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March 2010

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26

Elizabeth Warren: Half of Commercial Mortgages to Be Underwater

March 30, 2010 – Comments (7)

I am a *huge fan* of Elizabeth Warren. She is one of the few people not trying to sugar coat this mess and do a lot of hand waving. We need more people that speak truth to power, and to provide honest assessments.  [more]

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16

Another Impulse Wave Study: A Look at the 1974-1975 Low and Rally

March 28, 2010 – Comments (0)

My last post (Not All Five-Wave Moves Are Impulses: A Short Treatise on Elliott Wave) was looking at the rally since March 2009 through the lens of "Is this an impulse wave?". Specifically, we are observing a five wave move, but per my argument, a five wave move is not sufficient to define an impulse. The key is acceleration of the third wave. It must display more strength and dynamics that the first wave.

My friend Anchak asked me to look at the 1974/1975 bottom. This is a very good idea. This was the most recent secular bull market to emerge from a several year bear market, which makes for a very relevant comparison point.  [more]

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16

Eric Sprott Interview on King World News

March 27, 2010 – Comments (4)

This is a great interview with the great investor / hedge fund manager Eric Sprott. It is worth your time.  [more]

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21

IMF Is Now Rejecting Prospective Buyers For Its Gold Stash

March 26, 2010 – Comments (5)

This is a *very* interesting development!!  [more]

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16

MO Rocca

March 26, 2010 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: MO , ROC

Mo Rocca is funny. Mo Rocca, in fact rocks. But MO really Rock-a's .... eeeeeaaahhhhhhh (groaning crowd at the bad pun).  [more]

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30

Whistleblower Exposes JP Morgan's Silver Manipulation Scheme

March 26, 2010 – Comments (12)

More BS that most of us are already aware of  [more]

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29

Bearish? Hell Yeah! ... But Is This The "Top"?

March 25, 2010 – Comments (15)

First things first. I am still bearish, very bearish. I am still very short (painfully so and deep in the red) from the shorts I established in mid-February. But before we get to the big picture, lets talk about the near term (next couple of weeks)  [more]

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23

Yet Another Reason Why I am Fundamentally Bullish on Gold

March 24, 2010 – Comments (5)

A *very* nice chart from Jesse at Jesse's Café Américain. This is yet another reason why I am fundamentally bullish on gold. All pullbacks are gifts, and gives a favorable exchange rate of FRNs to real money.  [more]

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40

Bull Math?

March 24, 2010 – Comments (16)

When thinking about being bullish or bearish, consider this equation:

Bull equation: Add positive news and subtract negative news. But negative news has a minus sign. So subtracting a negative is a positive!! = *everything* is bullish!!

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15

Is Never Good For You?

March 24, 2010 – Comments (0)

Bernanke: So when should we start tightening rates?
Yellen: How about Never? Is Never Good For You?
Bernanke: Yep, I think never works.

Yep, that's responsibility. Keeping an easy money policy in place to solve a crisis that was formed by an easy money policy.... nice.  [more]

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14

Thoughts on the Euro, the Dollar, and a Long Term EUR/USD Count

March 23, 2010 – Comments (7)

Protechtor has a very nice long term EUR/USD count here: EUR/USD Longer Term View going back to 2007/2008. It prompted me to go back and review my long term EUR/USD count.

It is not secret that I am bearish on the US Dollar, both fundamentally and technically. For my fundamental picture, see here: Thoughts on the US Dollar, Analysis of the USDX Long Term, Follow up on the Gold Blog and actually I wrote a post on my other blog today that discussed this topic in more detail (inflationary policies by the Fed, debt saturation, why stocks will fall in an inflationary environment / stagflation): Debt Saturation

And there is another big reason why I am bearish on the Dollar long term: the EUR/USD count.   [more]

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37

Debt Saturation

March 22, 2010 – Comments (15)

I and many others have been discussing this very topic for awhile. My contention has been that while the first round of Quantiative Easing was engineered to prop up all kinds of asset classes, most notably the housing market (in that case to slow the free fall) and the stock market. QE-I is about to run out (the Fed MBS purchase program ends this month). And I have stated before that there will be a Quanitative Easing Two / QE-II [a.k.a. big bertha], only this time instead of propping up failing assets, the aim of QE-II will be soley to keep the governement running.  [more]

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26

It wasn't us: Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke still do not believe monetary policy bears any blame for the crisis

March 21, 2010 – Comments (3)

Nothing really new in this article. Saying what many of us have been pointing out for a long time. But it still makes me very angry.  [more]

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25

What the Bond Market is Trying to Tell the Stock Market: A Look at the Yield Curve and Expectations

March 19, 2010 – Comments (0)

A lot of people have their pet theories on what a steepening yield curve means for both economic growth and the response by the stock market. I am no different, I too have my own pet theories. So lets dive in.  [more]

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32

Putting my last post into perspective: Bears and Idiots

March 17, 2010 – Comments (11)

Here is my last post Idiot of the Day: bears. So the title is obviously a play off of zloj’s “Idiot of the day" series. But I want to discuss a few different aspects/intentions of my very simple post.  [more]

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30

Idiot of the Day: bears

March 17, 2010 – Comments (11)

Especially that guy binve. Man, he is a moron.

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17

Smokescreen? - Absolutely Absurd

March 16, 2010 – Comments (11)

I have been discussing Credit Default Swaps recently, and in particular here, Bravo, Chairman Gensler! - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=353738 where Gary Gensler is proposing needed changes in the CDS market, but how on the flip side the Fed is undermining any risk mitigation efforts: PSW: The Fed / CDS Development.  [more]

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16

Repo 105 - Very Funny

March 15, 2010 – Comments (4)

Many of us have been discussing the Repo 105 scandal recently (for details see: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=352908).

But Macro Man has a hilarious take on it today :)  [more]

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18

Bravo, Chairman Gensler!

March 14, 2010 – Comments (3)

Kristjan Velbri at Economic Reality has a great piece on Chairman Gary Gensler of the CFTC proposing changes to help get to the root of the problem in the Credit Default Swap Market. This is a very positive development!. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is undermining this effort by encouraging more risk in the CDS market. See PSW: The Fed / CDS Development. I sincerely hope that cooler (and smarter) heads like Gary Gensler's will prevail.  [more]

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18

It’s Déjà Voodoo Economics... All Over Again

March 13, 2010 – Comments (2)

It’s Déjà Voodoo Economics... All Over Again
March 10, 2010
By: Eric Sprott & David Franklin


READ FULL ARTICLE

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20

The "Repo 105" Scam: How Lehman Fooled Everyone (Including Allegedly Dick Fuld) And How Other Banks Are Likely Doing This Right Now

March 11, 2010 – Comments (11)

The "Repo 105" Scam: How Lehman Fooled Everyone (Including Allegedly Dick Fuld) And How Other Banks Are Likely Doing This Right Now
Zero Hedge - Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/11/2010
  [more]

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27

Pimco’s El-Erian Says Public Finance Shock May Deepen

March 10, 2010 – Comments (0)

Pimco’s El-Erian Says Public Finance Shock May Deepen
By Garfield Reynolds
  [more]

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15

Buy Gold While Supplies Last, Says Fund Manager

March 10, 2010 – Comments (2)

Definitely watch the accompanying interview with Frank Holmes. Continue watching all the way to the end where Holmes discuses Gold behavior in relation to negative real interest rates.  [more]

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17

Failed Banks May Get Pension-Fund Backing as FDIC Seeks Cash

March 09, 2010 – Comments (12)

Beautiful. Lets further concentrate systemic risk. In fact why don't we just list all public and private assets on the Fed's balance sheet so they can paper over everything all at once when it blows up.  [more]

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26

Examination of the Large Technical Landscape / Possible Paths

March 06, 2010 – Comments (20)

Okay, we are at point in the rally where Technical and Fundamental Analysts need to do some soul searching. Obviously nobody can see the future. Even those that called this rally up to date correctly could not see the future. All you have is risk/reward and probable outcomes. And those that have been bullish have been handsomely rewarded.

But is this a new secular bull market? Is it a bear market rally?  [more]

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22

All That Glitters Is Gold?

March 03, 2010 – Comments (8)

This is a companion post to my post yesterday Is Sprott in the Market Trying to Buy 10 Tonnes of Gold?, regarding the new ETF PHYS. I got this link again from Jesse's Café Américain.

Here is a link to the original article: All That Glitters Is Gold?  [more]

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