April 01, 2009 –
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RELATED TICKERS: DSCO
Discovery Labs is my current favorite heartbreak story. It's a story about a great product based on strong science being sheparded through a tortuous regulatory landscape by a crappy management team. I'm not going to regale you with the long tale of sorrow and the company's on-again, off-again love affair with the FDA. The short version: the FDA has to take action on the company's submission (PDUFA) for it's lead drug candidate on April 17th. The decision, I predict, will finally be favorable, which ought to make a multibagger of the stock price in just a day or two afterwards (it has been trading between $1.2 and 1.8 for, like, ever). The real payoff, though, should be a licensing deal or an outright acquisition, which should relieve this company of it's remarkably ineffective leadership. I have real money in at an average basis of about $1.4. If you're thinking of taking a cheap flyer, this might be worth a look. [more]
March 22, 2009 –
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RELATED TICKERS: UNG
, FCG
The decline in crude oil prices gets all the headlines, but the first globalized natural gas glut in history is driving an even more drastic collapse in the cost of gas that cooks food, heats homes and runs factories in the United States and many other countries.
Six giant plants capable of cooling and liquefying gas for export are due to come on line this year just as the economies of the Asian and European countries that import the most gas to run their industries are slowing.
Energy experts and company executives say that means loads of gas from Qatar, Egypt, Nigeria and Algeria that otherwise would be going to Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Spain are beginning to arrive in supertankers in the United States, even though there is a gas glut here, too.
With industrial and utility use of natural gas declining, gas prices in the United States have already declined by two-thirds since the summer. Prices are not likely to go down much more, experts say, but an increase in imports is likely to keep them low until the global economy recovers and drives demand back up. [more]
March 12, 2009 –
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RELATED TICKERS: PPD
I red-thumbed PPD ages ago, an Amway-like MLM company whose independant resellers frequently employ unsavory marketing tactics to sell, well, prepaid legal services as a type of hedge or insurance against the possibility of future legal expenses. I hadn't thought about the company for months until I discovered that CAPS member Buddytoo - an obvious PPD shill and reseller, since PPD is (at this writing) the only pick on his CAPS card - is chasing all of us who shorted PPD and calling us all 'idiots' and other unflattering epithets in response to our pitches. Well, I don't respond very well to that kind of ad hominem attack, even under the best of circumstances. [more]
March 09, 2009 –
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RELATED TICKERS: AIG
And you thought AIG's $62 billion quarterly loss last month was bad -- turns out that the company has a further $1.6 trillion in outstanding derivatives exposure, according to this leaked memo that AIG sent to the US Treasury in order to beg for another $30 billion.
January 25, 2009 –
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RELATED TICKERS: PFE
, WYE
, AMGN
There's an old business aphorism that says you can't succeed just by cutting costs. Eventually, you're going to have to do something better than your competition is doing it to come out ahead. Right now, it seems like innovation is on the sidelines in the biotech world as all the big names race each other to see who can cut costs and lay off head count the fastest. Problem is, the finish line lies just over the edge of a 500-foot patent cliff. [more]
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