Oct 5 2012 is most likely to have a very large up swing. It has to do with the bond market being closed; stock market opened; the last important Employment Situation report before the close of the last month before the elections. Over the last year or more, they have hit us with bad news and bad reports on holidays where the stock market is closed and the bond market is open. This helps keep interest rates down while minimizing the damage to the stock market. Oct 5 is the opposite, the stock market is open and the bond market it closed. It also is the day of the employment situation for the previous month. October is the last month's 401k statement you will see before the elections. It is a perfect storm if you believe the reports and news are manipulated, if you still believe the major stocks are controlled by the economy then this won't make sense to you. [more]
Over the next month major decisions need to made by the worlds central banks. Is there enough of a crisis to inject large amounts of cash into the system? Or can they just sit back and see how the economy does with out their help? The decisions over the next month will greatly effect the growth of the economy. Do we need help? Of course if the news of the worlds economy is bleak enough they will have to help. [more]
The best way to lower interest rates is to upset the stock market. With a volatile market more money goes into bonds which lowers interest rates. So if the fed does nothing then rates will go down without printing money. By July they can pump up the hiring at banks and government controlled business to still get a stock market rally in time for the elections.