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kirkydu (93.72)

August 2008

Recs

3

Wow, Russia and the U.S. are arguing. Go figure.

August 22, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: RJA , SKF , TWM

The Russia and U.S. thing with Georgia and Iran as the pawns isn't really the topic I'm going to address here, if you want to learn about that head over to Stratfor and George Friedman who has helped me miss a lot of international pain and make money without ever offering financial advice.  What I came here to say is "here comes the pain."  Oh, you thought the last year was painful.  Ha, get ready for all that and a bag of chips in the next FOUR MONTHS.  If we get a rally, well, consider it a gift to escape what's coming.  We are about to get CAPITULATION baby!  Just in time for my trip to Vegas.    [more]

Recs

4

Well, I'm up late doing research on a Friday...

August 02, 2008 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: GOOGL , XOM , C

...so I thought I'd post and be a little more informative than I usually am.  I've been studying some charts and history, and applying some very serious screens to the valuations of the overall market.  Right now we have a forward P/E on the S&P 500 of around 18.  That's mainly because of lowered profit projections.  These profit projections aren't particularly low, merely historically average, give or take.  So, there is little reason to expect a sustained rally until P/E gets to about 15 (or less likely given the tight credit markets that are likely to persist for another couple years).  In short since I'm tired, it's pretty apparent that we are in for at least another 15% or so on the downside from here, possibly another 30%.  Not sure how we'll get there, I suspect a little mini-rally at some point then a wicked downturn.  Not sure when it'll happen, though I suspect soon, within 5 quarters.  So, I won't be taking off my shorts as soon as I had thought just a few weeks ago (and if we get a rally, I'll find every ultrashort etf I can and put it in the CAPs portfolio to offset my watchlist stocks).  [more]

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