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September 2013

Recs

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Chico's FAS - Value Alert

September 30, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: CHS

Texas (September 30, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a Positive Investment Interest opinion for Chico’s FAS (NYSE: CHS) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $31-$36.  [more]

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Performance - Week Ending 09/27/2013

September 29, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SAI , MYE , GFF

For the individual investor, it’s always something. One week the markets reacted to what they think the Federal Reserve Bank will do regarding the dreaded taper. The next week the markets react to what they think the Congress will do regarding the federal budget. As I have often said, being an individual investor is not for the feint of heart.  [more]

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Healthways - Value Alert

September 27, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: HWAY

Texas (September 27, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a Negative Investment Interest opinion for Healthways, Inc. (Nasdaq: HWAY) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $16-$19.  [more]

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Robert Half International - Value Alert

September 26, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: RHI

Texas (September 26, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a No Investment Interest opinion for Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $33-$40.  [more]

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Juniper Networks - Value Alert

September 25, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: JNPR

Texas (September 25, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a No Investment Interest opinion for Juniper Networks (Nasdaq: JNPR) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $24-$29.  [more]

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Panera Bread - Value Alert

September 24, 2013 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: PNRA

Texas (September 24, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a Negative Investment Interest opinion for Panera Bread (Nasdaq: PNRA) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $71-$84.  [more]

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Hawaiian Holdings - Value Alert

September 23, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: HA

Texas (September 23, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a Positive Investment Interest opinion for Hawaiian Holdings (NYSE: HA) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $40-$47.  [more]

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Harmonic - Value Alert

September 22, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: HLIT

Texas (September 22, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a Positive Investment Interest opinion for Harmonic, Inc. (Nasdaq: HLIT) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $18-$20.  [more]

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Performance - 09/20/2013

September 21, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: MMM , XOM , MCD

Wrong! Wrong! Wrong! Wrong! I was completely wrong. I said last week that individual investors would take it up the whazoo because the Fed was going to implement the taper. But it didn’t happen. The Fed got a nut teasing the investment community and then went home.

Golly Wally, how do you get a nut?

Apparently the fed prez from Kansas City was a bit irked that the taper was put off while the fed prez from St. Louis appeared to be on the fence, noting that the if they wanted to during the October meeting, they could vote to start the taper.

Golly Wally, what’s a taper?

The other thing I was wrong about was Larry Summers. I believed he would be nominated as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. But surprise surprise Sergeant Carter, Mr. Summers withdrew his name from consideration.

Golly Wally, who is Sergeant Carter?

Economic projections. Obviously I’m not very astute when it comes to discerning the future. Certainly, like the rest of the world, I can make a guess, but that is exactly what it would be, a guess. Not an educated guess, just a guess.

I would never consider an investment position based on what my perception of future economic conditions (aka guess) might be, just as I would never consider an investment position by how some charts and graphs were interpreted, regardless of how many confirmations I had.

To me, that is simply tea leaf investing. While it can be successful, it does require a portfolio to contain equities, bonds, and cash. Then, depending on what the tea leaves detail, the portfolio is simply over or under weighted in those three investments. I would think that trading fees, while small, would have a tendency to push portfolio costs up, but I have no idea how much that would impact such an investing strategy.

There are two reasons why I would never debate one investing strategy over. The first one is because I don’t know what all the investing strategies are. The second reason is because I’m not interested in other investing strategies. If they are working for you, stay with them and best of luck.

Have you ever heard the term opportunity cost, or standard deviation? Do you know what they mean? Do you know how to determine them? Do you know how and when to use them? When 1825 day (5 year) time periods are factored in to these terms, do you know how they are impacted?

Now consider that five years ago when the markets were headed into the crapper at warp speed, you had bought a company that you actually knew like 3M (NYSE: MMM). Had you bought the stock at the close on 09/20/2012 you would have paid $72.68. The stock closed yesterday at $120.01, an approximate 65% gain.

Same thing with Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM). Had you bought it five years ago you would have paid $79.61. It closed yesterday at $88.66, an increase of 11%. Similarly had you bought McDonald’s(NYSE: MCD) five years ago, you would have paid $63.98. It closed yesterday at $96.90, an increase of 52%.

Trying to simply keep up with inflation? Let’s see, the individual 5-year average dividend yield for 3M is 2.70%, while for Exxon it’s 2.30%, and for McDonalds it’s 3.20% making the average 5-year dividend yield for these three stocks 2.73%. The five-year average inflation rate is approximately 2.50%.

My point here is that you know what you want an investment to do for you and as I have shown, one way to make that happen is to invest in a very small basket of companies that you know, whose products you may even use, and to hold those companies at least 1825 (5 years) days. As the matter of fact, if you’re really smart, you will simply forget that you own them at all.

Hi. My name is Wax, and I am an individual, working class, investor just trying to do the best I can in a world that was never intended for investors like me.

Throughout the course of the week, I post a Daily Alert, which is my review of an individual equity. It is intended to help the reader decide if that particular equity is worth their time to research.

The other thing I do, is let the world watch as I manage the The Wax Ink Portfolio.

Perhaps watching me make the mistakes I make will help other working class investors avoid the investing pitfalls that seem to find me.

Enjoy your weekend

Wax

Markets
The Wax Ink Portfolio was up 1.1% for the week. By comparison, the Dow was up 0.5%, the Nasdaq was up 1.4%, the S&P 500 was up 1.3%, the Russell 2000 was up 1.9%, and the Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, was down 1.0%.

Year to date, the Wax Ink portfolio is up 23.9%, the Dow is up 17.9%, the Nasdaq is up 25%, the S&P 500 is up 19.9%, the Russell 2000 is up 26.4%, and the VIX is down 13.9%.

Breakdown
The Wax Ink Portfolio breakdown remains unchanged with roughly 70% of the portfolio in equities, 30% of the portfolio in cash, and 0% of the portfolio in bonds.

Research
I finished baseline equity reviews on the following companies during the course of the week. My rating follows the ticker symbol.

Edwards Lifesciences Corporation (NYSE: EW) – Negative Investment Interest

FMC Corporation (NYSE: FMC) – Negative Investment Interest

Entropic Communications (Nasdaq: ENTR) – Positive Investment Interest

Euronet Worldwide (Nasdaq: EEFT) – Negative Investment Interest

FMC Technologies (NYSE: FTI) – Negative Investment Interest

Holdings
This week's moving on up stocks were airplane repair company AAR Corporation (NYSE: AIR), up 10%, basic materials company L.B. Foster (Nasdaq: FSTR), up 5%, and specialty chemical company W.R. Grace (NYSE: GRA) was up 3%.

This week's floaters in the bunch bowl were trucker Arkansas Best (Nasdaq: ABFS), down 4%, pill maker Cubist Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: CBST), down 3%, and semiconductor maker International Rectifier (NYSE: IRF), down 1%.

Not Performing
The top portfolio choke and puke stocks remain communications equipment company Tellabs, down 56% since being added to the portfolio, garage door and telephone headset maker Griffon Corporation, down 32% since being added to the portfolio, and iron ore company Cliffs Natural Resources, down 35% since being added to the portfolio.

Copyright © 2013 Wax Ink

Wax Ink is a baseline equity research company not licensed or registered with any government agency  [more]

Recs

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FMC Technologies - Value Alert

September 20, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: FTI

Texas (September 20, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a Negative Investment Interest opinion for FMC Technologies (NYSE: FTI) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $31-$38.  [more]

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Euronet Worldwide - Value Alert

September 18, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: EEFT

Texas (September 18, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a Negative Investment Interest opinion for Euronet Worldwide (Nasdaq: EEFT) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $27-$33.  [more]

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Entropic Communications - Value Alert

September 17, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: ENTR

Texas (September 17, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a Positive Investment Interest opinion for Entropic Communications (Nasdaq: ENTR) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $16-$18.  [more]

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FMC Corporation - Value Alert

September 16, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: FMC

Texas (September 16, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a Negative Investment Interest opinion for FMC Corporation (NYSE: FMC) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $45-$53.

The recent close of $70.17 is approximately 162% above the fair value buy target for the stock and approximately 28% above the fair value close target for the stock. The recent close is also 2% below analysts’ twelve-month $71.50 median price target for the stock.

The recent close represents a 20% increase in the one year price of the stock, while year-over-year sales decreased 11%, year-over-year earnings increased 16%, and year-over-year debt increased 25%.

The stock currently has a trailing twelve-month PE Ratio of 16, and a PEG Ratio of 1.2 basis estimated forward earnings growth of 13.5%.

In the past 52 weeks, share prices have moved between a high of $70.80 and a low of $50.76, placing equilibrium at $63.28.

With the recent close, the stock is trading 1% below the 52 week high, 28% above the 52 week low, and 10% above equilibrium.

The three-month average daily trading volume for the stock is approximately 792,000 shares.

FMC Corporation is a diversified chemical company, provides solutions and products for agricultural, consumer, and industrial markets.

The company's listed competitors include Asahi Glass Co., Ltd., The Dow Chemical Company,and E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company.

Financial information that may be contained herein, is based on the company's most recent annual SEC filing for year ending December 31, 2012.

All prices are per share unless otherwise noted.

Wax Ink currently has no investment position in any company mentioned in this alert.

For use by Accredited Investors as defined under Title 17, CFR §230.500, Regulation D.

Copyright © 2013 Wax Ink

Wax Ink is a baseline equity research company not licensed or registered with any government agency  [more]

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Edwards Lifesciences - Value Alert

September 15, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: EW

Texas (September 15, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a Negative Investment Interest opinion for Edwards Lifesciences Corporation (NYSE: EW) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $44-$53.

The recent close of $71.61 is approximately 169% above the fair value buy target for the stock and approximately 31% above the fair value close target for the stock. The recent close is also 6% below analysts’ twelve-month $76.00 median price target for the stock.

The recent close represents an 32% decrease in the one year price of the stock, while year-over-year sales decreased 13%, year-over-year earnings increased 19%, and year-over-year debt increased 27%.

The stock currently has a trailing twelve-month PE Ratio of 23, and a PEG Ratio of 1.4 basis estimated forward earnings growth of 17%.

In the past 52 weeks, share prices have moved between a high of $110.79 and a low of $62.34, placing equilibrium at $74.29.

With the recent close, the stock is trading 55% below the 52 week high, 13% above the 52 week low, and 4% below equilibrium.

The three-month average daily trading volume for the stock is approximately 962,000 shares.

Edwards Lifesciences Corporation provides management consulting, science, engineering, technical, and information technology (IT) services and solutions.

The company's listed competitors include ICU Medical, Medtronic,and St. Jude Medical.

Financial information that may be contained herein, is based on the company's most recent annual SEC filing for year ending December 31, 2012.

All prices are per share unless otherwise noted.

Wax Ink currently has no investment position in any company mentioned in this alert.

For use by Accredited Investors as defined under Title 17, CFR §230.500, Regulation D.

Copyright © 2013 Wax Ink

Wax Ink is a baseline equity research company not licensed or registered with any government agency  [more]

Recs

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performance - Week Ending 09/13/2013

September 14, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: HFC , DORM , WOR

I mentioned last week that economic numbers are subject to change. I provided some examples of just how dramatic some of those changes can be, and I noted the markets took a minute, then took a leak, and then went on with the business of greed.

In the week ahead, the Federal Open Market Committee, the FOMC, will meet to decide if interest rates should stay the same, as well as to decide what is going to happen to the money supply. Of course the markets are really only interest in the money supply as it relates to the dreaded taper.

Here’s the deal. The Fed can control the money supply by buying and selling government securities. If they want to decrease the money supply the Fed will sell, and if they want to increase the money supply, they will buy. For one helluva long time the Fed has been buying.

Last week I also talked about payroll numbers and the downward revision that came out for the prior month. To my view that was a big deal because it indicated to me that the underlying economy was still sputtering at best.

The Fed is now between a rock and hard place. They are very aware of the downward revision in the payroll numbers, just as they are very aware of labor force participation rate, which has now reached it’s lowest level in 33 years.

But they are also aware that they need to put a positive foot forward to show the rest of the world that the United States economy is resilient and strong. Something I think is utter underwear slime.

Regardless, I think the “taper” is upon us, so I personally am looking for the markets to hand individual investors a hot cherry bend over next week, which is a more mtactful way of saying individual investors are about to take it up the old wahzoo…again.

Where’s Mr. Whipple and his role of Charmin when you need him? But that’s what happens to individual investors, we take it in the shorts every time the economic winds change direction.

For those individual investors that subscribe to The Clean End Only, which is any macro economic based investing newsletter, expect to read the words “sell signal” and “confirmed” quite a bit.

And if you follow the advise provided in those newsletters, expect to watch the value of your portfolio fall like a loaf from a tall horse during a long a parade.

Is that what is going to happen? I have no idea. And as I have said on these pages many, many times, I really don’t care.

Hi. My name is Wax, and I am an individual investor, a working class investor, just trying to do the best I can in a world that was never intended for investors like me.

Throughout the course of the week, I post a Daily Alert, which is my review of an individual equity. It is intended to help the reader decide if that particular equity is worth their time to research.

The other thing I do, is let the world watch as I manage the The Wax Ink Portfolio.

Perhaps watching me make the mistakes I make will help other working class investors avoid the investing pitfalls that seem to find me.

Enjoy your weekend

Wax



Markets
The Wax Ink Portfolio was up 2.6% for the week. By comparison, the Dow was up 3.0%, the Nasdaq was up 1.7%, the S&P 500 was up 2.0%, the Russell 2000 was up 2.4%, and the Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, was down 10.7%.

Year to date, the Wax Ink portfolio is up 22.5%, the Dow is up 17.3%, the Nasdaq is up 23.3%, the S&P 500 is up 18.3%, the Russell 2000 is up 24.1%, and the VIX is down 7.1%.

Breakdown
The Wax Ink Portfolio breakdown remains unchanged with roughly 70% of the portfolio in equities, 30% of the portfolio in cash, and 0% of the portfolio in bonds.

Research
I finished baseline equity reviews on the following companies during the course of the week. My rating follows the ticker symbol.

Cubic Corporation. (NYSE: CUB) – No Investment Interest

CTS Corporation (NYSE: CTS) – Positive Investment Interest

DeVry, Inc. (NYSE: DV) – No Investment Interest

Dynamics Research Corporation (Nasdaq: DRCO) – Negative Investment Interest

Holdings
This week's moving on up stocks were small tools maker The L.S. Starrett Company (NYSE: SCX), up 8%, technical services company SAIC, Inc. (NYSE: SAI), up 7%, and government technical contractor URS Corporation (NYSE: URS) was up 6%.

This week's floaters in the bunch bowl were oil refiner Holly Frontier Corporation (NYSE: HFC), down 4%, after-market auto parts maker Dorman Products Company, Inc. (Nasdaq: DORM), down 0.5%, and cylinder maker Worthington Industries, Inc. (NYSE: wor), down 0.5%.

Not Performing
The top portfolio choke and puke stocks remain communications equipment company Tellabs, down 56% since being added to the portfolio, garage door and telephone headset maker Griffon Corporation, down 34% since being added to the portfolio, and iron ore company Cliffs Natural Resources, down 55% since being added to the portfolio.

Copyright © 2013 Wax Ink

Wax Ink is a baseline equity research company not licensed or registered with any government agency  [more]

Recs

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Dynamics Research - Value Alert

September 13, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: DRCO

Texas (September 13, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a Positive Investment Interest opinion for Dynamics Research Corporation (Nasdaq: DRCO) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $21-$29.  [more]

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DeVry, Inc. - Value Alert

September 12, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: DV

Texas (September 12, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a No Investment Interest opinion for DeVry, Inc. (NYSE DV) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $39-$44.  [more]

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CTS Corporation - Value Alert

September 11, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: CTS

Texas (September 11, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a Positive Investment Interest opinion for CTS Corporation (NYSE: CTS) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $28-$32.  [more]

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Covenant Transportation Group - Value Alert

September 09, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: CVTI

Texas (September 9, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a Positive Investment Interest opinion for Covenant Transportation Group (Nasdaq CVTI) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $39-$46.  [more]

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Cubic Corporation - Value Alert

September 08, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: CUB

Texas (September 8, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a No Investment Interest opinion for Cubic Corporation (NYSE: CUB) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $58-$65.  [more]

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Performance - 09/06/2013

September 07, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: SWM , TLAB , CLF

Almost every business day there is some sort of scheduled economics announcement. Before these actually occur, analysts from all of the major Wall Street firms, as well as from all of the major banks, come out with their various predictions. None of these predictions is ever correct, yet investors seem to hang on every utterance.  [more]

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Century Aluminum - Value Alert

September 06, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: CENX

Texas (September 6, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a Positive Investment Interest opinion for Century Aluminum Company (Nasdaq: CENX) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $21-$23.  [more]

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Celadon Group, Inc. - Value Alert

September 05, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: CGI

Texas (September 5, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a Positive Investment Interest opinion for Celadon Group, Inc. (NYSE: CGI) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $32-$41.  [more]

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Chicago Bridge and Iron - Value Alert

September 04, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: CBI

Texas (September 4, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a Negative Investment Interest opinion for Chicago Bridge and Iron Company N.V. (NYSE: CBI) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $41-$49.  [more]

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C.R. Bard, Inc. - Value Alert

September 03, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: BCR

Texas (September 3, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a Negative Investment Interest opinion for C. R. Bard, Inc. (NYSE: BCR) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $59-$71.  [more]

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C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. - Value Alert

September 02, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: CHRW

Texas (September 2, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a Negative Investment Interest opinion for C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (Nasdaq: CHRW) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $38-$45.  [more]

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Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. - Value Alert

September 01, 2013 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: BWLD

Texas (September 1, 2013) Wax Ink has issued a Negative Investment Interest opinion for Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. (Nasdaq: BWLD) based on a recent baseline equity review which placed fair value between $52-$63.  [more]

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