Just putting out my prediction. [more]
it seems that with baby boomers retiring, investing money will not be enterring the stock market at the rate it was over the last 20 years or so. When baby boomers hit 35 years old they invested, now they are retiring.With less money there will be lower stock prices, after all what are we really investing in, we are betting that others will invest in what we are. The dow 30 is an indicator that is adjusted as time goes on. If a company does not perform well, it is booted out and a stronger company comes in.A etf that covers the dow 30 seems to be more likely to outpreform.
For those who feel the stock market is manipulated by very powerful people, with computer trading and propaganda: it is easier for them to concentrate on 30 stocks as thnigs become more difficult. [more]
If you notice the major drop in the market is after the end of the quarter. Corporate balance sheetsquarterly reports are not effected by mid month fluctuations. 401k's need to have a certain constancy from end of month to end of month.The best time to leverage congress and at the same time allow certain mega powers to make money on huge moves is in the middle of a month, the beset month is the first month of a new quarter and the middle of the second month of the quarter.If the market rallies at the last week of these months little damage is done to the confidence of investors since their 401k statements will not be overly affected.
Last month I sold 90% of long positions and loaded short 50% of portfolio.I calculated a major drop for this month ending around the 3rd week.at that time I will Load up a DDM etf till the end of the month.Even with a 11 hour rally I still expect Oct's Market to finish with a loss.I would not be suppressed to see us go past the Oct 17 deadline for the Debt Ceiling.This will give an extra nice drop, perhaps one of the last real good drops before the corporate profits actually do take hold.
Nov will end to show a nice profit on the 401k's statements that come out in early December.The end of the year should be higher then the low we will soon experience but may not be as high as the recent highs.
What will all of this accomplish?The tea party gets a black eye.The shake up in the market will lower the interest rates.The in-the-know big player make a fortune on major moves, this is money they can use to manipulate the market when needed.Bottom line we may have a good opportunity in the next two to 6 weeks to buy. [more]
In my opinion I feel we may see a peak in the stock market.From my own experience I know that cutting cost increases profit. But growing a business reduces profit but increase revenues and protects the future of the business.When things slowed we were quick to preserve cash, cut expenses, and minimize expansion. This caused our cash to go up and our profits to go up. Now we are spending money on more efficient software and will be buying hardware. We will spend money on increasing revenues without hiring more people. We are starting to advertise again and can let our margins drop some with the increase in revenues.The publicly traded companies have done the same with one difference. The publicly traded issued a lot of new shares.They used the shares to raise cash, to pay for services, to reward and pay officers.A 10% increase in shares issued is equal to a years net income. Some companies double there shares out.With the economy picking up expenses to expand and grab customers will go up. Paying back loans will be important. Buying back shares, new equipment, software and other things will hurt profits. In short if the slowing economy caused record profits, the acceding economy will cost companies in effort to dominated their field.Also considering that the baby boomers that started investing in the late 1970 and created a high volume bear market are now pulling money out. I would not be surprised if 2013 is a record high in the market. I don't mean just looking back but in the future.One ace in the hole is that the Obama administration are the masters of manipulation. They could run the market up if Obama has a chance of a 3rd term of if he is in the midst of campaigning for the change in the law. The manipulation may be focused on the Dow since it is easier to manipulate a few companies reports then the s&p 500. [more]
I have said for some time that there is manipulation in the stock market. When investments funds leave the stock market yet the market goes up that is a sign. Manipulation is easiest during low volume. It only takes two people to change the price of a stock, one buyer and one seller. During low volume it takes relatively little money to run a stock up. With computer trading it is even easier. When the central banks are on the fence about injecting money there usually was a crisis to blame for the market to drop. Always the crisis was timed to build and then peek 6 weeks prior to a major Central bank decision. For the election the new was timed to run the market up and give 3 consecutive profitable months prior to the elections. Expecting this I had predicted that the market would peak in Sept level in Oct then drop in november since your 401k stamens that you get before the election would not show the drop till after the election. After the elections many reports were revised to be not as rosy as previously reported. Other events were the launch of GM ipo, the market had to run down for a Fed meeting then had little time to be on the up swing for the IPO, I new they would have to hit it hard and fast and they did, down for the meeting up the the ipo that was only several weeks apart. I got to the point to where I would have my attorney record my predictions some times 6 months in advance of the events.This year is different then the other years, The big event of this year is the US Budget.For congress to give Obama money Obama has to show reductions in the deficits rate of climb; Show success in his decision to bail our the Auto industries; Not show much inflation; reducing the trade deficit and of course lower unemployment.For Senate to support his push for renewable energy, health care, education and renew manufacturing at home,all reports or at least most need to convince congress that we can afford to spend.Instead of predicting the value of companies it has made more sense to ask what does the maker need to do.After the budget is voted on the inflation reports will be "revised" up.Other reports will likely be revised but the one I feel most confident about is the inflation. [more]