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wcaseym (80.63)

October 2007

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Big Bic: View for the next 47 years!

October 27, 2007 – Comments (0)

... here is updated/revised paper.  This time, it is entitled World Energy to 2050, A half Century of Decline.  Here is Conclusion part (... link to whole paper at the end):  [more]

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Scorecard: American Dream

October 25, 2007 – Comments (0)

 When it comes to producing billionaires, America is doing great. ...  [more]

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We're in a post-peak oil production phase now!

October 24, 2007 – Comments (1)

It's true, ... according to this executive summary:  [more]

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Gambling, ... er investing unlimited!

October 21, 2007 – Comments (0)

   Hmmmn, ... investing is like a highly modified poker game, ... a game in which we almost never ever get to see what the cards dealt to us are going to be, what they are, nor what they were. It's a game in which the dealer can see all the cards, ... and usually chooses which ones he deals to us, and then does not let us see what they were, even when we have lost.

In an ideal world of investing, we need to know everything, ... but in real world of investing we cannot. Partly, ... because there are people more powerful than us who know some of the things we need to know, and they are not telling. Or worse, they say they are telling, ... but give us false information (or disinformation, or misinformation), and sometimes, they are just plain mistaken themselves, ... but we assume that because they are big guys they couldn't possibly be mistaken, so they take little guys down with them when they fall. They can even, by making it a condition of us playing with them, force us to give them information that they can use against us. This menas that the big question for us investors boils down to this: "In the game in which we need to know everything but cannot, and in which others have a knowledge advantage against us, what do we do?"

Well, ... perhaps one should start with learning what cannot be known, ... cannot be known by us and the big guys. That should place us, at least, on the equal footings with big guys, ... make it neutral, if you will. Next, we should look at areas where ours and the big guys knowledge is equal. This, potentially, may be placing us in the position of better understanding of what that knowledge means, ... and perhaps allowing us to turn that knowladge to the advantage by understanding or interpreting it better than the big guys.

Finally, determining where there is a knowledge imbalance: where big guys know stuff we do not, ... making it the point of decision not to invest, ... but to retreat, avoid, await another day, bow out.

Hmmm, ...???

C., ... just musing out loud!)  [more]

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Hee Haw! Oil smashing records!

October 16, 2007 – Comments (0)

... only about 13 bucks to go to hit 100!  Who would of thought?

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iAVILbBgW5kyx-a0WbNWfcGzm6Sg

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We're doomed!

October 15, 2007 – Comments (0)

 At this point we are committed to going over the edge.

World Energy and Population

http://paulchefurka.com/WEAP/WEAP.pdf

C., ... not convinced that this WEAP model is accurate enough to bank on it!

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Ethanol, schmetanol

October 11, 2007 – Comments (1)

    This article argues that there are alternatives to liquid motor fuels, ... and we don't have to go back to a fuel we have known how to make for a thousand years.

http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9861379

C.
  [more]

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Stock buybacks...

October 09, 2007 – Comments (0)

...are all the rage in the cash-rich oil industry. ExxonMobil, for example, is buying back, ... oh, ... ~$30 billion of its shares each year. If this trend continues, ExxonMobil will have repurchased all its stock by about 2024! Imagine?

C.

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Phlunkin' Maroons!

October 05, 2007 – Comments (2)

There you have it, ... from WSJ:

The world economy has managed, with some indigestion, to swallow the rise of oil prices past $80 a barrel. How well could it survive $100 a barrel?

The answer is quite well -- [...]

[...] Demand is chugging along. The Paris-based International Energy Agency sees world oil demand in the fourth quarter rising by 2.8%, or 2.3 million barrels a day from a year ago, to nearly 88 million barrels a day.


How Economy Could Survive Oil At $100 a Barrel
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119102487310743331.html?mod=hps_us_pageone

Think about this! ... Nearly 88-million bbs/d, ... yet in August 2007 world was producing only, ... oh, about 84.6-million bbls/d, ... and that is less - by about 850,000 bbls/d then produced in August 2006. No foolin', ... that is what the same IEA is reporting!  [more]

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Private protection industry perhaps?

October 02, 2007 – Comments (0)

Investment in, that is!  Consider:

A single Blackwater security contractor costs the government $1,222 every day to guard U.S. civilian personnel, or $445,000 per year. That's six times the cost of getting a U.S. Army soldier to perform the same function.

Amount billed per day for a Blackwater senior manager: $1,075

Amount paid per day to U.S. Gen. David Petraeus: $493

C.

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