October 17, 2009 –
Hoping that BravoBevo's current ascendancy in CAPS portends a Sooner victory in Dallas. :-)
October 16, 2009 –
Unregulated capitalism simply does not work, and we have ample tangible experience throughout this country's history to prove the point. An unregulated market that starts out as free will not remain so, because those who have the greatest economic power know they can make greater profits and eliminate any possibility of competition if they take steps to make the market unfree and unfair. [more]
September 13, 2009 –
In my opinion, all this recent blather about insider selling being predictive of a new market crash is utter nonsense. Insider selling can provide important information about an individual company's prospects for the future, but when you see broad insider selling across a market, it really tells you nothing other than the fact that people are scared about the overall direction of that market. But if insiders had better predictive skills about the overall market than the rest of us, they'd own everything! We individual investors lack the specific company knowledge of insiders, but insiders have no advantage over us in terms of predicting how the overall market will move.
Hearing that insiders are selling in waves across the market tells me nothing beyond the fact that they're trying to outsmart the next big drop everyone's talking about. But the fact that people are talking so much about the next crash makes that theoretical crash LESS likely, not more. [more]
August 03, 2009 –
So what if it is?! Even if you're convinced that we're headed for another Great Depression, and you turn out to be right, sitting in 100% cash is still an extremely risky strategy. Being right about a market crash does not mean that you will know precisely when to buy. If the S&P falls to 400, do you buy at that point or do you stay in cash and wait for it to fall to 200? Same question for 200 versus 100. If another crash does happen, I can guarantee you that the decision to put money into the market will be an extremely difficult one for anyone who is not omniscient and thus does not know in advance where the bottom will be. Panic and fear are very powerful forces. If you guess wrong and the S&P goes back up from 400 instead of further down, you will have missed out on yet another major buying opportunity. [more]
May 27, 2009 –
These days you can't turn around here, or in the financial media, or in the world at large, without running into a half dozen folks proclaiming that the markets are being entirely irrational and we had all better prepare for the coming financial apocalypse. The market never looks more irrational than when it's disagreeing with one's own analysis. [more]
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