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January 2011



One of the coolest things I have ever seen

January 31, 2011 – Comments (12)

This is not related to investing, macroeconomics, currencies, etc. But I just saw this and had to share it. It is awesome!  [more]



Why discussions about complex subjects (like Macroeconomics) are useful for everybody

January 30, 2011 – Comments (19)

Just a quick thought inspired by a comment.  [more]



QE is not Inflationary, Thoughts on Risk Asset Instability

January 29, 2011 – Comments (32)

"QE is not inflationary". What are you smoking binv? Everything in the US from stocks, to oil, to junk bonds, to toilet paper is going up, so that must mean Quantitative Easing is inflationary ... right?  [more]



Intermediate Term Bullish, Still waiting for the Secular Bear to Complete (Long Term Bearish), But Very Long Term Very Very Bullish

January 21, 2011 – Comments (3)

I wrote a post recently (Macro Thoughts and Observations. Is the Bear Market Dead? Is this the Start of a new Secular Bull Market?) where I gave a macro outlook and a projection that I think is more realistic than my previous uber-bearish stance. I think that evidence continues to come in that most developed economies are improving, and that the outlook for the next couple of years is not dire.  [more]



Macro Thoughts and Observations. Is the Bear Market Dead? Is this the Start of a new Secular Bull Market?

January 17, 2011 – Comments (14)

Lots of thoughts. Some (if not most) are guaranteed to be wrong. But like all of my posts like this, they are thought experiments. A way for me to write down these thoughts so I can get them out of my head and examine them more objectively. Please take a look and comment if you have opinions you would like to contribute.  [more]



The FED knew about the impending housing bust

January 14, 2011 – Comments (5)

Excellent post by Pragcap. Right now everybody is in love with the Fed because of the psychological impact that QE2 is having on the market. But the FED knows how destructive these policies are (they know that the risks increase far more than the benefits => benefits are temporary). Not only from empirical evidence, but also by internal analysis and discussions on the topic.  [more]



Time to sell Intel? (and buy in a year or two)?

January 14, 2011 – Comments (13) | RELATED TICKERS: INTC

Not an iota of Fundamental Analysis on this one. But I was looking at Intel's chart and just seeing how much of a boring trading range it stayed in the last several years. But then I zoomed out to 12 years and saw some interesting relationships.

It has clear support levels at 15 and 12. And it has clear resistance around 22, but more importantly it is following a downsloping trendline established over the last several years.

So, sell INTC now? Wait a year or so until it gets to 15 and buy it again?

Not flashy. But that's sort of the appeal right? A nice reliable chip manufacturer, putting out excellent reliable chips, but not being all hyped up and flashy like other tech companies everyone seems to be ga-ga for these days (cough AAPL, cough GOOG), and putting out an excellent reliable cyclical stock movement.

I might try this one out.

ENLARGE  [more]



ATPG, part V

January 11, 2011 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: ATPAQ.DL

This is my fifth look at ATPG. Here are my previous posts:  [more]



Hussman: Illusory Prosperity - Ludwig von Mises on Monetary Policy

January 09, 2011 – Comments (10)

Excellent post by John Hussman, the whole thing is worth a read. This excerpt is especially right on.  [more]



Troubles with the Profit Forecasts

January 05, 2011 – Comments (6)

Thoughts from David Rosenberg regarding S&P earnings for 2011. From  [more]




January 04, 2011 – Comments (15)

Here are some observations that point to some elevated risk here  [more]

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