If the dow 30 stocks were to go to 15pe of next years estimated earnings the dow would be at 10300. If you cut the estimated earnings in half that would be 6700. If you take the average of those two numbers you get 8500. [more]
The relief I felt was overwhelming when I saw how busy they were. Last week I drove by the car dealers, they advertised great deals but there were 30 salesmen standing in a group and only one customer out of 4 car dealers. Today there were only 5 of the 30 sales people standing around and the rest were busy! [more]
I think that if Wall Street has the ability to manipulate the market then they would try to get another crash while fear is still high. I am making sure I have cash to buy at a sell off. But I also have stocks that I won’t sell until we get a good run up. . [more]
I know every one likes to dog the bailout, but these are difficult times and cars and homes are the largest purchases a family makes. I would say that more is spent per family on cars then homes. So if we’re not building homes at least we will be making cars and not selling GM to another country. And yes car sells will be down but not out. The main thing to me is we need American companies to get the sells. Do you really want our largest purchases to go to another country? [more]
Since it’s late and no one is going to read this I just want to put my predictions for 09 in my blog. I think that Jan 7 is the last day of low prices till the next major upset. I think July will be above 10500 and the sideliners will finally get in and cause a bubble and bust. In between we will have some up and down as we try to figure out if congress will cut loose with money. There will be some friction over Obama's decisions especial if he does not help a certain group that he promised would be represent by a certain person in a very high political office. Other decision that may not go well is when he has to spend billions in ways the average person can not understand. He really needs to start educating the public on what worked in the great depression and what didn’t. He needs a massive PR campaign. We could see some real agitation in our society as people conflict over policies and who gets what. I think Ford is going to kick a.. They are going to dominate. [more]
Either someone is not telling the truth or the publicly traded companies are so worried about showing good revenues that they are spending a fortune on advertising and selling at a loss. [more]
BAC had a 82 percent drop from its high of $55 in 2006 to it’s low of $10 in Nov 2008. In the stock market crash of 1929 to 1932 the dow droped 88%. The dow more than doubled in 1933 almost a year before the economy showed strong signs of recovery (when unemployment dropped considerably and gnp increased considerably in 1934). The dow did not fully recover until the fed gave up on trying to balance the budget at the start of WWII. [more]
When the dow broke 1100 in 1999 I warned people that the dow was too high, off course I was resented for my opinion. After climbing even higher the market finally started to back off. The pattern showed us we were ready for a major correction. 9/11 hit, the market crashed but recovered before a recession formed because of the government bailed us out so quickly. They had a national disaster and no one complained about a strong bailout. Because we recovered so quickly the market became over confident and shot up. [more]
I could be wrong but I think BAC under $14 dollars will return you 30% in 6 months.
This is from Investopedia [more]
It is safer to get into the market at the 8500 or lower range then it is to wait till it’s over 10000. If the market gets over 10500 buy July be careful. If it breaks 11000 it is too high but still could go up on momentum. I plan on selling first glimmer of a down turn in July.
2010 will not be 2006. Look at 1998 and just think of this next year as the same.
What the news media has failed to realize is this recession actually started in October of 2005. The stock market dropped some that month but then the money from real estate started to poor into the stock market (real estate was no longer profitable and you have to put your money somewhere). The market should have eased but instead it went up. [more]
Every thing is pointing to the market going higher Monday so surely it will go down.
I write like I talk and most people don’t understand me but here goes. [more]
Ok we all know the market will crash today, but we have all weekend for someone to come to the rescue and save us. Monday could rally big time.
It seems to me that the new mood of being conservative in our spending will last for several years. For the last several years it was in fashion to be extravagate. Now it’s cool to be thrifty. If your neighbor goes out and buys a Hummer you’re not envious you just sinker at there lack of judgment. [more]
In 1987 we had a normal recession. It cooled the economy, wages and price were kept in check and we were reminded that we should watch our credit card spending. In 2001 we were due for our next recession. The Stock market had peaked and was starting to decline. 9/11/01 devastation struck in New York. An unprecedented attack on our own soil. Although the financial markets collapsed we as Americans pulled together and helped each other. In a way we were at war and we were not going to let the terrorist cripple our country. The government acted quickly and did what ever it took to save the economy. [more]