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April 2009



Why home prices will not stop falling when they hit the long term trendline

April 24, 2009 – Comments (5)

I have seen the argument made that once housing prices reach the long term trend they will stop falling.  I don't understand the stupidity of some people.

By definition the trend is in the middle.  If it was the bottom then it wouldn't be the trend it would be the bottom and the trend would be higher.



Investment Vs. Speculation

April 24, 2009 – Comments (0)

I'm rereading "Margin of Safety" and came accross a great explanation of the difference between investing and speculating.  [more]



Unemployment vs. school enrollment

April 24, 2009 – Comments (0)

Just finished a paper on cyclicality of university/college with regards to the business cycle.  Used a 10 year data set with ~12,000 people aged 16-25.  Turns out that in Canada, just like the united states, when unemployment rises by 1% school enrollment increasess by 0.8%  [more]



The magic of your own credit as profits

April 23, 2009 – Comments (5)

Fascinating blog post from    [more]



Shorting all ULTRA etf's is stupid

April 21, 2009 – Comments (2)

It has been shown that shorting all leveraged etf's will over the long term provide you with a positive score and accuracy points for all picks.  It is not however the best way to use those tickers within CAPS.  [more]



How to build a winning CAPS portfolio

April 20, 2009 – Comments (4)

Since you are only allowed to make 200 picks in CAPS it is important to think of how to best make use of those picks.  There are two main approaches that can be used to filling out your portfolio:

MICRO/BOTTOM UP APPROACH - This involves examining individual stocks to determine if they have been priced inneficiently by the stock market.  This strategy basically involves researching companies and comparing their market price to their intrinsic valuation.  Tough to do and very time consuming.   [more]



Some new leveraged ETF's for you to play with

April 17, 2009 – Comments (0)

The new funds are known as:



NCTY is going to get world of warcraft slammed

April 15, 2009 – Comments (5)

Apparently a chinese document got leaked on the internet from the president of NCTY saying that blizzard will no longer be using The9 to run World of Warcraft in China.  There goes NCTY's main source of revenue.



JOSB: Buy one suit get two free

April 15, 2009 – Comments (0)

I knew the retail environment was bad but wow, JOSB is offering 3 suits for the price of one.  It is ugly out there.



Why the internet is a game changer - music, movies, books, newspapers

April 15, 2009 – Comments (3)

We have already seen the impact of the internet on the music industry.  As technology continues to improve we are starting to see the same impact on the movie industry.  [more]



"Suprise Fall in US Retail Sales"...CAPS players called this back in jan/feb

April 14, 2009 – Comments (1)

US retail sales were down 1.1% from feb. and 9.4% from last march:  [more]



Load up the shorts: the next leg down has started

April 13, 2009 – Comments (3)

Time to close up any long positions you have and start thinking about getting short.  The bear market rally is ending.  I thought it might run long enough for goldman to issue its new share offering (tuesday?) but looks like we are headed back down again.  [more]



Suggestion re: scoring system

April 06, 2009 – Comments (4)

I made a previous post about the problem with the scoring system encouraging people to keep losing picks open since they attempt to keep their accuracy high.  It generated some useful discussion from some of the top players.  [more]

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