14th July 2009 -- this was when I referred to the 99s CAPs club as the holy grail. Below is my amatuerish post: [more]
a) Passionate management is great to have, but may not be able to execute. It's very hard to find a combination of passionate management who are good operators in a huge potential market.
b) A strong moat tends to lose its meaning if your customer is essentially broke i.e. sometimes, a good moat may not be enough.
c) There is usually a very good reason why a stock is trading for cheap or lower valuation for years. Make sure you understand that reason.
d) If it seems too hard to understand, it's probably better to leave it alone -- however clever the thesis may appear.
e) At some point, if you find yourself hoping for too many things to occur for your thesis to work out -- you may have to consider that you have gone from "buy and hold" to "buy and hope". [more]
“The market itself is very volatile. We've had 95 years completed this century. We're in the middle of 1996 and we're close to a 10 percent decline. In the 95 years so far, we've had 53 declines in the market of 10 percent or more. Not 53 down years. The market might have been up 26 finished the year up four, and had a 10 percent correction. So we've had 53 declines in 95 years. That's once every two years. Of the 53, 15 of the 53 have been 25 percent or more. That's a bear market. So 15 in 95 years, about once every six years you're going to have a big decline.” [more]
Not suggesting that one should do it per se -- but from time to time, this serves as a great mental experiment -- especially when you are in the heat of battle, and may occassionally lose sight of the big picture. [more]
Security analysis cannot presume to lay down general rules as to the "proper value" of any given common stock ... The prices of common stocks are not carefully thought out computations, but the resultants of a welter of human reactions -- Ben Graham and David Dodd, 1940