) and Amazon.com (AMZN Quote - Cramer on AMZN - Stock Picks). I'm sure that in the current market, you'll have no trouble adding names of your own.
These are all cheap stocks, but I think they could stay cheap and maybe even get cheaper as October rolls along. I think the market will be wrong on some of them as we get into November, but I think the selling pressure isn't about to go away in a day or a week. They are stocks to buy later -- and not sooner -- in October. [more]
October 30, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: POT
, MOS
4-Star Stocks Poised to Pop: PotashCorp By Brian D. Pacampara October 30, 2008 Comment (1)
6 Recommendations [more]
October 30, 2008 –
that will be another catalyst for more stock rallying. Futures pointing to a major rate cut by England.
FTSE closes 8.1% up in third best day of trading ever as US cuts interest rate
By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 2:01 AM on 30th October 2008
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1081387/FTSE-closes-8-1-best-day-trading-US-cuts-rate.html
The end of an exhausting day at the London Stock Exchange where shares prices rallied
The London stock exchange had its third best day of trading ever yesterday as shares rallied ahead of a decision today by the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
The FTSE closed 8.1 per cent higher at 4242, the third biggest one-day rise in history, with insurers, banks and miners leading the charge after weeks of heavy losses.
Yesterday's rally added around £76 billion to the value of the companies listed on the FTSE.
The soaring share prices in London came on the back of an attempt by the US Federal reserve to halt their economy's slide into recession.
The Federal Reserve dropped the main interest rate from 1.5 per cent to 1 per cent just three weeks after the cost of borrowing was cut by a half point in a coordinated move with five other central banks, including the Bank of England.
The pound also soared almost seven cents against the dollar, putting it on course for the biggest two-day rise in more than 23 years.
The pound was up 6.9 cents to $1.628 on speculation the rally on the stock market will bolster demand for the British currency.
Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics, said the recession would force the Bank of England to carry on cutting its base rate to unprecedented levels.
He said: 'Extraordinary circumstances require extraordinary actions.
'With the current recession likely to be deeper than that in the early nineties and the credit crunch impairing the effectiveness of monetary policy, we now expect UK interest rates to fall to an all time low of just one per cent.'
The cut in interest rates by the Federal reserve is likely to put pressure on the Bank of England to lower its base rate from 4.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent when its monetary policy committee meets next week.
Further cuts to below two per cent would take Britain into uncharted territory. The base rate was last at two per cent in November 1951, having been set at that level in October 1939 after the outbreak of the second World War [more]
October 30, 2008 –
I Would not be shocked if DJIA goes up 500 pts by end of day
after stocks have priced in the worst of all cases.
We got a GDP report which was higher than was expected. Stocks were priced in for a GDP lower than was expected not higher.
October 30, 2008 –
The very thing that turned me into a total Bear "Skyrocketing DLR LIBOR" has now turned me into a total Bull and thats "sharply falling DLR Libor"
MONEY MARKETS-Dollar interbank rates tumble after Fed cuts
Reuters
Reuters - Friday, October 31
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20081030/tbs-markets-money-7318940.html
* Dlr Libor rates lower, extend near 3-wk fall after Fed
cuts
* Euro and stg rates also lower as stock recovery boosts
confidence
* Fed swap lines ease Asian rates
By Kirsten Donovan
LONDON, Oct 30 - The cost banks charge to lend dollars to each other fell sharply on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a widely expected rate cut and created currency swap lines to ease dollar funding tightness around the world.
The U.S. central bank's moves came amid a wave of supportive announcements from global monetary authorities as financial markets grapple to unlock credit availability.
Taiwan and Hong Kong followed the Fed -- which slashed rates 50 basis points to 1 percent -- with rate cuts within hours, while China cut interest rates on Wednesday and speculation persisted that Japan would follow suit on Friday.
The cost of borrowing overnight dollars fell over 40 basis points at Thursday's fixing of London interbank offered rates to 0.73125 percent, while 3-month rates fell 22 basis points to 3.19 percent, marking a near three-week decline of 162 basis points.
The premium or spread paid for borrowing three-month dollars over anticipated central bank rates -- the Libor/OIS spread -- narrowed by 13 basis points, indicating some easing of tension and traders said a rebound in equity markets was also adding to confidence on money markets.
Most euro and sterling Libor rates also fell on Thursday [ID:nLU169724].
"It seems there's some traction again, spreads are coming in but it's hard to say how much of that is due to the central bank measures and how much to some level of confidence coming back in from higher stock markets," said BNP Paribas rate strategist Alessandro Tentori.
"The market was really expecting spreads to come in quicker and Libors to fix lower at a much faster pace so there's some work to do. The problem is not sorted out, spreads are still much wider than at any time last year, from previous equilibrium levels."
The European Central Bank's Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez echoed the sentiment saying the coordinated moves by central banks would not correct the crisis immediately and that the process will be slow [ID:nWEA4952].
But traders said they were seeing some money being lent beyond overnight and one month terms again, which was helping Libor fix lower.
"It's still nowhere near what you'd consider normal by any stretch but it does signal there's some loosening up of the markets, all be it with a long way to go."
The ECB is also seen chopping another half point off interest rates at its November meeting, a Reuters poll this week showed, a feeling reflected in the subdued demand for Wednesday's auction of three-month funds as banks held fire, betting the rate of interest would be more favourable by the end of next week.
FED OPENS NEW SWAP LINES
Interbank dollar costs also fell in Asia after the Fed announced four new currency swap lines with Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Singapore worth $30 billion each to help ease the dollar funding shortages that have crippled money markets around the globe.
"The swap lines have done the trick," said Suresh Ramanathan, strategist with CIMB Investment Bank in Kuala Lumpur but he expects most of the easing to take place in shorter maturities. The decision came a day after the Fed established a $15 billion swap line with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and brought its total swap lines with foreign central banks to 13.
The move coincided with the International Monetary Funds' decision to launch a short-term financing fund to help emerging market economies weather the global credit crisis.
Deposit and Libor rates are only indicative prices of where banks are lending to each other, which institutions use as a base to set their own lending rates.
For a wrap of the day's events see [ID:nLU504777] [more]
October 30, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: MOS
would you short a stock with PE 5 and forward PE under 3?
The stock trading at these levels is MOS
October 30, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: POT
, MOS
, CNH
Indie Research
Q3 Data Will Show if the Pros Still Favor Fertilizer Stocks
Thursday October 30, 10:01 am ET
By the tickerspy.com Staff [more]
October 30, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: CNH
, MOS
, POT
Extremely oversold CNH at $15.68
CNH an agriculture stock Oversold even though it beat estimates and also raised guidance higher. I can't believe we have come completely 360 degrees around. This summer we were paying $15-16 for COIN now we can get CNH for same price and its a stock with far superior balance sheet and future ahead.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [more]
October 30, 2008 –
Bloomberg radio said earlier this week that on average when a
Democrat is elected President the markets have gained 10% after the
election while when a Republican is elected the markets lose on
average 2 1/2% after the election.
So with Obama in the lead if history holds true to its form then we
are in for another 10% upside move on Obama getting elected.
Info above was obtained during a live conversation bloomberg radio
anchors were having earlier this week.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Obama now on track for Electoral College majority
By LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer Liz Sidoti, Associated Press
Writer – 6 mins ago
WASHINGTON – Barack Obama has pulled ahead in enough states to win
the 270 electoral votes he needs to gain the White House — and with
states to spare — according to an Associated Press analysis that
shows he is now moving beyond typical Democratic territory to
challenge John McCain on historically GOP turf.
Even if McCain sweeps the six states that are too close to call, he
still seemingly won't have enough votes to prevail, according to the
analysis, which is based on polls, the candidates' TV spending
patterns and interviews with Democratic and Republican strategists.
McCain does have a path to victory but it's a steep climb: He needs
a sudden shift in voter sentiment that gives him all six toss-up
states plus one or two others that now lean toward Obama.
Obama has 23 states and the District of Columbia, offering 286
votes, in his column or leaning his way, while Republican McCain has
21 states with 163 votes. A half dozen offering 89 votes — Florida,
Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio — remain up for
grabs. President Bush won all six in 2004, and they are where the
race is primarily being contested in the homestretch.
Though sounding confident, Obama is still campaigning hard. "Don't
believe for a second this election is over," he tells backers. "We
have to work like our future depends on it in this last week,
because it does."
The underdog McCain is pressing supporters to fight on: "Nothing is
inevitable here. We never give up. And we never quit."
Less than a week before Election Day, the AP analysis isn't meant to
be predictive but rather provides a late snapshot of a race that's
been volatile all year.
It's still possible McCain can pull off an upset. Some public and
private polling shows the race tightening nationally. And, roughly
one fourth of voters in a recent AP-GfK poll were undecided or said
they still could change their minds. It's also still unclear how
racial feelings will affect the results in voting that could give
the country its first black president.
Last month, in a similar analysis, Obama had an edge over McCain but
hadn't laid claim to enough states to cross the 270-vote threshold.
Since then, the economic crisis has reshaped the race, and the
public's call for change has grown louder. Obama has strengthened
his grip in the contest by using his significant financial advantage
to lock up most states that Democrat John Kerry won four years ago,
even as he makes inroads into traditionally GOP turf that McCain
cannot afford to lose.
Obama now has several possible routes to victory, while McCain is
scrambling to defend states where he shouldn't even have to campaign
in the final days.
In new AP-GfK battleground polling, Obama has a solid lead in
typically Republican Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. He and
McCain are even in two other usually GOP states: Florida and North
Carolina. Obama also is comfortably ahead in New Hampshire and
Pennsylvania. The series of polls showed Obama is winning among
early voters, is favored on most issues, benefits from the country's
sour mood and is widely viewed as the likely victor by voters in
these states.
McCain's senior advisers acknowledge his steep hurdles and no-room-
for-error strategy. However, they insist that internal polling shows
the race getting closer. They hope the gains trickle down to
competitive Bush-won states in the coming days and help the Arizona
senator eke out a victory in Kerry-won Pennsylvania. McCain is
keeping up his attacks against Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal; his
strategists contend that's moving poll numbers.
"This campaign is functionally tied across the battleground states
with our numbers improving sharply," said Bill McInturff, McCain's
lead pollster in a strategy memo. "All signs say we are headed to an
election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday."
Democrats privately acknowledge the race is narrowing, though they
say they aren't concerned. Obama's top aides hope not just for a win
but a sweeping victory that would reshapes the political landscape.
"Strategically we tried to have as wide of a map as possible," to
have many routes to reaching the magic number of 270 on Election
Day, David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, told reporters this
week. "We think we've been able to create that dynamic and have a
lot of competitive states in play."
Indeed, Obama has used his financial heft and organizational
prowess, a remnant of the long Democratic primary that was fought
out in every corner of the nation, to compete in states the party
has ignored in previous elections because of their histories of
voting Republican. McCain has lagged in both money and manpower.
As a result, the GOP's hold on states usually considered safe has
shrunk, and the election's final week is being played out largely in
states that Bush won and that are toss-ups in a political climate
that greatly favors Democrats.
They include the traditional GOP bastions of Indiana and North
Carolina, as well as perennial battlegrounds of Missouri and Nevada.
Also on the list are the crown jewels of Florida and Ohio, which
were crucial in deciding the last two presidential elections. McCain
could sweep all six and still lose the White House.
Obama has every state that Kerry won four years ago seemingly in the
bag or leaning his way, including Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and
New Hampshire — four states with 41 votes that McCain and his allies
aggressively fought for before pulling back this month when they
became out of reach. McCain still hopes to win one of Maine's
electoral votes, which are allotted by congressional district.
Among Kerry's states from 2004, only Pennsylvania, which hasn't
voted for a Republican since 1988, remains realistically in McCain's
sights. Public polls show Obama leading by double-digits, though
McCain aides say it's much closer. McCain hopes that working-class
white voters who haven't fully warmed to Obama will vote Republican.
Some aides say a Pennsylvania victory, with 21 votes, could be what
allows McCain to win the White House, provided he can thwart Obama
in Bush-held states.
Over the past month, Obama has strengthened his standing in four of
those offering a combined 34 votes.
He has comfortable leads in Iowa and New Mexico polls. Long
considered toss-ups, Colorado and Virginia have started tilting more
toward Obama. McCain is still advertising heavily in the four and
has visited all in recent days. His advisers say their polling shows
the race tighter than it seems.
West Virginia and Montana both emerged as GOP trouble spots after
Obama started advertising in them; the Republican National Committee
was forced to go on the air this week to defend them.
Earlier in the year, Obama had put millions of dollars into Georgia
and North Dakota only to pull out when McCain ended up maintaining
an edge. But, as the race closes, there are indications Obama could
win them, too. Obama also could pick up a single vote in Nebraska,
which awards votes based on congressional districts.
There are even signs that the race in McCain's home state of
Arizona — which would be a battleground if he didn't live there — is
narrowing. Public polls show McCain with a single-digit lead, even
though Obama hasn't targeted the state. [more]
October 29, 2008 –
Bloomberg radio said earlier this week that on average when a
Democrat is elected President the markets have gained 10% after the
election while when a Republican is elected the markets lose on
average 2 1/2% after the election.
So with Obama in the lead if history holds true to its form then we
are in for another 10% upside move on Obama getting elected.
Info above was obtained during a live conversation bloomberg radio
anchors were having earlier this week.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Obama now on track for Electoral College majority
By LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer Liz Sidoti, Associated Press
Writer – 6 mins ago
WASHINGTON – Barack Obama has pulled ahead in enough states to win
the 270 electoral votes he needs to gain the White House — and with
states to spare — according to an Associated Press analysis that
shows he is now moving beyond typical Democratic territory to
challenge John McCain on historically GOP turf.
Even if McCain sweeps the six states that are too close to call, he
still seemingly won't have enough votes to prevail, according to the
analysis, which is based on polls, the candidates' TV spending
patterns and interviews with Democratic and Republican strategists.
McCain does have a path to victory but it's a steep climb: He needs
a sudden shift in voter sentiment that gives him all six toss-up
states plus one or two others that now lean toward Obama.
Obama has 23 states and the District of Columbia, offering 286
votes, in his column or leaning his way, while Republican McCain has
21 states with 163 votes. A half dozen offering 89 votes — Florida,
Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio — remain up for
grabs. President Bush won all six in 2004, and they are where the
race is primarily being contested in the homestretch.
Though sounding confident, Obama is still campaigning hard. "Don't
believe for a second this election is over," he tells backers. "We
have to work like our future depends on it in this last week,
because it does."
The underdog McCain is pressing supporters to fight on: "Nothing is
inevitable here. We never give up. And we never quit."
Less than a week before Election Day, the AP analysis isn't meant to
be predictive but rather provides a late snapshot of a race that's
been volatile all year.
It's still possible McCain can pull off an upset. Some public and
private polling shows the race tightening nationally. And, roughly
one fourth of voters in a recent AP-GfK poll were undecided or said
they still could change their minds. It's also still unclear how
racial feelings will affect the results in voting that could give
the country its first black president.
Last month, in a similar analysis, Obama had an edge over McCain but
hadn't laid claim to enough states to cross the 270-vote threshold.
Since then, the economic crisis has reshaped the race, and the
public's call for change has grown louder. Obama has strengthened
his grip in the contest by using his significant financial advantage
to lock up most states that Democrat John Kerry won four years ago,
even as he makes inroads into traditionally GOP turf that McCain
cannot afford to lose.
Obama now has several possible routes to victory, while McCain is
scrambling to defend states where he shouldn't even have to campaign
in the final days.
In new AP-GfK battleground polling, Obama has a solid lead in
typically Republican Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. He and
McCain are even in two other usually GOP states: Florida and North
Carolina. Obama also is comfortably ahead in New Hampshire and
Pennsylvania. The series of polls showed Obama is winning among
early voters, is favored on most issues, benefits from the country's
sour mood and is widely viewed as the likely victor by voters in
these states.
McCain's senior advisers acknowledge his steep hurdles and no-room-
for-error strategy. However, they insist that internal polling shows
the race getting closer. They hope the gains trickle down to
competitive Bush-won states in the coming days and help the Arizona
senator eke out a victory in Kerry-won Pennsylvania. McCain is
keeping up his attacks against Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal; his
strategists contend that's moving poll numbers.
"This campaign is functionally tied across the battleground states
with our numbers improving sharply," said Bill McInturff, McCain's
lead pollster in a strategy memo. "All signs say we are headed to an
election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday."
Democrats privately acknowledge the race is narrowing, though they
say they aren't concerned. Obama's top aides hope not just for a win
but a sweeping victory that would reshapes the political landscape.
"Strategically we tried to have as wide of a map as possible," to
have many routes to reaching the magic number of 270 on Election
Day, David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, told reporters this
week. "We think we've been able to create that dynamic and have a
lot of competitive states in play."
Indeed, Obama has used his financial heft and organizational
prowess, a remnant of the long Democratic primary that was fought
out in every corner of the nation, to compete in states the party
has ignored in previous elections because of their histories of
voting Republican. McCain has lagged in both money and manpower.
As a result, the GOP's hold on states usually considered safe has
shrunk, and the election's final week is being played out largely in
states that Bush won and that are toss-ups in a political climate
that greatly favors Democrats.
They include the traditional GOP bastions of Indiana and North
Carolina, as well as perennial battlegrounds of Missouri and Nevada.
Also on the list are the crown jewels of Florida and Ohio, which
were crucial in deciding the last two presidential elections. McCain
could sweep all six and still lose the White House.
Obama has every state that Kerry won four years ago seemingly in the
bag or leaning his way, including Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and
New Hampshire — four states with 41 votes that McCain and his allies
aggressively fought for before pulling back this month when they
became out of reach. McCain still hopes to win one of Maine's
electoral votes, which are allotted by congressional district.
Among Kerry's states from 2004, only Pennsylvania, which hasn't
voted for a Republican since 1988, remains realistically in McCain's
sights. Public polls show Obama leading by double-digits, though
McCain aides say it's much closer. McCain hopes that working-class
white voters who haven't fully warmed to Obama will vote Republican.
Some aides say a Pennsylvania victory, with 21 votes, could be what
allows McCain to win the White House, provided he can thwart Obama
in Bush-held states.
Over the past month, Obama has strengthened his standing in four of
those offering a combined 34 votes.
He has comfortable leads in Iowa and New Mexico polls. Long
considered toss-ups, Colorado and Virginia have started tilting more
toward Obama. McCain is still advertising heavily in the four and
has visited all in recent days. His advisers say their polling shows
the race tighter than it seems.
West Virginia and Montana both emerged as GOP trouble spots after
Obama started advertising in them; the Republican National Committee
was forced to go on the air this week to defend them.
Earlier in the year, Obama had put millions of dollars into Georgia
and North Dakota only to pull out when McCain ended up maintaining
an edge. But, as the race closes, there are indications Obama could
win them, too. Obama also could pick up a single vote in Nebraska,
which awards votes based on congressional districts.
There are even signs that the race in McCain's home state of
Arizona — which would be a battleground if he didn't live there — is
narrowing. Public polls show McCain with a single-digit lead, even
though Obama hasn't targeted the state.
[more]
October 29, 2008 –
it seems every stock I have mentioned has exploded up in last 2 days.
DIN over 75% gains, LVS over 75% gains, POT,MGM, MTN
October 29, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: CT
CT posts .61 eps beats by .02 and offering 61% divy. Reported net income of $13.7 million or $0.61 per share for the third quarter of 2008.
October 29, 2008 –
MTN,WYNN,MGM,LVS,BYD,
October 29, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: POT
, IPI
, PRGO
Perrigo Co. (PRGO): Zacks Rank Buy
Monday October 27, 1:00 am ET
By Alex Kolb
Highlighted stocks include Perrigo Co. (NasdaqGS: PRGO - News), Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT - News), Harris Corp. (NYSE: HRS - News), CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX - News) and Sherwin-Williams Co. (NYSE: SHW - News).
Perrigo Co. (NasdaqGS: PRGO - News) is seeing upward estimate revisions ahead of its fiscal first-quarter report. Analysts are forecasting earnings of $1.96 per share for the year ending June 2009. Last month, analysts were projecting $1.92. Wall Street's expectation for the company's first-quarter earnings are at 42 cents per share, versus last month's 40 cents.
The company offers a return on equity (ROE) of 18%, more than doubling the industry average of 8%. Perrigo's earnings per share are expected to grow by 20% over the next 3 - 5 years, beating the industry's average of 15%. The company is yielding 0.7% in an industry that offers no income.
PRGO announced record fiscal fourth-quarter results in mid-August. The company's profit increased by 46% thanks to the hike seen in demand for its consumer health care products.
PRGO is scheduled to release fiscal first-quarter results on Nov 06.
Read our Oct 01, 2008 analysis.
Last Week's Growth and Income Zacks Rank Buy Stocks
Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT - News) recently posted strong results for the third quarter. Earnings per share of 79 cents surpassed the year-prior 67 cents and exceeded the consensus estimate by 3%. Worldwide sales jumped 17.6% on a year-over-year basis. The company hiked its full-year guidance, and analysts followed suit. Read the full analysis on ABT.
Harris Corp. (NYSE: HRS - News) boasts an excellent track record of beating analyst estimates. While the company missed the consensus earnings expectation by a penny last quarter, it turned in only 1 other miss over the past 4 years. HRS is scheduled to report fiscal first-quarter results on October 29. Read the full analysis on HRS.
CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX - News) recently posted record third-quarter results, noting that its resilient business portfolio and disciplined operations continue to generate substantial earnings growth. The company offers a dividend yield of 2%, which is in line with its industry average. Read the full analysis on CSX.
Sherwin-Williams Co. (NYSE: SHW - News) recently posted third-quarter earnings of $1.50 per share, exceeding the consensus estimate by 18%. Sales climbed 3.3% to a record $2.269 billion. The company hiked its full-year earnings guidance, and analysts followed suit, boosting 2008 forecasts by 5% in just the past week. Read the full analysis on SHW. [more]
October 28, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: SAH
, TEN
, DIN
into better fundamental stocks
How is this done in a bear market? [more]
October 28, 2008 –
This market is not like the ones of the past today. Its showing extreme strength and lots of short covering fueled by heavy buying from mutual funds. I guess the Mutual funds are re-positioning into value stocks that have been completely crushed.
October 28, 2008 –
the market to being long in a matter of minutes. If this market rally is real then we can benefit
very quickly by turning into bulls.
October 28, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: MS
, GS
ahead of rate cut Wed. they are both down big.
October 28, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: DIN
of DJIA at 8000 then I would look at small float stocks at the beginning of the rally which would soar initially the fastest. Then look into larg caps. [more]
October 28, 2008 –
Remember Our short lived Naked short ban Rally.
Lasted just one day the last time the USA used it.
Today in Asia "Japan" put in place a naked short ban today and that is the reason it has rallied. Earlier in the day it was down 2% prior to the ban and all the Asian markets were down except China's Hang Seng. [more]
October 27, 2008 –
Read all about it on the Blog of World Reknown Professor at New York University - Nouriel Roubini
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini
October 27, 2008 –
This index is down from nearly 4000 to just 1476 in a year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESTI
The STRAITS TIMES INDEX is down -7% at 9:52pm EST
The entire index is all red, not even one stock is up.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=%5ESTI [more]
October 27, 2008 –
Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling is expected to say this week that the country will enter a worse-than-expected recession, according to media reports Sunday.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer is the title held by the British Cabinet minister who is responsible for all economic and financial matters.
October 27, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: PRU
, MET
, CNA
Read report just posted:
http://tinyurl.com/6raxdl
Treasury cautious on investments in insurers
Focus is on federally regulated financial institutions that lend: official
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last update: 1:45 p.m. EDT Oct. 27, 2008
Comments: 1
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- A Treasury Department official expressed caution Monday about government investments in insurers, stressing that the main focus is on stabilizing the banking system and encouraging more lending.
Insurers are among the many industries that have asked for help from the federal government, and an investment in the insurance sector is "something that we have to consider," David Nason, assistant secretary for financial institutions at the Treasury, told the cable news channel CNBC on Monday.
'There is considerable uncertainty about what [an insurance-sector assistance] program might look like and which companies might be eligible.'
— Jeffrey Schuman, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
However, Nason stressed that in deciding whether to invest in an institution, Treasury focuses on how important the company is to the financial system and whether such support would increase the supply of credit to the economy.
Nason also said that Treasury relies on federal regulators to let the government know how strong financial institutions are and how much capital they may need. "With other industries, we don't have that benefit, so that's a significant challenge," Nason added, during the televised interview.
The U.S. insurance industry is regulated by states, not by the federal government. However, some insurers are federally regulated, while others have subsidiaries that submit to federal oversight.
"There is considerable uncertainty about what any such program might look like and which companies might be eligible," Jeffrey Schuman, a life-insurance analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, wrote in a Monday note to clients.
Under the current rules of the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, institutions must own federally regulated entities, such as thrifts, to be eligible, Schuman noted. "If this rule is maintained, we believe it could be fairly restrictive for the life industry," he wrote.
Chart of MET
Big life-insurance stocks declined Monday on such concerns. MetLife Inc. (MET:
metlife inc com
News, chart, profile, more
Last: 28.39-1.41-4.73%
2:04pm 10/27/2008
Delayed quote data
Add to portfolio
Analyst
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Financials
Sponsored by:
MET 28.39, -1.41, -4.7%) lost 6% to $28.10, Hartford Financial Services (HIG:
hartford finl svcs group inc com
News, chart, profile, more
Last: 21.30-3.00-12.35%
2:03pm 10/27/2008
Delayed quote data
Add to portfolio
Analyst
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Financials
Sponsored by:
HIG 21.30, -3.00, -12.3%) dropped 11% to $21.71 and Genworth Financial (GNW:
genworth finl inc com cl a
News, chart, profile, more
Last: 4.54-0.60-11.67%
2:03pm 10/27/2008
Delayed quote data
Add to portfolio
Analyst
Create alert
Insider
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Financials
Sponsored by:
GNW 4.54, -0.60, -11.7%) slumped 12% to $4.52.
Principal Financial, another life insurer, dropped 2.5% to $19.13, while Prudential Financial (PRU:
prudential finl inc com
News, chart, profile, more
Last: 34.84+0.38+1.10%
2:03pm 10/27/2008
Delayed quote data
Add to portfolio
Analyst
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Financials
Sponsored by:
PRU 34.84, +0.38, +1.1%) gained 9 cents to $34.51.
Prudential owns Prudential Bank & Trust, a federal savings bank, so the insurer may be considered a savings and loan. It's also subject to annual examination and regulation by the Office of Thrift Supervision and the Treasury, Randy Binner, an analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, said in a note to investors.
"Prudential could be the largest beneficiary of government action in our coverage group," he added.
'If balance sheets are in bad shape on a relative basis, Treasury has demonstrated they have no interest in throwing a lifeline.'
— John Nadel, Sterne Agee
MetLife could also qualify for government investment because it became a bank holding company in 2001 when it was acquired by a federally chartered commercial bank and came under the regulatory umbrella of the Federal Reserve, Binner explained.
Still, government money may not help all insurers.
"If balance sheets are in bad shape on a relative basis, Treasury has demonstrated they have no interest in throwing a lifeline, if all it does is prolong the ultimate drowning," John Nadel, an analyst at Sterne Agee, wrote in a note to investors. "It is safe to assume the same will hold true for life insurers, if they are afforded participation."
Nadel expects MetLife and Prudential to be "clear winners" from any government intervention in the sector, he said.
Hartford and Lincoln National (LNC:
LNC 19.97, -1.02, -4.9%) may also be included, but it's less clear whether this would help them.
"Principal Financial is a tougher call as well," Nadel said. "Thereafter, we suspect none of our life names would be included." End of Story
Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco. [more]
October 27, 2008 –
Banks and Insurance companies fear Credit Default Swaps rearing its ugly head once more.
Tuesday, 21 October 2008
Meltdown 101: Credit default swaps
Ellen Simon - The Associated Press
http://www.heraldextra.com/content/view/285139/36/
11The swaps -- which were intended either as insurance on debt or side bets, depending on the buyer -- are completely unregulated, prone to sloppy documentation and traded without a central clearinghouse.
Sound bad? Here's worse: No one knows how big the market is. Estimates range as high as $62 trillion.
Here are some questions and answers about the swaps and the role they've played in the financial crisis.
Q: What are credit default swaps?
A: A credit default swap is a contract, usually between banks, that acts as insurance on debt. Under the contract, the seller, for a fee, agrees to make a payment to the buyer if something bad happens to the debt the buyer has insured with the swaps.
For instance, a bank that holds another bank's bonds could insure those bonds against loss by buying swaps. If a bond held by an investor lost so much value that it was worth only 8 cents on the dollar, the holder of that investor's credit default swap would owe him 92 cents for each dollar covered by the swaps.
A less charitable characterization is that they're side bets on how debt securities will perform, since you don't have to own a security to buy a credit default swap based on its performance. For instance, you can make a bet on the default rate on a subprime mortgages without buying a penny in mortgages. If those mortgages defaulted and were worth 8 cents on the dollar, you'd make 92 cents on each dollar of the mortgages -- the same money you'd collect if you were an actual holder of the debt who'd bought the swap as insurance.
It's not clear how much of the total market falls into each category, but it is widely estimated that far more swaps fall into the "bet" category than the "insurance" category.
Q: What are the risks posed by credit default swaps?
A: The first risk is their sheer size. Writing in Sunday's New York Times, Christopher Cox, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, estimated there were $55 trillion in credit default swaps outstanding, which is larger than the combined gross domestic product of every country on Earth.
By comparison, as of the second half of this year, there was only $6 trillion in outstanding corporate debt and $7.5 trillion in mortgage-backed debt, according to data from New York state's insurance regulator.
Since the market for the swaps is so much larger than the initial loans they were meant to insure, credit default swaps have magnified risk exponentially, compounded every injury the financial markets have suffered.
A compounding risk is the murkiness of the market, thanks to the lack of a central clearinghouse or a regulator.
Think about what stock trading would look like if there were no stock exchanges, no company ever filed an annual report, most trading were done over the phone and each trader entered his trades in pencil in a notebook on his desk, which no one outside his firm ever saw.
"You would think that Wall Street would have computerized this when the market started taking off a few years ago," The Wall Street Journal wrote in a 2006 article, which detailed what Wall Street firms were doing to police their own credit-default trading.
"But deals were, and often still are, done by telephone and fax. Detailed confirmations, important in avoiding nettlesome disputes later, weren't completed. One firm confessed in June that it had 18,000 undocumented trades, several thousand of which had been languishing in the back office for more than 90 days."
Q: What role did they play in the financial crisis?
A: They've played more than one role.
The swaps have magnified each crisis, because most of the largest players in finance have bought swaps to protect debt they hold, and have also sold swaps, meaning they could owe money if other banks default.
Also, credit default swaps are secured by the assets of the seller -- the business equivalent of using your home to back a fleet of car loans. So if Bank A sold a hefty amount of swaps on Bank B's debt and Bank B files for bankruptcy, Bank A is suddenly facing a monstrous series of payments -- enough to push it into bankruptcy, too.
"When we were dealing with finding a solution for AIG, we knew the company had written almost half a trillion dollars in swaps, but we had no idea how much swaps had been written on AIG itself or by whom," said Eric Dinallo, superintendent of the New York State Insurance Department, in Senate testimony last week. "That meant we did not know what the broader effect of an AIG bankruptcy would be."
That meant that if AIG -- more formally called American International Group Inc. -- filed for bankruptcy, it would set off tidal waves in financial markets whose size would be completely unpredictable. That's one of the reasons why the federal government lent AIG $85 billion.
After Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy in September, sellers demanded more collateral on existing swaps. That's sucked away cash that could have been offered up for loans or invested elsewhere -- one of the many factors that helped put credit markets into a coma.
Q: What's the history of credit default swaps?
A: Credit default swaps came into being in the late 1990s, when they were seen as a way to manage risk by transferring it to more than one institution. In 1996, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency estimated the size of the market was "tens of billions of dollars."
It's grown over the last decade, especially the last two years, as mortgage defaults rose and investors soured on buying pools of mortgages called mortgage-backed securities. Because banks could no longer sell the mortgages, they held them, loading up on credit default swaps to protect themselves against loss. They bought those swaps from other banks, which held mortgages of their own.
This was "a classic case of wrong-way risk because those firms already had significant exposures" to the mortgages, said Delora Jee, a top regulator at the Office for the Comptroller of the Currency, in a speech last week.
Q: Is anyone saying we could just erase all these contracts?
A: Financial commentator Ben Stein has said that's just what the federal government and the New York State government should do. (Most U.S. credit-default swaps are sold in New York.)
"After all, there was no insurable interest in most cases, which tends to void insurance contracts, which is what a CDS (credit-default swap) is," he wrote in a column on Yahoo's financial web site.
Because of the murkiness of the market for credit default swaps, it's hard to know who would take a financial hit if the swaps were erased.
[more]
October 27, 2008 –
which has been halted for 2 days because of big declines will re-open on Tuesday. I won't bet that longs will be holding after such a halt. They will be heading for the exits.
Use today's rally to exit positions or to go short equities.
October 27, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: CNA
, PRU
, PUK
But these losses on investments will only increase greater based on the stock market performance in October 2008 which has been the worst month since the Great Depression. If you think the losses were big for the qtr ending in Sept. 30th 2008 then you will be shocked when you see the losses caused by the worst month since the Great Depression unfold next qtr,
October 27, 2008 –
today. Short selling has been drying up as told by the volume decreases the last few days of trading. That is a telling sign that they want to see a short-term rebound in stocks in which they can re-short at higher prices. So I am expecting a short-term 1 or 2 day massive deadcat bounce this week followed by a return of short sellers.
October 25, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: SIRI
Amazing how many people pick SIRI to outperform? Just because you like listening to SIRI is not reason enough to pick it as an outperform. All the stock has done since it IPO'd is go down , down, down. Now its trading in the pennies. [more]
October 24, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: CMG
because I have my own share of knockdowns from 5000 pts to -900 pts and now barely green. [more]
October 24, 2008 –
While some insiders are selling $20+M like at DDR, GGP, MAC,
There is CPN which has insider buying over $20M
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/investing/10443814.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
October 23, 2008 –
Even if we weren't headed for a recession, job losses are forcing us into a recession.
Auto job losses continue as Chrysler, GM make cuts
Thursday October 23, 7:09 pm ET
By Tom Krisher, AP Auto Writer
Auto industry job losses continue as Chrysler cuts workers, GM preps for salaried job cuts [more]
October 23, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: MSFT
, NTGR
, CB
Heavyweight MSFT lowers Guidance as do: AFFX, FLEX, CB, SCSC, SIMG, NTGR,
Very difficult to get any companies to post upside guidance in this recession type environment.
October 23, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: DDR
, MAC
Massive Margin Calls - Sharp stock declines forcing Insiders to sell
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122401907553533897.html?mod=crnews
October 23, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: MAC
, OFC
, GGP
Thanks to calling in most part underperform ratings on high debt stocks.
Property stocks with high debt in trouble according to market.
October 23, 2008 –
Property stocks with high debt in trouble according to market
many have been punished GGP , DDR, [more]
October 23, 2008 –
Looks like we should see a bounce up off 8400 DJIA
October 23, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: DUG
, DIG
, USO
You can't fight against them cutting oil production.
Maybe next week after OIL spikes on oil cut might be a good time to get back in on DUG.
October 23, 2008 –
Thursday October 23, 5:44 am ET
By Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer
Foreclosure filings surge 71 percent in third quarter as mortgage crisis worsens
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of homeowners ensnared in the foreclosure crisis grew by more than 70 percent in the third quarter of this year compared with the same period in 2007, according to data released Thursday.
Nationwide, nearly 766,000 homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice from July through September, up 71 percent from a year earlier, said foreclosure listing service RealtyTrac Inc.
By the end of the year, RealtyTrac expects more than a million bank-owned properties to have piled up on the market, representing around a third of all properties for sale in the U.S.
That's bad news for anyone who lives nearby and wants to sell their home. While foreclosure sales are booming in many areas, those properties are commanding deep discounts and pulling down neighboring property values. "It has a pretty significant impact in terms of pricing," said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's vice president for marketing.
RealtyTrac monitors default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions. More than 250,000 properties were repossessed by lenders nationwide in the third quarter, 81,000 of which were taken back last month.
Six states -- California, Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Michigan and Nevada -- accounted for more than 60 percent of all foreclosure activity in the quarter, with California alone making up more than a quarter of all U.S. foreclosure filings.
Detroit and Atlanta were the only cities outside California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona to make RealtyTrac's list of the 20 hardest-hit metropolitan areas.
The combination of sinking home values, tighter mortgage lending criteria and an economy that many economists think has already slipped into recession has left hundreds of thousands of homeowners with few options. Many can't find buyers or owe more than their home is worth and can't refinance into an affordable loan, with the global credit crisis making loans far less available.
For those who can qualify for a loan, or have cash to invest, there are bargains to be had, especially in ravaged markets like Nevada and California. Last month, foreclosure resales accounted for more than half of existing home sales in California last month, as home sales jumped 65 percent from a year ago, while the statewide median home price fell 34 percent to $283,000, according to MDA DataQuick.
RealtyTrac, however, reported foreclosure filings in September were actually down 12 percent from August. But much of that decline was the result of new state laws that delay the foreclosure process. In California, for example, lenders are now required to contact borrowers at least 30 days before filing a default notice. A similar law in North Carolina gives borrowers an extra 45 days.
Still, that's not likely to be enough to save homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Nearly 12 million of the 52 million Americans with a mortgage -- that's 23 percent of them -- are in that position, according to Moody's Economy.com.
It remains to be seen how much the government's intervention will stem the housing crisis. Earlier this month, the Federal Housing Administration launched a program that aims to prevent foreclosures by allowing homeowners to swap their mortgages for more affordable loans, but only if their lender agrees to take a loss on the initial loan. The bill is projected to help about 400,000 households.
Meanwhile, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which took over Pasadena, Calif.-based IndyMac Bank over the summer, has been aggressively modifying troubled home loans since August in an effort to stave off foreclosures. Congressional Democrats are calling for that approach to be expanded as the Treasury Department buys billions in troubled mortgage debt as part of a $700 billion financial industry bailout.
RealtyTrac Inc.: http://www.realtytrac.com [more]
October 22, 2008 –
Downside guidance afterhours: AMZN, MRCY, PLT, CNB, ANAD, TQNT, ISIL, GSIC, AEIS,
October 22, 2008 –
XOM insiders selling means OIL going much lower or collapse coming..
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=XOM
Here is an article from the past about insider sells = predictor of coming crash:
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/121504_insider_selling.shtml
Rampant Insider Selling Raises Red Flags - AP Reports Major Corporate Execs, Including Some From the Homebuilding Industry Are Dumping Stocks - Serious Predictor of a Coming Crash - Special Commentary by Michael C. Ruppert
[In 2000 and 2002, as the US financial markets tanked, investors lost trillions of dollars in equity as stock prices plunged and investment portfolios - many connected to pension funds - lost trillions of dollars in value. What was documented in both cases was that senior executives at many of the twenty or more companies involved (WorldCom, Enron, Adelphia, Merck, Global Crossing, to name a few) had engaged in a tactic called "pump and dump" just before the stock prices collapsed. Stock prices are pumped up by the executives and key insiders who then sell at the peak before everyone else gets reamed.
In a pump and dump operation, those who can influence stock prices issue glowing reports which cause investors to put their hard-earned dollars into a stock right before it collapses. This is a wealth transfer from poor or middle class folks to the absurdly wealthy. Immediately prior to the stock's collapse, the guys on top cash out and then the price plummets. The bad guys have the cash and the little investors and pension funds have nearly worthless or severely devalued paper.
This AP story is especially alarming for a number of reasons.
In light of FTW's recent (third-ever) economic alert, a number of very credible warnings from financial experts and the continuing intentional devaluation of the dollar, this is especially ominous. It is made more so by the fact that one of the nation's leading homebuilders is dumping stock hand over fist. This does not bode well for the housing bubble.
A critical distinction needs to be made however. Insider trading and insider selling are two different things.
Insider trading is a criminal activity in which a person with advance knowledge, acquired through inside involvement with economic or business events, violates his or her fiduciary and/or legal obligations for the sake of personal profit. This is what happened before 9/11 on markets from Hong Kong, to Tokyo, to Chicago, to New York, London and Berlin. This is what Martha Stewart was sent to jail for. As described in Crossing The Rubicon, right after 9/11 the SEC issued (then quickly suppressed) a list of 38 companies where it suspected that persons with inside knowledge of the attacks knew that the stock of these companies would be adversely affected by the attacks. They thereby made undisclosed billions in profit after betting that the share prices would fall.
Insider selling is a relatively tightly-policed area of stock trading where those employed at senior levels of publicly traded companies start divesting themselves of stock they own in their own companies. Insider trading is always a criminal activity. Insider selling may or may not be, which is why the SEC watches and reports on it fairly closely. Disclosure of insider selling is required by law and executives who sell stock in their own companies are required to report it for the benefit of shareholders and other investors. It is these required reports which prompted this AP wire story.
Given the fact that this pattern was evident just before each of the last two major financial slumps, this is a very ominous warning indeed. The Wall Street executives dumping their stocks are still trying to get small investors and pension funds to buy in when they know that a crash is coming. FTW strongly recommends to its subscribers that they take a look at any 401(k) plans or pension funds to which they belong and consider making immediate shifts out of stocks and into precious metals. For those lucky enough to have such assets, a consensus is emerging that now is a good time to have at least half of one's portfolio in precious metals.
We cannot make these warnings any clearer. - MCR]
[more]
October 22, 2008 –
Job losses could fuel foreclosure problem
MBA projects negative economic growth until mid-2009, another hit to housing
By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch
Last update: 10:31 p.m. EDT Oct. 21, 2008
Comments: 57
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- If 2008 was a record year for mortgages entering foreclosure, 2009 could look even worse: While home-price declines have been driving foreclosure starts recently, mounting job losses could add another layer of stress on American homeowners, the chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Tuesday.
A recession appears to be underway, according to the MBA's annual economic forecast, which projects negative economic growth through the middle of next year. The MBA presented its forecast to reporters Tuesday at its annual convention, being held in San Francisco.
Unemployment also will likely accelerate, perhaps reaching 7.7% by the end of next year, making it tougher for some people to stay in their homes, said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist of the MBA. He doesn't expect a rapid recovery in the jobs market, either: Unemployment won't decline until late 2010, according to MBA projections.
And while new-home production has decreased, the housing market will still continue to struggle with high inventories of for-sale properties. "Even though we see the new-home inventories falling, we see existing-home numbers increase," Brinkmann said.
No surprise, then, that he also doesn't expect home building to ramp up again soon: New-home sales will be down by 36% this year, compared with last year. Next year, new-home sales will be down by 12% -- though perhaps reaching a bottom in 2009. Sales are expected to rise 25% in 2010.
Meanwhile, existing-home sales will be down by 13% this year compared with 2007, but should increase 3% in 2009. According to MBA projections, existing-home sales could be up 6% in 2010.
Median home prices for new and existing homes are expected to be down about 6% to 7% in 2008, and prices should decline 3% to 4% in 2009. They're expected to rise slightly in 2010.
One number that might not change much over the next year -- rates on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. The MBA projects the mortgage to average 5.8% in the fourth quarter of 2008, 5.7% in the first through third quarters of next year, and 5.6% in the fourth quarter of 2009.
But as favorable as mortgage rates may be, for many would-be homeowners that might not be enough. That's because people's chief reason for not making a home purchase may no longer be related to fear of home-price declines or stricter lending standards. A bigger reason could have to do with their job security.
"They buy based on whether they have a paycheck," Brinkmann said. Increased paychecks typically cause increased household formation, he said, adding that in times like these, would-be buyers typically live with family or roommates until they can make a purchase.
Total residential mortgage production in 2009 is expected to be $1.67 trillion, down from $1.86 trillion in 2008 and $2.3 trillion in 2007, according to the MBA.
The foreclosure problem
Paychecks also determine if homeowners can pay their mortgage.
"We have been consistently setting records for new foreclosures and loans in foreclosure," Brinkmann said. The slowing economy could cause that trend to continue.
California and Florida have been the two states heavily influencing the national foreclosure start numbers, and that has been due largely to overbuilding and home-price declines in some of their markets.
But it's not yet clear how the recession will affect the economies of individual states, Brinkmann said. For example, job losses could be greater in the Midwest, where there's a shrinking number of manufacturing jobs, but it's uncertain how California's job market could behave, he said.
The foreclosure issue has been a focus of this year's MBA convention.
"We expect to see more than 2 million foreclosures this year," said Steve Preston, secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Preston addressed the industry group in a speech on Tuesday morning. For perspective: "That's roughly a third of the five and half or six million homes that are likely to be sold this year in our country."
Foreclosures are likely to continue to be a primary driver of supply of homes on market, he said, and they'll continue to influence home prices.
Industry and government efforts
Granted, these days people who are buying homes are getting into safer loans -- and that bodes well for the future.
"Today the U.S. government supports 90% of new mortgages in our country either through Fannie and Freddie or government insurance programs primarily like that of the FHA," Preston said. FHA-backed mortgages alone have gone from 2% of mortgage originations to almost a quarter of the market by recent counts, he said.
FHA loans have helped those who might have gotten a subprime loan in the recent past. The agency provides government-backed insurance on the mortgages it issues and allows buyers to put down as little as 3%. The FHA was created in the Great Depression to help low- and moderate-income home buyers.
A lot is being done to address the current tide of foreclosures as well.
The industry's Hope Now Alliance -- a group of counselors, mortgage-market participants, and mortgage servicers -- reports helping nearly 2.3 million homeowners avoid foreclosure through modifications and workouts since its inception last year. The government has increased funding for housing counseling and its Hope for Homeowners program helps struggling homeowners refinance into FHA loans.
But clearly, the issue isn't going away, and efforts need to be stepped up, Preston added.
"We receive consistent feedback from borrowers and counselors that servicers don't have the authority to help them or that loan-modification qualifications are so rigid that many people that can be helped are falling through the cracks," Preston said.
Unless the industry is aggressive, "Congress may lose patience and impose stronger measures on those in the business of homeownership," he said. "Now is the time to continue to be bold... as it relates to people who are coming forward and raising their hand to say 'I have a problem, I can't pay my mortgage, I need help.'" End of Story
Amy Hoak is a MarketWatch reporter based in Chicago. [more]
October 22, 2008 –
I thought earnings would be not as bad as expected. But its turning out in the first full week of earnings that they actually are worse than expected and not priced in which scared me out. WB posts $23B loss? God I expected a loss but not the worst loss in Bank Stock History.
Weak earnings rouse worries about global recession
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081022/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown_124
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writers Martin Crutsinger, Ap Economics Writers – 1 hr 56 mins ago
Global Financial Crisis Play Video CNBC – Global Financial Crisis
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, AP – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, Monday, Oct. 20, 2008, …
WASHINGTON – A barrage of poor earnings Wednesday from major corporations revived worries of a global recession and showed the depth of the financial crisis the Bush administration is trying to tackle.
World leaders will gather in Washington on Nov. 15 to discuss the global economic crisis. A senior administration official said Wednesday that the forum will be the first in a series of international meetings to discuss what economists predict could be a long and deep downturn.
Wachovia Corp., which is being bought by Wells Fargo for about $14 billion in stock, said it lost $23.89 billion in the third quarter. It earned $1.62 billion in the same quarter a year ago. Airplane maker Boeing reported its earnings slumped 38 percent as a strike halted production of commercial jets.
Merck & Co. said it will slash 7,200 jobs as part of a new restructuring program. The drugmaker's third-quarter profit plunged 28 percent, partly due to flat sales.
Tech companies are taking a hit, too, as the economy slows and spending by consumers and businesses drops. Yahoo is slashing 1,500 jobs while it braces for a deep downturn likely to extend well into 2009.
"We are going into what is very clearly a recession mode," Blake Jorgensen, Yahoo's chief financial officer, said in a Tuesday interview.
Even with the aggressive steps the government has already taken, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says it will take time before things get turned around.
"Clearly, we're going to have a number of difficult months ahead of us in terms of the real economy," Paulson said Tuesday in an interview on "The Charlie Rose Show."
Wall Street tumbled again Wednesday. The major indexes fell more than 1 percent, including the Dow Jones industrial average, which fell 350 points.
Asian markets veered sharply lower Wednesday, with Tokyo's Nikkei index tumbling 6.79 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was down 6.2 percent, while South Korea's main index shed 5.1 percent.
The major European indexes — Britain's FTSE 100, Germany's DAX and the CAC-40 in France — all slipped about 4 percent.
A week after Paulson announced the administration would spend $250 billion to buy stakes in U.S. banks, the Federal Reserve stepped up Tuesday with a new program to help money market mutual funds that have been squeezed by worried investors demanding to cash out their holdings.
The Fed said it would provide up to $540 billion in financing though a program run by JPMorgan Chase & Co. to purchase from mutual funds certificates of deposit, bank notes and commercial paper. The program, to be called the Money Market Investor Funding Facility, is designed to revive the market for commercial paper, short-term loans that are critical for keeping businesses running.
"If these money markets are not working properly, then the economy is significantly threatened because this is where businesses get their short-term financing for their day-to-day operations," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.
Money market funds hold about one-third of all commercial paper and Fed officials said that about $500 billion had flowed out of prime money market funds since August as investors became increasingly worried about their ability to redeem shares. On Sept. 18, the Treasury Department announced that it was tapping a $50 billion Treasury fund to provide guarantees for the assets in the money market accounts.
The Fed has already announced that starting next Monday it will begin making direct purchases of commercial paper in a further effort to bolster this market.
In other government actions to deal with the unfolding crisis, the Treasury Department announced that it had selected two major accounting firms to help manage the government's $700 billion financial-system rescue program passed by Congress on Oct. 3.
The program to buy distressed assets from banks is expected to spend $100 billion initially, while Paulson announced last week that another $250 billion would be committed to buying stock in banks as a way of shoring up their capital reserves so that they will resume more normal lending operations.
Paulson said in his television interview that banks might use part of the money they receive from the government to make acquisitions of weaker banks.
"There will be some situations where it is best for the economy and for the banking system for there to be a consolidation," he said.
That element of the program could prove controversial if strong banks employ the money they receive from the government not to make new loans but to swallow up rivals.
When the $700 billion bailout program was going through Congress, Paulson never mentioned the possibility that the money could be used to provide capital to banks, stressing instead that the other part of the program, having the government use the money to purchase distressed mortgage-related assets from the banks.
Paulson said that the emphasis in the program was changed in reaction to rapidly moving events as the situation in credit markets "became even more dire." He said that before changing emphasis he got input from a number of people including billionaire investor Warren Buffett.
The initiatives seem to be having a positive effect. Yields on Treasury bills and the interest rates banks charge to other banks have both fallen back to late-September levels, but analysts said financial markets will see more turbulence before the credit crisis is over.
Meanwhile, members of Congress are moving forward with efforts to overhaul the regulatory system with what could be the most sweeping changes since the 1930s, another period when Congress revamped how the financial system was regulated in response to the 1929 stock market crash and a wave of bank failures.
House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, who held hearings Tuesday on what changes should be made, said that what Congress produces next year will be "as important a set of economic decisions I think this country will be making since the Depression."
Democrats in Congress are also pushing efforts to assemble a second economic stimulus program that could total $150 billion or more. The White House has yet to endorse the idea, but has said President Bush was at least willing to consider a second stimulus measure.
__
Associated Press writer Michael Liedtke in San Francisco contributed to this report.
[more]
October 22, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: DUG
, BRK-A
, CVH
Well lets see, I buy Long I lose, I go short I lose, I buy Short ETF's
DUG, DTO and I lose. I buy BRK-b and I lose, I buy an oversold stock CVH and I lose.
October 22, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: CVH
but shorts have completely crushed it from $60 to $16.81
COVENTRY HLTH CARE
(NYSE: CVH)
NEW Real-time: 17.03 Down 11.46 (40.22%) 9:55am ET
October 22, 2008 –
Throughout history of the market whenever the market has dropped by 40%+ the market has always rebounded by at least 15%, after today's drop in the pre-market we are only up 5% from the lows of -40%+ drop. Expect another 10% rebound nearterm as the negative shifts to a positive nearterm. Today's news about UK going into a recession? Thats old news , everyone and their grandma knew that England has gone in a recession. When I was in England a cup of coffee cost me $5
and a small trip in a taxi cost $20. England was severely over-priced and a recession actually will bring it back to earth.
5 Reasons why a rebound is in the works near-term.
#1 Libor drops for an 8th straight day.
#2 Mortgage rates have dropped to 6% or lower again
30 Year Fixed 6.00%
15 Year Fixed 5.69%
http://finance.yahoo.com/#rates_mortgages
#3 Democrats in Congress are also pushing efforts to assemble a second economic stimulus program that could total $150 billion or more. The White House has yet to endorse the idea, but has said President Bush was at least willing to consider a second stimulus measure.
#4 Paulson vows action on crisis as earnings stagger
Hint that : Interest Rate cut coming next week.
#5 Nearterm rebound possible on optimism on Obama election for change. [more]
October 21, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: EXXI
EXXI went under $2 on IKE damage but it should recover to old highs.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=EXXI
October 21, 2008 –
Crude oil is Crashing again which means billions more into the economy via saved money at the gas pumps. Lower Oil will help the economy rebound much faster than the government can do on its own. My family was spending $600/mo in gasoline spending back & forth from work. Now that spending is down 25%. The extra left over money is going right into the economy thru other spending channels. I was surprised stocks were up so much yesterday with oil up big and even shocked that its down so much with Oil dropping like a rock in water today. [more]
October 21, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: SHLD
Sears looks like its got major downside risk Avoid shares of SHLD
October 21, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: BRK-B
Although thats alot better than the overall market fall. But will BRK-b rebound? There is no doubt in my mind that it will rebound from 20% fall. We will be looking at BRK-b at 10k and think why didn't we just throw all our money in BRK-b instead of trying to figure out which stock will survive when we have an absolute certainty of a rebound & survival with BRK-b
October 21, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: BRK-B
OK since we can't get the terms a Warren Buffet can get
on preferred shares of GS or GE then I have decided to buy tons of
BRK.b which is trading at only $4130 a far cry from earlier this year of $5000+.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BRK-B
October 20, 2008 –
Earnings season is here: Does PTEN deserve to have fallen off a CLIFF? [more]
October 20, 2008 –
The tight strangle hold on liquidity is lifting. The 3 month Libor rate is falling again and the FED is looking for another stimulas package plus another rate cut. Things finally falling in place for worried investors. We may finally have seen the bottom placed.
Bernanke hints at rate cut; Wall Street surges
By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer Jeannine Aversa, Ap Economics Writer – 51 mins ago
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081020/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown
WASHINGTON – Wall Street found some reasons for optimism Monday when the credit markets showed signs of easing and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke appeared to open the door for further interest rate cuts.
Bernanke, saying the country's economic weakness could last for some time, also threw his weight behind a fresh round of government stimulus. Stocks surged as investors interpreted some of his remarks as a hint the central bank would lower rates again soon.
Bernanke's remarks before the House Budget Committee marked his first endorsement of another round of government stimulus. Democrats on Capitol Hill have been pushing for another stimulus plan, but the Bush administration has been cool to the idea as the federal budget deficit explodes.
"With the economy likely to be weak for several quarters, and with some risk of a protracted slowdown, consideration of a fiscal package by the Congress at this juncture seems appropriate," Bernanke said in prepared testimony to the panel.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said an economic recovery bill could be as large as $150 billion. Economists have told leading Democrats the plan should be twice the size.
In an interview with The Associated Press on Friday, Pelosi said Congress is unlikely to approve a tax rebate before President Bush leaves office, however. She signaled that prospects are dim for a post-election session to pass an economic aid package.
Most individuals and couples received tax rebate checks of $600-$1,200 through the $168 billion stimulus package enacted in February.
Bernanke suggested that Congress design the stimulus package so that it will be timely, well targeted and would limit the longer-term affects on the government's budget deficit, which hit a record high in the recently ended budget year.
The economy has been beaten down by housing, credit and financial crises. Its woes are likely to drag into next year, leaving more people out of work and more businesses wary of making big investments.
U.S. stocks surged in early trading Monday as the credit markets showed signs of easing and after Bernanke's statements. The Dow Jones industrials rose almost 2 percent and the Standard & Poor's 500 index jumped 2.3 percent.
Bernanke said the package also should include provisions that would help break through the stubborn credit clog that is playing a major role in the economy's slowdown.
"If the Congress proceeds with a fiscal package, it should consider including measures to help improve access to credit by consumers, home buyers, businesses and other borrowers," Bernanke said. "Such actions might be particularly effective at promoting economic growth and job creation," he added.
The Fed and the world's other major central banks recently joined forces to slice interest rates, the first coordinated action of that kind in the Fed's history. The central bank meets next on Oct. 28-29 and many economists believe Fed policymakers will again lower its key rate — now at 1.50 percent — to brace the wobby economy.
Over time, "stimulus provided by monetary policy" along with the eventual stabilization in housing markets and improvements in credit markets will help the economy get back on firm footing, Bernanke said.
Dropping rates might induce consumers and businesses to boost their spending, an important ingredient to energize overall economic activity.
So far, though, a string of drastic actions by the Fed and the Bush administration has yet to turn around a bunker mentality. Banks fear lending money to each other and to their customers. Businesses are reluctant to hire and boost capital investments. Consumers have hunkered down. All the economy's problems are feeding off each other, creating a vicious cycle that Washington policymakers are finding difficult to break.
One-third of Americans are worried about losing their jobs, half fret they will be unable to keep up with mortgage and credit card payments, and seven in 10 are anxious that their stocks and retirement investments are losing value, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll of likely voters released Monday.
President Bush has repeatedly asked Americans to be patient and give the government's relief efforts time to work. Democrats on Capitol Hill, however, have insisted another round of economic stimulus is needed.
Unemployment could hit 7.5 percent or higher by next year. Many analysts predict the economy will shrink later this year and early next year, meeting the classic definition of a recession. Some believe the economy already jolted into reverse during the July-to-September quarter.
One of the president's chief economic advisers said Sunday that parts of the country probably already are experiencing a recession, and it could take a few months before the clogged credit system starts working again.
Speaking in a broadcast interview from California, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers noted that national unemployment stands at 6.1 percent. Ed Lazear said some areas of the U.S., such as California, have even higher rates of people out of work. "We are seeing what I think anyone would characterize as a recession in certain parts of the country," Lazear said.
Last week, the Treasury Department announced it would inject up to $250 billion in U.S. banks in return for partial ownership, something that hasn't been done since the Great Depression. The government hopes banks will use the capital infusions to rebuild their reserves and bolster lending to customers.
"We took this measure as a last resort," Bush said last week. "Had the government not acted, the hole in our financial system would have grown larger," he warned.
So far this year, 15 banks have failed, including the largest U.S. bank failure in history, compared with three last year. And Wall Street's five biggest investment firms were swallowed by other companies, filed bankruptcy or converted themselves into commercial banks to weather the financial storm.
In other efforts to stem the crisis, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is temporarily guaranteeing new issues of bank debt — fully protecting the money even if the institution fails.
The FDIC also said it would provide unlimited deposit insurance for non-interest bearing accounts, which small businesses often use to cover payrolls and other expenses. Frequently, these accounts exceed the current $250,000 insurance limit, so the expanded insurance should discourage nervous companies from pulling their money out.
The United States and other top economic powers also have adopted a five-point action plan and pledge to do all they can to provide relief.
__
Associated Press writers Pan Pylas in London and Tom Raum in Washington contributed to this report.
[more]
October 17, 2008 –
Everytime it looks like a rally , I jump in only to get crushed by shorts by the end of the day. Even when Warren Buffet said buy I got crushed.
October 17, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: TIN.DL
The TIN man is on fire today.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TIN
October 16, 2008 –
Related tickers DUG, DTO, DIG, USO
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
October 16, 2008 –
Last time I got suckered by their rally but learned that majority of the airlines have hedged their fuel at much higher prices and therefore they are not going to benefit from the drop in oil prices anytime soon.
Stay with DUG, DTO for a play in continued oil declines
October 16, 2008 –
Related tickers DTO, DUG, DIG, USO
LONDON (AFP) - Oil prices slumped further on Thursday, with Brent crude briefly sliding close to 67 dollars a barrel and the lowest level for more than 15 months, as slowing energy demand took its toll, traders said.
Crude oil futures were down more than 50 percent from record highs of above 147 dollars reached in July, when prices had rocketed on fears of supply disruptions.
Traders were awaiting the latest weekly snapshot of US energy inventories due Thursday for a lead on the state of oil demand in the United States, the world's biggest consumer of crude.
The Department of Energy's latest data on inventories was delayed by a day owing to a public holiday in the United States on Monday.
"Crude prices have continued to slide, as global recessionary concerns intensified," Sucden analyst Nimit Khamar said Thursday ahead of the keenly-awaited oil data out of Washington.
Brent North Sea crude for delivery in November had slumped to 67.17 dollars a barrel -- the lowest point since late May, 2007 -- in early London trade.
It recovered to 68.60 dollars by about 1145 GMT, down 2.10 dollars from Wednesday's close.
The contract had ended down 3.73 dollars on Wednesday as mounting fears of a global recession raised expectations of a prolonged slowdown to worldwide energy demand.
In Thursday trade, New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for November delivery, was down 1.46 dollars at 73.08 dollars a barrel after sinking as low as 71.21 -- a level last reached in late August, 2007.
"The fears about this global credit crisis leading to an extended economic slump, and perhaps a recession, really are causing investors to bail out of equities and also oil," said Victor Shum from the Purvin and Gertz energy consultancy.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its estimate for growth in demand for oil this year and in 2009 on Wednesday largely because of an "excessive" easing of demand in the United States.
For 2008, the cartel slashed its estimate for growth in demand to 550,000 barrels per day, giving average total demand of about 86.5 million bpd.
The cartel was to hold a special meeting on November 18 to discuss the global financial crisis and its impact on the oil market. Several OPEC members are calling for a cut to the organization's crude output to shore up prices.
"Until there are clear indications out of OPEC, I think we can expect more downward volatility," Shum said on Thursday.
Oil prices had skidded on Wednesday on recession fears and also following news that a Nigerian court had ordered Anglo-Dutch energy giant Royal Dutch Shell to hand over land to locals -- a key demand of armed rebels camped in Nigeria's crude-producing region. [more]
October 16, 2008 –
DUG & DTO are Ultra Short ETF's on OIL which rise when Oil falls, while DIG is a Pro oil ETF and rises when oil rises. [more]
October 16, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: DUG
DUG is down this morning but OIL will continue downward Spiral
See link why:
http://tinyurl.com/4x4z5m
October 16, 2008 –
This will cause any rally at the open today to fade fast. Don't get caught in yet another bear rally.
October 15, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: DUG
, DIG
like they are hot Potato's, no one wants to
get burned holding them ahead of Obama becoming President.
http://tinyurl.com/OIL-Gas-Index
October 15, 2008 –
If the economy is going to shrink for 6 straight months then I don't expect stocks to start a serious rebound until after Obama is sitting in the office in January. All the economic data that will be coming in will only get worse for the next 3 months much like today's terrible retail data. ------------------------------------------------------------------- [more]
October 15, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: DUG
, DIG
Oil price slides below 71$ to 13-month low
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081015/bs_afp/commoditiesenergyoilprice_081015150347
41 minutes ago
LONDON (AFP) - The price of oil fell below 71 dollars on Wednesday, its lowest level for more than 13 months, as recession fears raised concerns about a prolonged drop in energy demand, analysts said.
The global financial crisis is hitting world demand for oil, although the effect on emerging economies is unclear, OPEC said on Wednesday.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries slashed its estimate of growth in demand this year and shaved its estimate for 2009, largely because of an "excessive" easing of demand in the United States, the single biggest energy market.
Prices also fell Wednesday on news that a Nigerian court had ordered Anglo-Dutch energy giant Royal Dutch Shell to hand over land to locals, a key demand of armed rebels camped in Nigeria's oil-producing region.
Brent North Sea crude for November delivery fell to 70.70 dollars a barrel -- the lowest level since late August 2007 -- before recovering to 70.93 dollars, down 3.60 dollars compared to Tuesday's close.
New York's main contract, light sweet crude for November, shed 3.40 dollars to 75.23 dollars a barrel after hitting an intra-day low point of 74.92.
Brent crude has fallen by more than half from a record high 147.50 dollars in July, when prices rocketed on fears of supply disruptions.
Oil prices are sliding on "concerns that the coordinated action by central banks over the last week will not be enough to rescue economies from falling into a global recession and hence weighing on oil demand," Sucden analyst Nimit Khamar said.
A top US central banker, Janet Yellen, said Tuesday that the United States "appears to be in a recession." There are also growing fears Japan and Europe are heading for a spell of economic stagnation or recession.
The German economy is heading for a slowdown but the downturn will not be a long-lasting one, Chancellor Angela Merkel said Wednesday.
Meanwhile a Nigerian court ordered Shell to hand over land around its giant Bonny oil terminal to the local population, the multinational said Wednesday.
"The ruling was given some months ago but we have appealed," Shell's spokesman in Nigeria, Precious Okolobo, told AFP.
He did not say whether oil lifting and export activities at the terminal, considered to be the largest in Africa, would be affected by the ruling.
Markets were meanwhile awaiting the latest weekly snapshot of US energy inventories due Thursday for a lead on the state of demand for oil in the world's biggest consumer of crude.
The Department of Energy's latest data on inventories has been delayed a day owing to a public holiday in the United States on Monday.
Oil traders were also looking ahead to an extraordinary meeting of OPEC on November 18 as member countries fret over falling prices, with some calling for cuts in output as a result. [more]
October 15, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: DUG
Last week when Oil fell to current prices DUG hit high of $86 intra-day today its at $56. Trying to regain its $30 loss in 3 days.
People actually sold off DUG thinking the economy fixed itself overnight on Monday's 900+ point rally.
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
October 15, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: FSC
Its been beaten down unfairly like its a sub-prime garbage. [more]
October 14, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: INTC
Intel is Rising afterhours after earnings:
INTC Intel beats by $0.01 rises afterhours
ALTR Altera beats by $0.01
USANA sees Q4 $0.64-0.70 vs $0.64 First Call
October 14, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: GNW
The company will have a positive reaction to earnings, because it has been beaten down like it lost its billions in Cash. Not the case: [more]
October 14, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: GNW
, GS
, STT
in this bear market. Stay away from other sectors as the bear market is still biting those stocks which will be posting dissappointing numbers. But the financials have been beaten up so badly that any numbers they report will be called not as bad as expected just like last July 16th to July 30 when financials went on a 2 week rally.
The other sectors in my opinion did not fall as much as the financials and are at risk of falling again on bad earnings which are certain. [more]
October 14, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: XL
, MS
, STT
in this bear market and have started shorting again this morning. But this is unlike the other 2 day rallies where it was easy to have confidence in shorting again.
This rally has legs and don't be shocked to see rally continue for the entire week. The investors that bought PUTS last week will be wiped out before the options expire this Friday. Thats how the market works. When people are so confident on the one side of the trade, all of a sudden it turns and wipes them out in a one two punch. [more]
October 13, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: MET
, MS
on MS investment.
October 13, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: MET
, PRU
in rebounding today. MET up only 12% while PRU up 37%
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=MET
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=PRU
October 10, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: LNC
, TMK
DJIA at 8000 time to put your bets on a dead Cat bounce in LNC & TMK
why these two? Because there is no uncertainty in these two now that they have given out their numbers for the qtr, So when we do get a snap back these two should snap back the hardest, with uncertainty having been lifted in these two stock.
October 10, 2008 –
faster than the government plans will.
October 10, 2008 –
G-7 Officials Say No `Harmonized' Response to Credit Crisis
By Simon Kennedy [more]
October 10, 2008 –
Then it will be back to market Bear rearing its ugly head again. [more]
October 10, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: LNC
This is with a company that is reporting .50-.70 eps for the qtr. So if your holding any stocks at $15+ and earning less than .50-.70 you better get out now. [more]
October 10, 2008 –
"Action could be taken any day or minute"
This morning Dow Jones reported that Italy has taken the lead in banning short selling in all stocks this morning.
October 09, 2008 –
This is an historic rout of epic size. It will be down in historic records for many years.
My caps score of 5000+ pts in June 2008 is now all gone. I am only 100 pts away from being negative.
October 09, 2008 –
Volatility Index rose above 60 level for first time ever!
October 09, 2008 –
|
RELATED TICKERS: JRCC
, CSIQ
, APWR
JRCC , CSIQ, APWR all three were over $30+ just a couple of months ago.
October 09, 2008 –
in just 7 trading days. Thats almost an unheard of decline last seen in 1987 crash. Shorts / Bears showing no signs of backing off even with signs that the world government moves are working to ease the freeze of credit.
October 09, 2008 –
Signs the Coordinated moves by FED. and world governments is working
The credit freeze is lifting.
(AFX UK Focus) 2008-10-09 12:10
http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=6939220&action=article
LONDON, Oct 9 (Reuters) - The interbank cost of borrowing overnight euro and sterling funds eased on Thursday after the coordinated interest rate cuts by world central banks and other myriad steps from authorities the previous day to unfreeze money markets. The cost of borrowing overnight dollars, however, remained significantly above the Federal Reserve's new target rate, reflecting financial institutions' demand for greenbacks to cover dollar positions, exposure and fund dollar assets.
Three-month borrowing on interbank markets remained expensive near this week's highs across all currencies, and actual lending beyond a week or two remained frozen, traders said.
That was despite the rate cuts and attempts from governments and central banks around the world to fix broken money markets.
The European Central Bank, for example, halved the premium it charges banks for emergency overnight borrowing, upped the amount it pays on overnight deposits and offered unlimited weekly funds at a fixed rate.
For more on all these measures, see [ID:nPEK54269].
"They're doing what they can. But it's like a donkey in the field: you give it lots of carrots but it doesn't mean it will pull the cart along," said the head of rates trading desk at a large bank in London.
He said the only interbank activity at time horizons of a month or more is in the sovereign and supranational sphere.
Attention is now fixed on the British Bankers Association's fixing of London interbank offered rates (Libor) later on Thursday to see if there's any sign policymakers are getting traction in interbank lending.
In London on Thursday, interbank rates for overnight sterling deposits were last indicated around 4.5 percent , the Bank of England's new base rate following the half percentage point cut.
Overnight euro deposit rates were last indicated in a 3.5-4.25 percent intraday range, close to the ECB's new 3.75 percent target rate.
Overnight dollars were lower on the day at around 3.6 percent but that was well above the Federal Reserve's new 1.5 percent target rate.
Three-month sterling deposit rates were last indicated around 6.4 percent, three-month euro rates at 5.25 percent and three-month dollars at 6.41 percent .
All these rates are near this week's peaks, among the highest levels in years.
"The ECB and Fed are taking steps to get control of overnight rates, but nothing beyond that," said a money markets trader in Dublin.
"It's very, very disappointing," he said.
There is typically a premium on deposit rates over Libor fixings because Libor is taken from a smaller sample of large banks in the market.
Interbank deposit rates are merely indicative prices and not necessarily the rates at which banks actually lend to each other. The once-a-day Libor fix is also an indicative rate, but is a global reference point for trillions of dollars of contracts for financial, corporate and household borrowing.
Other signs of money market stress appeared on Thursday, such as widening spreads between interbank rates government borrowing costs and anticipated policy rates.
These spreads are key measures of the cost of funding throughout the financial system and therefore financial market stress.
The gap between three-month dollar Libor and three-month U.S. Treasury bill yields, known as the "TED spread", rose to over 400 basis points.
Three-month dollar, euro and sterling Libor spreads over expected policy rates measured by average Overnight Index Swaps -- known as Libor/OIS spreads -- are also at historic levels.
These moves come despite the central banks' money market interventions.
The ECB and Bank of England joined the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia on Thursday in pumping billions of short-term dollar funds into the system.
tf.TFN-Europe_newsdesk@thomsonreuters.com cmr
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October 09, 2008 –
Its highly possible considering its starting at $4's and has a forward PE of 2's. The earnings already signed and contracted for the year of 2009 should make APWR a well known and respected alternative Energy company. This in turn will make its shares rise as well at least back to $10+
A-Power Energy Receives Contract for 50 2.7MW Wind Turbines with China National Automation Control System Corp.
Monday October 6, 8:30 am ET
SHENYANG, China, Oct. 6 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- A-Power Energy Generation Systems, Ltd. (Nasdaq: APWR - News; "A-Power"), announced today that it has signed its second sales contract with China National Automation Control System Corp. ("CACS") (www.cacs.com.cn) for the sale of 50 2.7 MW wind turbines. This is in addition to the previously announced contract with CACS for five 2.7MW units. These units are expected to be delivered by July, 2009.
These 2.7MW wind turbines will be produced at A-Power's new wind turbine production facility in Shenyang, China with components the company has secured from Fuhrlander AG and other European wind power component suppliers, which will begin arriving in November. This facility consists of two production lines with a designed annual capacity of 300 units of 2.7MW wind turbines and 420 units of 750kW wind turbines, totaling over 1.1GW in annual output.
CACS, a subsidiary of China National Machinery & Equipment Group, has been a leading provider of power generation solutions to both China and the international markets since 1981. A-Power will supply wind turbines to CACS' wind farm projects in the Gansu province and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
Mr. Shenghang Wang, General Manager of, CACS commented, "We look forward to our expanded relationship with A-Power. Their 2.7MW wind turbine has already been market tested by Fuhrlander in Europe and is currently the largest land-based wind turbine that is commercially available to us in China. These large turbines will help us achieve a greater amount of wind energy output in each of our new wind farms in Gansu and Inner Mongolia."
Mr. Jinxiang Lu, A-Power's Chairman and CEO commented, "As expected, we continue to turn our previously announced wind turbine LOIs into sales contracts and we are excited to announce the contract for an additional 50 2.7MW wind turbines with CACS.
We are currently in late-stage discussions to sign additional contracts with CACS and the other parties that had signed letters of intent with A-Power in Q1 2008, which in aggregate provide for an additional 325 wind turbines. In addition, we are in discussions with a number of new potential buyers. Based on these discussions, we expect to announce additional contracts over the coming months for both our 2.7MW and 750kW wind turbine units."
About A-Power
A-Power Energy Generation Systems, Ltd., through its PRC operating subsidiary, Liaoning GaoKe Energy Group Co., Ltd., is the largest provider of distributed power generation systems in China and entered into China's wind energy market in 2008. The Company is also focused on developing and commercializing additional renewable energy technologies and has strategic relationships with both Tsinghua University and the China Sciences Academy in Guangzhou.
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, about A-Power. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts, including statements relating to expected future contracts and related delivery schedules. Such forward-looking statements, based upon the current beliefs and expectations of A-Power's management, are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from the forward looking statements. The following factors, among others, could cause actual results to differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements: business conditions in China; continued compliance with government regulations; legislation or regulatory environments, requirements or changes adversely affecting the businesses in which A-Power is engaged; cessation or changes in government incentive programs; fluctuations in customer demand; production delays, component shortages, management of rapid growth and transitions to new markets; intensity of competition from or introduction of new and superior products by other providers of distributed power generation and other energy generation technology; timing, approval and market acceptance of new product introductions; general economic conditions; and geopolitical events, as well as other relevant risks detailed in A-Power's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The information set forth herein should be read in light of such risks. Neither A-Power nor GaoKe assumes any obligation to update the information contained in this press release.
For more information, please contact:
Ian Shanno
Union IR
(310) 928-3780
Source: A-POWER ENERGY GENERATION SYSTEMS, LTD./XPRN CHINA [more]
October 09, 2008 –
and is rising on bad news? This usually means we have hit bottom when you see stocks that lowered guidance rise after initial fall.
Look at other stocks that have been completely crushed in the last 5 weeks.
APWR, SYNA, CSIQ, JRCC, GSIG, JASO, ISCA, CF, IPI, MOS, POT,
Chinese stocks have been crushed the most with the China index down 65% , can you imagine the USA being down 65% if our GDP growth dropped from 11.5% to 8% , they still are growing twice as fast as the USA's best years. [more]
October 08, 2008 –
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RELATED TICKERS: HMY
, GFI
, AUY
and away from stocks and paper money. This seems like the perfect storm for Gold investors right now.
October 08, 2008 –
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RELATED TICKERS: AUY
, HMY
, GFI
and we know what happened to gold stock prices soon thereafter.
October 08, 2008 –
Can't believe how much Gold stocks are rallying. [more]
October 08, 2008 –
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RELATED TICKERS: MON
This has to be bottom? What else can the FED give us?
October 08, 2008 –
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RELATED TICKERS: MON
MON is soaring on less than expected loss.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=MON
October 08, 2008 –
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RELATED TICKERS: AZZ
even though its raised estimates for 2009 and 2008.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=AZZ
Now if a stock that raised estimates drops 50% in this market then god help those stocks lowering guidance.
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