I was taking a look at the Intermediate and Primary Degree Waves a few days ago (Just a Step Back) as a yearly wrap up. I want to take a moment and look the the Primary and Cycle Degree Waves in this post. [more]
We are in the middle of silly season. The market is meandering like a piece of tissue paper blowing in a bullish breeze. [more]
Many of us who are bullish on gold and gold miners often talk about the Gold / Oil Ratio (GOR). The reason why this is of interest is that metal mining is a very energy intensive endeavor and the price of oil is the biggest cost input for GSMs. But just because the price of oil is high or low does not determine profitability. If the price of oil is high but the price of gold is higher (on a relative basis) then miners can still be profitable. [more]
I love me some Star Wars, and I love me some Bill Murray. This is the best of both worlds :) (This was actually a very old SNL bit, but I like this video adding the Star Wars scenes). Good times :) [more]
Sprott Asset Management's chief investment strategist, John Embry, explains in detail in the new issue of Investor's Digest of Canada why gold is not in a bubble, why today's gold price suppression by central banks is many times greater than it was in the 1970s, and how declining production has made gold a fantastic supply/demand imbalance investment. Embry's commentary is headlined "Gold Bull Has Many Years, Thousands of Dollars to Go," and you can find it at the Sprott Internet site here:
Before I hear the inevitable criticism that my personal stance on gold is coloring my TA of gold (and I have already heard this unfounded criticism repeated .... ad naseum, so if that is what you are thinking then just save it), let me just say that this is a possible count. [more]
Another great post by Jesse at Jesse's Café Américain
The US Bull Market in Smoke, Mirrors and Gullible Investors
We have given quite a bit of coverage to the somewhat 'thin' veneer of recovery being spun by misleading government econmic statistics in the US.
And we have certainly noted the almost blatant manipulation in many US markets, including stocks and commodities where the banks and hedge funds have been pushing prices around, sometimes with the help of the government, in a disgraceful repudiation of any notion of reform.
Thanks to the Tylers at ZeroHedge we have two very nice charts to present the case that the recent continuation of the US stock market rally is due in large part to a Ponzi-like price manipulation largely in the after hours markets when trading is thin.
Read Full Post [more]
.... Yep, it's Financials. Peee-Yeewwwww!!!
I am very vocally bearish on financials for the long term. I think they are the cancer of the US economy. Monetary policy over the last 20 years have allowed for, encouraged in fact, the economy to become financially top heavy. I could go on a rant (and have many times in the past regarding financials) but I will not. I am very long term bearish, and I will leave it at that for the moment.
This is a followup to my last post: The Long View - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=314202. In the comments section, there were two very good observations / questions by crystlz and mymini with some comprehensive responses by me. [more]
I am short term trader, long term trader and investor. From a short term perspective, I put up lots of posts with charts about the current waves. Because they are immediate and most people follow the short term market action. But I do short term trading with only a portion of my portfolio. I am as much or more focused on the long term, the next 5-15 years out. And as the long term market trends move slowly, there is no need for me to write several posts about them a month.
But we are nearing a critical juncture. I believe the cyclical bull market (the bear market rally since March) is winding down. And the larger secular bear market will resume it hold. When will this occur? I think very early in the New Year (2010). But this post isn't going to be about the technical analysis or EW counts of the small Minor Degree waves leading up to that juncture. I am going to talk about the big picture. And the big picture moves in "approximates" or "windows of opportunity" not exact dates. But I think we are close enough to the top so that those who are seriously bullish on the market should consider taking some profits, or those who are seriously bearish on the market (and I am) should consider getting positioned in some long term shorts (or adding to shorts you established at the top in 2007). [more]
I was showing in my Tuesday Post Cabin Boy the sideways wedge breakout on the SPX (actually the chart was SPY) and remarking that a similar pattern was in play on the HSI, with breakdowns already occurring on the HSI.
With Conan O'Brien and Martha Stewart. This is a very old one, but I am still amused by it. [more]
I am writing this because this is the same principle behind why I rec a Caps blog post, and to why I add a Caps user as a Favorite. [more]
I see London I see France .... :)
Here are a Few Charts, Globetrotter Style!
There have been a lot of posts on blogs, and Caps, and I believe a Bloomberg article showing something to the effect that if you bought gold at the peak in 1980, you would only be up 100% so far, but down on your investment for almost 30 years. [more]
No TA or FA in this post, just opinions. Which, as you will see, is the basis for all economic analysis. And I would like to confront this topic to show why any economic analysis (DCF modeling for a stock, relative currency valuations, M0,MZM,M1,M2,etc. trends and projections, TA, Elliott Wave Counts, even GAAP accounting) are all by their very nature subjective. That there is, in fact, no purely objective basis for any economic valuation [more]
Please feel free to unleash. Write lots of comments about why you love/hate gold, think it is a smart investment/stupid useless shiny metal. All the comments go to a good cause!!! [more]