I am a *huge fan* of Elizabeth Warren. She is one of the few people not trying to sugar coat this mess and do a lot of hand waving. We need more people that speak truth to power, and to provide honest assessments. [more]
My last post (Not All Five-Wave Moves Are Impulses: A Short Treatise on Elliott Wave) was looking at the rally since March 2009 through the lens of "Is this an impulse wave?". Specifically, we are observing a five wave move, but per my argument, a five wave move is not sufficient to define an impulse. The key is acceleration of the third wave. It must display more strength and dynamics that the first wave.
My friend Anchak asked me to look at the 1974/1975 bottom. This is a very good idea. This was the most recent secular bull market to emerge from a several year bear market, which makes for a very relevant comparison point. [more]
This is a great interview with the great investor / hedge fund manager Eric Sprott. It is worth your time. [more]
This is a *very* interesting development!! [more]
Mo Rocca is funny. Mo Rocca, in fact rocks. But MO really Rock-a's .... eeeeeaaahhhhhhh (groaning crowd at the bad pun). [more]
More BS that most of us are already aware of [more]
First things first. I am still bearish, very bearish. I am still very short (painfully so and deep in the red) from the shorts I established in mid-February. But before we get to the big picture, lets talk about the near term (next couple of weeks) [more]
A *very* nice chart from Jesse at Jesse's Café Américain. This is yet another reason why I am fundamentally bullish on gold. All pullbacks are gifts, and gives a favorable exchange rate of FRNs to real money. [more]
When thinking about being bullish or bearish, consider this equation:
Bull equation: Add positive news and subtract negative news. But negative news has a minus sign. So subtracting a negative is a positive!! = *everything* is bullish!!
Bernanke: So when should we start tightening rates?
Yellen: How about Never? Is Never Good For You?
Bernanke: Yep, I think never works.
Yep, that's responsibility. Keeping an easy money policy in place to solve a crisis that was formed by an easy money policy.... nice. [more]
Protechtor has a very nice long term EUR/USD count here: EUR/USD Longer Term View going back to 2007/2008. It prompted me to go back and review my long term EUR/USD count.
It is not secret that I am bearish on the US Dollar, both fundamentally and technically. For my fundamental picture, see here: Thoughts on the US Dollar, Analysis of the USDX Long Term, Follow up on the Gold Blog and actually I wrote a post on my other blog today that discussed this topic in more detail (inflationary policies by the Fed, debt saturation, why stocks will fall in an inflationary environment / stagflation): Debt Saturation
And there is another big reason why I am bearish on the Dollar long term: the EUR/USD count. [more]
I and many others have been discussing this very topic for awhile. My contention has been that while the first round of Quantiative Easing was engineered to prop up all kinds of asset classes, most notably the housing market (in that case to slow the free fall) and the stock market. QE-I is about to run out (the Fed MBS purchase program ends this month). And I have stated before that there will be a Quanitative Easing Two / QE-II [a.k.a. big bertha], only this time instead of propping up failing assets, the aim of QE-II will be soley to keep the governement running. [more]
Nothing really new in this article. Saying what many of us have been pointing out for a long time. But it still makes me very angry. [more]
A lot of people have their pet theories on what a steepening yield curve means for both economic growth and the response by the stock market. I am no different, I too have my own pet theories. So lets dive in. [more]
Here is my last post Idiot of the Day: bears. So the title is obviously a play off of zloj’s “Idiot of the day" series. But I want to discuss a few different aspects/intentions of my very simple post. [more]
Especially that guy binve. Man, he is a moron.
I have been discussing Credit Default Swaps recently, and in particular here, Bravo, Chairman Gensler! - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=353738 where Gary Gensler is proposing needed changes in the CDS market, but how on the flip side the Fed is undermining any risk mitigation efforts: PSW: The Fed / CDS Development. [more]
Many of us have been discussing the Repo 105 scandal recently (for details see: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=352908).
But Macro Man has a hilarious take on it today :) [more]
Kristjan Velbri at Economic Reality has a great piece on Chairman Gary Gensler of the CFTC proposing changes to help get to the root of the problem in the Credit Default Swap Market. This is a very positive development!. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is undermining this effort by encouraging more risk in the CDS market. See PSW: The Fed / CDS Development. I sincerely hope that cooler (and smarter) heads like Gary Gensler's will prevail. [more]
It’s Déjà Voodoo Economics... All Over Again
March 10, 2010
By: Eric Sprott & David Franklin
READ FULL ARTICLE
The "Repo 105" Scam: How Lehman Fooled Everyone (Including Allegedly Dick Fuld) And How Other Banks Are Likely Doing This Right Now
Zero Hedge - Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/11/2010 [more]
Pimco’s El-Erian Says Public Finance Shock May Deepen
By Garfield Reynolds [more]
Definitely watch the accompanying interview with Frank Holmes. Continue watching all the way to the end where Holmes discuses Gold behavior in relation to negative real interest rates. [more]
Beautiful. Lets further concentrate systemic risk. In fact why don't we just list all public and private assets on the Fed's balance sheet so they can paper over everything all at once when it blows up. [more]
Very good Zero Hedge Article [more]
Okay, we are at point in the rally where Technical and Fundamental Analysts need to do some soul searching. Obviously nobody can see the future. Even those that called this rally up to date correctly could not see the future. All you have is risk/reward and probable outcomes. And those that have been bullish have been handsomely rewarded.
But is this a new secular bull market? Is it a bear market rally? [more]
This is a companion post to my post yesterday Is Sprott in the Market Trying to Buy 10 Tonnes of Gold?, regarding the new ETF PHYS. I got this link again from Jesse's Café Américain.
Here is a link to the original article: All That Glitters Is Gold? [more]