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February 2011

Recs

19

Inflation V Deflation – Which Door Do You Pick?

February 28, 2011 – Comments (13)

Another excellent post from Credit Writedowns. There are certainly strong opinions on both sides. I think the answer, as is the case with most economic debates, will lie somewhere in the middle.

Here are some of my thoughts on the matter:  [more]

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5

Video: Rosenberg bullish on energy stocks, cautious on growth due to oil shock

February 28, 2011 – Comments (13)

Don't know if this was already posted, but this is an excellent interview with David Rosenberg.  [more]

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16

Oil is not a monolithic commodity

February 25, 2011 – Comments (6)

Most people (and I include myself) tend to lump things in generalities. But as Floridabuilder would say: "It pays to make a few distinctions". Everybody knows that the housing market is 'doomed' (yes I am being tongue in cheek), yet there are smart Chimps who can navigate desirable submarkets, and knows how to value builders who can do the same. Same with zzlangerhans. If anybody can look through a pile of biotechs and pharmas and separate the wheat from the chaff, he can.  [more]

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14

Buyers Lever up on Margin as Short Sellers Disappear

February 25, 2011 – Comments (5)

Very interesting observations by The Pragmatic Capitalist.

Like I was saying in my last post Soc Gen’s Economic Surprise Indicator, I don't think this indicative of 'the top'. I think we are still in the middle of this cyclical bull.  [more]

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4

Soc Gen’s Economic Surprise Indicator

February 25, 2011 – Comments (0)

This is a very interesting study. I have talked about bullish sentiment surveys in the past, and by themselves will not help to determine a market top. From http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/macro-thoughts-and/524129:  [more]

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10

This is awesome

February 23, 2011 – Comments (0)

Shamelessy ripped off from Barry Ritholtz, but I had to repost. It is great: While My Ukulele Weeps by Jake Shimabukuro  [more]

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20

The Deflationary Shock

February 22, 2011 – Comments (23)

The Pragmatic Capitalist has a very good comment on David Rosenberg's market letter this morning. I agree with practically everything in this post.  [more]

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8

Consumer Confidence Index: Now at a 3-Year High

February 22, 2011 – Comments (4)

This is a very interesting development. Recent consumer confidence is on an uptrend and has been rising for awhile. However, it is still low historically speaking. Doug Short as always keeps excellent track of economic funamentals, valuation, and sentiment.  [more]

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26

2800 vs. 500 (I heart efficiency!)

February 19, 2011 – Comments (21)

Yep, we certainly have efficient markets. All this information abounds and we are iterating on the 'correct' price for the markets (you know, within 500% or so).  [more]

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10

The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index sends a warning

February 15, 2011 – Comments (1)

Timely post by The Pragmatic Capitalist. This is essentially a study of analyst expectations vs. actual earnings. And right now we are at historically high levels that have typically accompanied corrections.  [more]

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13

Lessons (To Be) Learned... again.

February 14, 2011 – Comments (0)

I posted this on my other blog (here) last week. I don't know if you will be interested, but here it is anyways.  [more]

Recs

26

Unloved

February 11, 2011 – Comments (24)

Like I have said so many times before, I like talking about Gold when it is unloved, not when it is a momentum toy and everyone is talking about it. Like I wrote in my last post: Gold.  [more]

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10

Germany Confidence Rising – Keine Gehäuse Bubble

February 07, 2011 – Comments (14)

Very interesting observation by Global Macro Monitor. From here: http://macromon.wordpress.com/2011/02/07/germany-rising-keine-gehause-bubble/. I had read previously that the housing bubble really never affected Germany, but I had never seen a chart depicting how true that was, especially in comparison to other Eurozone countries.  [more]

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14

Follow Up: QE is not Inflationary, Thoughts on Risk Asset Instability

February 02, 2011 – Comments (13)

This is a Follow up to my last post QE is not Inflationary, Thoughts on Risk Asset Instability - http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/01/qe-is-not-inflationary-thoughts-on-risk.html / http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/qe-is-not-inflationary/531743. I received a lot of good comments that allowed me to make clarifications to my argument. I would like to consolidate those clarifications and add a bit more to my observations. This will be a more complete post than my last one, and I think will be a useful exercise.  [more]

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