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January 2010

Recs

15

A Trip Around the Globe III: A Look at a Few International Indices

January 31, 2010 – Comments (5)

I see London I see France .... :)

Here are a Few Charts, Globetrotter Style!

Original - A Trip Around the Globe: A Look at a Few International Indices - Dec 10, 2009
Second Trip - A Trip Around the Globe II: A Look at a Few International Indices - Jan 18, 2010  [more]

Recs

21

This is Officer 1BDI, Requesting Backup.

January 30, 2010 – Comments (12)

.... We'll be there in 5 minutes.

And you know what else needs some backup? Yep, you guessed it, the old Baltic Dry Index (BDI). My last post on the BDI was back in October (If the BDI is a Leading Indicator ...). It turns out it needed to make one more high, and in doing so went up to the 38% retrace line and a large resistance zone and turned sharply back down.  [more]

Recs

12

Domo Arigato, Mr. Divergence-o / Two Definitive Channel Breaks on the E-Mini

January 28, 2010 – Comments (2)

First part of this post was a post I wrote on my other blog real-time at 1:46 today: Domo Arigato, Mr. Divergence-o

Like in my last post Malt-O-Meal, I have been debating whether we are in Minute 5 or Minuette 5 (i.e. do we have one more leg down or are we ready to start Minor 2 up?)

The fact that we got the lowest move of the wave today makes me happy for 2 reasons. 1) I didn't get shaken out of the up and down BS the last few days and 2) It gives some more clarity to the *possible* counts.

Before I show you my preferred count, let me say that *none* of the options are a slam dunk at this point. But TA and EW is about evaluating risk/reward setups, it is about playing the odds. I have been reducing my short position as this wave down had moved on because the nice clean impulsive moves down were done. We were in the churn. And I don't like holding through churn if it is near the end of the wave anyways. Too many fakeouts and false starts. So while there could be another move lower, do you think the risk is at this point (from a short term perspective) to the upside or downside? I say upside, but you may answer differently based on your convictions.  [more]

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22

Looks Like Hibernation Time Is Over / The Real Deal? (Divided Opinions)

January 24, 2010 – Comments (6)

Wow ... That's really all I can say.

I mean I am a gun-shy bear too. I have had my .... avocados ... in a vice trying to guess some bearish setups in this bull run. So even I thought that the opening salvo would not be quite so dramatic (hence my leading diagonal post earlier today L(S)D Option).

So even a bear like binv (and I am one of the more bearish bears you will find) was surprised by the strength of the move down today. Things looked to be consolidating this morning into the end of a bullish falling wedge: momentum was slowing, bearish breadth was declining, sitting right on top of a support zone at 1105-1100.

But then we exploded down. And all I can say is ... Wow. But despite being shocked, there is a smile on my face.

Perhaps the market might start to make sense again? ... Nahhh, now I am just talking gibberish.  [more]

Recs

15

ContraryInvestor: Of Mountains And Molehills

January 22, 2010 – Comments (3)

This is a very good take on the "cash on the sidelines" argument that is often stated to support a continued equity rally. (i.e. it dispels the myth). The rally since March was not caused by retail investors or their managers and the retail investor does not have the means to sustain it. It is a macroeconmic "splash-back" as the real (or fake as the case may be) money moves through the system. And I doubt it finds the broad US economy a compelling long term investment at these prices.  [more]

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26

What To Look For As a Long Term Trend Change Confirmation

January 21, 2010 – Comments (19)

What is the purpose of this post?

First, let me say what it is not: The purpose is *not* to call the top here from a long term investor perspective.

Let me explain where I am coming from. I have several investment accounts each with a different purpose / risk tolerance / timeframe:  [more]

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26

Explain To Me ....

January 20, 2010 – Comments (14)

Explain to me why someone who, based on the title of their post, is looking for a justification to an argument would be so belligerent in asking the question?  [more]

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10

John Hussman: Inflation Myth and Reality

January 19, 2010 – Comments (0)

John Hussman of www.hussmanfunds.com puts out a Weekly Market Comment (which I highly encourage you to read every week). This one is particularly good. It very much goes with what I have been saying in many of my posts, including quite comprehensively in this post: The Dow / Gold Ratio - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=327553. The fact that simplistic anlaysis of the form "inflation causes stocks to go up" is not strictly true all the time, which is equivilant to it being wrong. There is *never* only one cause and one effect in economics, and stocks can fall within an inflationary environment. Inflation Expectations and Stock Valuations within the inflation cycle make a huge difference as to whether the next phase continues stock growth. Moreover, commodites and stocks are positively correlated ... until they are not. All correlations are transient and subject to macroeconomic influences and expectations. And anyone who thinks the macroeconomic picture is the same now as it was back in March needs to do some more reading and thinking.  [more]

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11

A Trip Around the Globe II: A Look at a Few International Indices

January 18, 2010 – Comments (4)

I see London I see France .... :)

Here are a Few Charts, Globetrotter Style!

This is an updated version of the post A Trip Around the Globe: A Look at a Few International Indices - Dec 10, 2009

Recs

10

Analysis Update: ATPG and AMX

January 17, 2010 – Comments (2)

Back in Mid December on my Caps blog, SolarisKing asked me to do a chart analysis on ATPG: (A Request to Blog Readers - Dec 12, 2009, comments 1 and 2):  [more]

Recs

13

Jesse: Wall Street Thinks You Are a Jealous Little Malcontent

January 15, 2010 – Comments (2)

This is a fantastic rant by Jesse. Not only because it is topical and I agree with much of the rhetoric, but it digs into another part of the problem: The types of people that financial institutions attract. Now before you jump down my throat, I am NOT implying that everybody who works for a financial firms is bad / evil / corrupt. But I think the upper echelon of many financial firms have exactly the personality that Jesse describes in this post. His description of the amoral pathological personality he had to deal with is very similar to a personal story of my own. Tasty and I were discussing this very personality type on some post a few weeks ago (I can't remember which). And when I hear the "We are doing God's Work" type statements and the other justification for the exorbitant bonuses that these failing firms are making with Taxpayer money ... it gets under my skin.  [more]

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16

Toilet Bowl Battles

January 15, 2010 – Comments (11)

Well, this market has been like the terd (the profanity filter doesn't like t u r d?) that won't flush. Just just keeps hanging around in the bowl. But after while it just starts to break down on its own ... uhhh am I getting to graphic? :) Just continuing my humor (such as it is) from yesterday: May Be Seeing Some Movement / Some More Scatological Humor  [more]

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25

The Dow / Gold Ratio

January 14, 2010 – Comments (7)

I have a series of posts going regarding important Gold ratios. This is the fourth installment.

1. Gold Miner Performance: A Look Miner Cost Inputs vs. Gold Price - Dec 30, 2009
2. Gold Miner Performance Relative to Gold - Jan 11, 2010
3. The Gold / Silver Ratio - Jan 12, 2010
4. This post - the DGR
5. Other Gold Ratios - forthcoming. I have written several posts on these that I will update.

The Dow / Gold Ratio (DGR) is another key ratio that describes the market behavior in real terms. This ratio is not as much of a "perception" ratio the way the Gold/Silver Ratio or the HUI/Gold ratio is. Rather it is a "value" ratio.  [more]

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29

The Gold / Silver Ratio

January 12, 2010 – Comments (22)

I have a series of posts going regarding important Gold ratios. This is the third installment.

1. Gold Miner Performance: A Look Miner Cost Inputs vs. Gold Price - Dec 30, 2009
2. Gold Miner Performance Relative to Gold - Jan 11, 2010
3. This Post - The GSR
4. The Dow/Gold Ratio - forthcoming. I have written several posts on the DGR in the past, I will update those based on recent developments
5. Other Gold Ratios - forthcoming. Again, I have written several posts on these that I will update.

The Gold / Silver Ratio (GSR) is another key ratio that describes larger market trends and perceptions, much like I showed with the HUI/Gold ratio in my last post. So lets first start off with a long term chart of the GSR.  [more]

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26

Gold Miner Performance Relative to Gold

January 10, 2010 – Comments (9)

My last post looked at Gold Miner Performance: A Look Miner Cost Inputs vs. Gold Price. In this post I want to look at the performance of Gold Miners (GSMs = Gold/Silver Miners) relative to Gold.  [more]

Recs

21

O Mandelbrot, O Mandelbrot

January 10, 2010 – Comments (8)

O Mandelbrot, O Mandelbrot
Your fractals are so pleasing
La la la laaaa la la la ......

Uncle binv is going to tell you a story about fractals! (mild / forced applause from the audience). This post draws heavily upon the **fantastic** post that columbia wrote in October - Fractals!!. Please read that post first.  [more]

Recs

20

Gold Miner Performance: A Look Miner Cost Inputs vs. Gold Price

January 07, 2010 – Comments (10)

I put this post up during the week after Christmas, and it didn't get much reception. That could either be because 1) poor timing since most everybody was out (maybe) or 2) it is considered to be of little value and was commensurately ignored (much more likely).

Here it is again on the off chance it is reason 1.  [more]

Recs

28

Financial Carcinoma -- Denninger: Did You Need a PhD For That?

January 06, 2010 – Comments (1)

Like I have said most recently here (Financially My Dear I Don't Give a XLF), I am very bearish on finanicals, calling them the cancer of the economy  [more]

Recs

11

An Analysis Request: IYR

January 06, 2010 – Comments (1)

My last post (Financially My Dear I Don't Give a XLF which I also posted on my Caps blog: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=322104) generated the same request from two different people (streetflame on Caps, and Gumbo on MTaA): To do an analysis of IYR.  [more]

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16

Financially My Dear I Don't Give a XLF

January 05, 2010 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: XLF

LOL! Holy Bad Puns Batman! Even I admit that was too far of a twist on the classic quote. But bad puns are about the only thing rattling around in binv's brain, so cut me some slack! :)  [more]

Recs

38

Is the Market Fairly Valued? Did the Market Achieve Any Meaningful Bottom Back in March?

January 03, 2010 – Comments (35)

This is a follow-up post to my last large Fundamental Analysis post The Long View. I explored many topics including valuations in that post. I would like to talk about valuations in a little more detail here.  [more]

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