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September 2009



Adobe - A House of Mud?

September 21, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: ADBE , OMTR.DL

Adobe Systems, Inc. (Nasdaq: ADBE) is acquiring Omniture, Inc. (Nasdaq: OMTR) for $21.50 per share in cash.  [more]



The Consumer Services Industry

September 20, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: TUC.DL , SP , SFLY

We were recently asked about the companies in the Consumer Services Industry. As has been our custom, we are happy to provide information about specific companies or industries, provided the companies and/or industries are on the Wax Ink watch list.

For those of you that have not seen the Wax Ink watch list, feel free to download it at this link.


From the inception of our watch list, we have used Yahoo Finance as the basis for the various industries that make up our watch list. In fact, if you follow this link, you will find all of the industries that make up our watch list.

Please note that with the exception of 27 companies, our watch list contains only publicly traded domestic companies, that trade on the NYSE, Nasdaq, or AMEX, and as a general rule, companies in the finance and banking industry are not included.

With that said, we recently completed a preliminary valuation worksheet on the 12 companies from our watch list that make up the Consumer Services Industry. Of those 12 companies we found four (4) that had recent prices attractive enough to warrant further research, but none that impressed us enough to start that research anytime soon.

Admittedly, we liked the businesses of several of the companies. Mac-Gray Corporation (NYSE: TUC) is in the laundry business. Actually it is a laundry facilities contractor, managing the laundry rooms of many multi-units housing facilities across America.

We also liked the business Standard Parking Corporation (Nasdaq: STAN) was in, parking facilities management. The company manages parking facilities in 330 cities across American and Canada.

One other company we found intriguing was Shutterfly, Inc. (Nasdaq: SFLY), the Internet-based personal publishing service that enables consumers to share, print, and preserve their memories through photos by using the company's technology, manufacturing, web design, and merchandising capabilities.

If you would like a copy of our worksheet on the companies of the Consumer Services Industry, just click the link below. The worksheet you will download from a secure site, contains links to additional worksheets on each company on our watch list for the industry.





CenturyTel - A Wax Ink Raw Value Report

September 13, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: T , Q.DL2 , VZ

Had management had the stones to forego the dividend for fiscal 2008, and not squander company resources on stock buybacks, the company would have had to borrow no money and could have paid down existing debt by almost 9%.

But management has neither the stones, nor the inclination to eliminate dividends, and with such inefficient managers and directors, where is the catalyst going to come from to move the stock price towards $110?  [more]



Our Research is Flawed!

September 07, 2009 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: DOV , CTL , PBI

At Wax Ink, we define investing as the art and science of managing capital at risk.

A few weeks ago, a friend of mine sent me a spreadsheet he had downloaded from The Drip Investing Resource Center. The spreadsheet was titled U.S. Dividend Champions. Opening it, I found the names of 109 companies, all of whom had increased their dividends year over year for at least the past 25 years, and in one case, year over year for the past 56 years!

In the accompanying e-mail, my friend explained that his financial advisor had sent him the spreadsheet link and explained that the advisor's firm was going to adjust his portfolio using the companies listed on the spreadsheet, and would I please look at these companies and see what I thought.

As I said, the spreadsheet I received contained the names of 109 companies, of which 19 companies held no investment interest for me from the start. These 19 companies were in the Banking Industry, the Insurance Industry, the REIT Industry, the Asset Management Industry, and the Financial Services Industry. In other words, and this is strictly my opinion, these companies were thieves left hiding after the recent financial sector meltdown.

Determining a Reasonable Value Estimate for 90 companies is not something I can do in an afternoon. At best, I can do four in a day. After that, my poor old addled brain just turns to vinegar.

In the end, of the 90 companies listed on the spreadsheet, 29 were in the Buy range, 2 were in the First Sell range, 10 were in the Close range, and 49 were in between the Buy and the Sell ranges.

When we invest, we are taking a risk. If we have done our due diligence and understand something about the company we are investing in, what we are actually doing is mitigating some of the risk we have decided we want to take.

But the main reason for our willingness to take the risk in the first place, greed aside, is that we believe there is a greater potential for the growth of our risk capital than there is for the loss of that same capital. But how can we know this?

The simple answer is, we can't.

The research we do at Wax Ink, is for our own investments, we simply share with you our results. While we read through a company's most recent SEC Form 10-K and SEC Form DEF 14A in an effort to get a better understanding of company finances and company management, we know that there is a good possibility our research could be flawed. It happens. It is simply part of the world of investment risk.

To help mitigate that risk we make a very simple assumption. We assume that the Reasonable Value Estimate we came up with as a value for the flawed. Yep, we start off assuming we have made an error.

To compensate for that error, we do several things; we discount our Reasonable Value Estimate by 50%, we fix our minimum hold period to 5 years, and we determine a price range over which we will add shares of stock to our portfolio, by determining what we call our Risk Adjusted Buy Target.

The idea is to add a few shares when the stock price reaches our Buy Target, and continue to add shares on pullbacks in price based on our Risk Adjusted Buy Target. In the event the price of a stock is at or below our Risk Adjusted Buy Target when we finish our research, we simply take a full percentage position in the stock. In other words, there is no dollar cost averaging in that situation.

Of the 90 companies on the spreadsheet that we reviewed 6 of the 29 companies whose prices were within our Buy Target Range, had prices at our below our Risk Adjusted Buy Target.

To recap, 32% of the companies we valued were within our Buy Target range, and of the companies within our Buy Target Range, 21% were with in our Risk Adjusted Buy Target range. In addition, 2% of the companies were within our First Sell range, 11% were within our Close Target range, and 54% were somewhere in between Buy and Sell.

For those of you interested, you can download the PDF version of the spreadsheet we reviewed by clicking on the link below. It contains our estimate of prices as well as links to each and every stock we built a worksheet for. We hope it helps.



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