This is a presentation by Marc Faber to the Ludwig Von Mises Institute on May 22nd. It lasts an hour and is a very good presentation. He puts US montary policy into its proper perspective. Listen to it and come up with your own conclusions. [more]
It is no secret that I agree with Eric Sprott quite a lot. I have written several posts that feature Sprott's viewpoints [more]
I would like to wish everybody a Happy Memorial Day and to say Thank You to all of our Veterans and Armed Service Members.
I have talked about the Dow/Gold ratio as a measure of risk aversion. And have pointed out that the Dow/Gold has much lower to go before this current cycle is over.
Update on the Dow/Gold Ratio and a few more Gold Ratios - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=387921
The Dow / Gold Ratio - http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/dow-gold-ratio.html [more]
More in the ongoing Repo scam saga. This title from March by ZeroHedge The "Repo 105" Scam: How Lehman Fooled Everyone (Including Allegedly Dick Fuld) And How Other Banks Are Likely Doing This Right Now - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=352908 seems particularly apt.
This is another good one: Repo 105 - Very Funny - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=353970 [more]
This is a subject that I have written about many times. It is a critical topic becuase people really don't understand it. [more]
I will give you a hint: it's not bull markets. Huge up days are most likely reactions within bear markets. I was pointing this out the last time we had a huge rally: What type of markets do 4% up days happen in? - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=389185. [more]
It is no secret that I agree with Eric Sprott quite a lot. I have written several posts that feature Sprott's viewpoints
- Eric Sprott Interview on CNBC - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=377859
- Eric Sprott Interview on King World News - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=360939
- Is Sprott in the Market Trying to Buy 10 Tonnes of Gold? - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=348703
- Five Questions About Gold The IMF Refuses To Answer - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=384031
- IMF Is Now Rejecting Prospective Buyers For Its Gold Stash - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=360779
In this interview, Sprott talks more about monetary irresponsibility and a likely soverign debt crisis is most advanced economies (which I agree with). [more]
We have closed below the 200 day MA for 3 days in a row and the 200 day MA is starting to flatten. The 20 day MA has convincingly moved under the 50 day MA and the 50 day MA is turning down. But the biggest inicator that the is a bear market move with staying power is that we broke the Feb lows on a number of indices (S&P 500, NYSE Composite, Dow Industrials). This is now a major lower low. [more]
John Hussman of www.hussmanfunds.com puts out a Weekly Market Comment (which I highly encourage you to read every week). Per usual, this is another good article. Hussman discusses many of the indicators that I disussed in my last post: Sliding Down A Slope of Hope - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=394928. There are a lot of bearish developments occuring. Could they serve to make another dip that simply gets bought? Perhaps. But I think something bigger is in the works. [more]
In mid-March, I wrote this post: Putting my last post into perspective: Bears and Idiots - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=355132. What I did in this post was to review why the January pullback was just a correction, what the signs were (and there were lots of signs). And to show some very obvious (and troubling) differences between now and then. [more]
Not this one (the one you are reading) but this post by imobillc
TMFSinchiruna or DBA Sinch-Silverman - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=394211.
The comments are also extremely relevant.
I have been hammering on the topic because it is the critical issue to understand how all of the advanced economies government's action will not only fail to produce the desired effects, but will more importantly make matters worse. The main issue is Debt Saturation - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=357428. It is critical to understand that an increasing debt load has decreasing marginal utility and there comes a point due to servicing requirements that all new debt has a negative economic impact. This is why we were NEVER going to be able to borrow and spend our way out of a crisis that was caused by too much debt to begin with. [more]
I am a big fan of Ed Bugos and read his stuff whenever I can. I have resposted articles by him in the past (such as http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=224047). His stuff is always a good read because of his perspective: not alarmist, always taking the long view. [more]
Great interview with Ron Paul on CNBC. Actually the word "interview" is used quite loosely here. It is Ron Paul making some excellent points to Sqawk Box's inane questions. Especially at the end, with Becky Quick's idiotic snarky comment about Ron Paul being bearish since 1971 and Ron Paul's excellent retort: That we was buying gold bullion at $35 an ounce because he realized what a trainwreck the Bretton Woods agreement was. Simply awesome. [more]
[for any Arrested Development fans out there]
Give me a dollar, no! the twenty. This is gonna blow your mind. Some say wealth is an illusion, well let's just see. For one moment it's here and the next... [more]
There are many ways that we measure "risk" in the market. Most of it is actually not risk, but measures of volatility that people ascribe to risk. But things like the Beta and trends in the VIX are used to describe the risk environment (the volatility environment). I have talked about the VIX many times (such as Impressive VIX and VIX-Sentiment). And I am interested in another topic today. [more]
My first chart is a long term monthly chart of Natty. Natty is volatile and this one removes the noise. The long term technical indicators here are weak. The bottom made a few months ago was *not* made on positive divergence. The bounce up since then has been pretty anemic. It just barely touched the large support zone at 2.00-2.50. The chart stinks quite frankly and I don't like it. This is not a bullish chart. Not yet, it has a lot of potential. But I want to see a bottoming stance and this chart is not displaying it. [more]
It is no secret that I am a big fan of Chris Martenson. Many of you know him from his phenomenal presenation and educational set, The Crash Course. I have linked to many of his articles, including most recently this one: Chris Martenson: The Shell Game Continues… - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=373325. As Chris says in his newest post, sometimes boring advice that is repeated often is the best advice. When you see problems that are so big and they are not being seriously addressed (and in fact being worsened) by our government, sometimes there is a clear path to protection. TMFSinchiruna / Chris Barker also comes to mind: advice that is given repeatedly and often. And this is the highest compliment possible. For anybody who would listen, both Chris's (Barker and Martenson) have been discussing large structural problems that are not being solved, and what the most direct and effective hedge against bad monetary and financial policy is: gold. [more]
So I am looking at Smith & Wesson Holding (SWHC). I have not done a single drop of fundamental analysis on this company and I had not looked at their chart in years (back when it was crashing). But I am looking at it now, and it looks good. Real good. "Good. Bad. I'm the guy with the gun." And in this case, it looks like guns are good. [more]
This is comedic. Hubris is funny. [more]
I didn't catch last week's report, and watched it just now. This one is *GREAT!*. Definitely worth 3 minutes of your time
This was a pretty obvious logical outcome to this massive change in European QE policy [more]
Here is a great interview with David Tice on King World News. Topics discussed are:
Austrian School of Economics, bubbles, reinflation, private sector deleveraging vs. government intervention, "echo" bubble rally in equities, debt saturation (growth in credit requied to grow GDP), gold, consumption vs savings, deflation and stagflation, and potential funding crisis in the Treasury market leading to higher rates (we have a very short term maturity on the national debt). [more]
Another great post by Jesse at Jesse's Café Américain [more]
This is by far one of the coolest things I have ever seen on the internet. I can't tell you how much I love it.
I stumbled across it here: http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2010/01/29/the-interactive-scale-of-the-universe/
Here is the actual interactive scale: http://www.newgrounds.com/portal/view/525347 [more]
I will give you a hint: it's not bull markets.
Huge up days are most likely reactions within bear markets. We had a s***oad of them in the move down from 2007 to 2009.
So as a bull, days like today (despite a nice bounce to kick the bears in the crotch for a few hours) are *not* what you want to see. Besides, the bears got wise and started wearing a cup.
Here is my longer term projection for the SPX for anybody that is interested (which is probably not many) [more]
Here is an update on my Dow/Gold Ratio chart. The original post, with a *very* detailed explanation of what the DGR means, and what my projections are for both Gold and the Dow can be found here: The Dow / Gold Ratio [more]
Simply .... wow.
If we are in the throes of Int 1 of P3 (which I think is likely given the events of the last 2 weeks), the VIX is definitely substantiating that opinion. For Int 2, there will be a pullback in the VIX, but I doubt it will go past the long term line of action. [more]
Here is what I wrote about that matter yesterday
I hear you man, what a bunch of total BS. The market was already selling off. I put up a count earlier today that showed mounting evidence for a selloff hours before this "goof": http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2...
That is just a bunch if idiot reporters trying to rationalize the fact that this market is just inherently untrustworthy at these valuations, and the smart money was leaving and the dumb money was saying "where did the smart money go". Simple herd behavior is a much more compelling explanation. [more]
Fear the market! The angel of death has returned!!!
.... Well, I only peaked out at 26 today. So maybe it's too early to get worked up :)
The C and the S are both pretty rounded after all
And in the realm of other blindingly obvious statements: [more]
Like I have made the case for many times, there is nothing in economics that has only one cause and one effect. There will not be "inflation" or "deflation". There are always both effects happening to some degree. Debt is collapsing, and it needs to. There is simply too much of it around the world. It is literally suffocating major economies. This is a very deflationary effect. Yet at the same time, the Fed is monetizing debt at alarming rates (and anybody who thinks that QE-I is it is very naieve IMO). The will be QE-II, QE-III, ... QE-N as long as there is a Federal Reserve. This places "deflation" in context. There will be deflationary impulses against a backdrop of extreme monetary inflation.
This does not make the Dollar a stronger fundamental currency. And even in fiat-currency land, there will be much stronger (less profligate) currencies than the US Dollar when this crisis has run its course. The most likely outcome is not inflation or deflation. It's both: stagflation. I have made the case for that many times. Here is a good summary: Debt Saturation - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=357428. [more]
A very nice and very relevent chart by Jake at Econompic. He always does a fantastic job of breaking down economic data into interpretable results. [more]
This is a very good interview that is worth an hour of your time, especially if you are not familiar with the debt crisis in Greece, and the state of Spain, Portugal and Ireland sovereign debt. The panel is: [more]
I completely agree
ECB may have to turn to 'nuclear option' to prevent Southern European debt collapse - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=383418
Chris Martenson: The Shell Game Continues… - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=373325
A 'Bloodbath' in US bonds? - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=371461
Moving Some Macroeconomic Deck Chairs: The Dollar, Dollar Swaps, Bonds and LIBOR - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=369098
Treasury pays most since August to sell 3-yr. debt - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=368822
Debt Saturation - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=357428
Pimco’s El-Erian Says Public Finance Shock May Deepen - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=352370
Something Very Strange Is Happening With Treasuries - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=346594
And Roubini is focused on the rest of Europe, and rightly so. The crisis will occur in the several other European nations next. But the crisis will culminate here. This was ground zero for most of the shennanigans and irresponsible economic and monetary policy and the soverign debt crisis will come back here.
In the short term the US Dollar (and ironically even US treasuries) will be the "beneficiaries", .... wait not sarcastic enough .... """"""""""""""beneficiaries"""""""""""""" of a European soverign debt crisis. But that just makes the US soverign debt crisis an even more tragic Epic Fail as people look for safety in the US before its own debt collapse.
Before this crisis is done, there are very few fiat currencies that will offer protection. And absolutely none of them are the US Dollar. [more]