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July 2011

Recs

41

Does This Look Like The Setup For A Big Drop To You?

July 07, 2011 – Comments (36)

This current rally makes no sense to me. I'm seeing a lot of macro headwinds, yet the market is headed up. I suspect a bunch of big banks are going to get zorbo'ed really hard when the PIIGS end up defaulting. I suspect that the debt that the Chinese local govs have run up will eat up most of their currency reserves. I suspect that commodities will fall as demand drops. The ECRI is predicting a slow-down and their track record is pretty good. Hiring is picking up, but slowly. People's personal balance sheets have improved, but aren't solid yet. The next big invention (whatever it is) hasn't reached mass conciousness yet. So I don't see a lot of reasons for wild optimism right now.   [more]

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