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goldminingXpert (29.11)

February 2011



Quepasa: Wanna Buy an overvalued social network?

February 28, 2011 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: MEET

The Quepasa corporation (QPSA) runs, a social-networking site aimed at Latinos that's available in English, Spanish, and Portuguese. Shares have soared in the past year as the company has successfully leveraged the enthusiasm driven by its status as the only pure-play publicly-traded social network. While there are numerous other social networks, they are either privately-held or are subsidiares. The publicly-owned include Myspace, which is a subsidiary of News Corporation (NWS) and, which is owned by Google (GOOG).

However, while there is obvious appeal of being the only pure-play social network, traders have gotten overly-excited and shares of Quepasa have soared beyond any reasonable valuation.  [more]



My Crazy Call: Buy Airlines. Now.

February 24, 2011 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: LFL , TAM.DL2 , JBLU

If you believe the market correction we've had this week does not mark the beginning of the end of this bull market, then you ought to be buying airline stocks hand-over-fist. And yes, I am aware of oil's mercurial rise on the back of sweeping unrest across North Africa. Airlines are obviously extremely vulnerable to $100 per barrel or higher crude. Despite airlines' complex hedging strategies to protect against price spikes, they are still hurting from this sudden price surge. The recent trend of rising profits across the industry will likely be reversed in upcoming quarters.

So what's there to like about airline stocks? The market is simply overreacting to the geopolitical news we've had so far. Egypt is not a first-tier oil producer, and even though Libya is a significant player, it is not among the world's top-10 producers. And not all of Libya's production has been shut down at this point. The market is pricing in much more unrest than there currently is. This baked-in uncertainty includes a fairly-high probability that the political contagion will spread to Saudi Arabia when in fact there is little evidence of this worst-case outcome is about to happen.

There's no shortage of oil around the world presently. There's actually a glut of supply in the Americas, (continue reading at Seeking Alpha)  [more]



I am CAPS 1-day hottest player. Sigh.

February 22, 2011 – Comments (36)

What a humbling fall from grace, to go from #1 and 10,000+ point to a sub-0 score and sub-50 rating. Due to the nonsense in Libya, I've finally returned to being an all-star today with my rating rising an absurd 45 points. Hopefully with a little sanity in the financial markets, I'll be back to 99+ rated soon. I will never again laugh at the "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" quote as this bull market has been a most embarrasing teacher to me. I apologize to all my fellow fools here who I belittled when the S&P 500 was 100s of points lower than it is presently for their bullish stance. I was wrong.   [more]



Chinese stocks getting hammered today

February 16, 2011 – Comments (13) | RELATED TICKERS: CAGC.PK.DL , CHBT.DL

Another rough day for the dubious Chinese RTOs. How long will regulators let this untrustworthy companies continue to make a mockery of our markets? How long will foolish longs keep pumping these deflating stocks? So many questions.  [more]



HAWK goes belly up to CAPS surprise

February 15, 2011 – Comments (11) | RELATED TICKERS: HAWKQ.DL

Probably the greatest disconnect between what people thought would happen and what did happen in quite awhile. 49 out of the top 50 ranked players at CAPS to pick HAWK had green thumbs. Two questions: Did most of the highly-ranked players to throw green thumbs on the HAWK actually do due diligence or were they just following along? I briefly green-thumbed HAWK without doing due diligence but closed it for a small gain quickly and didn't return as I saw deteoriating finances. Secondly: Why is HAWK still selling for four bucks and change this morning? Rather odd reaction for a bankrupt company, right?  [more]



Actions Semiconductor: A True Value Play

February 14, 2011 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: ACTS , CASH

Yes, believe it are not, there are stocks that I like along with the many I dislike. Some of these preferred stocks are even in China. Actions Semiconductor, with $208 million of cash to support its lofty (not) market cap of $170 million is one of those. Is the Actions Semiconductor business worth the -$38 million valuation the market has given it? I argue no in this article.  [more]



Yongye Followup

February 14, 2011 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: YONG.DL

Yongye chose an interesting fellow to cite as scientific evidence for their product's efficacy. Also, follow-up with the CFO. The article is here.  [more]



ChinaMedia Express thread #2: why the drop today?

February 11, 2011 – Comments (17) | RELATED TICKERS: CCME.DL

The last post on CCME I started had 75+ comments and I think it is time for a new one for the sake of more rapid loading.   [more]



iBio Grossly Overvalued

February 09, 2011 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: IBIO , PLX

Here's my take on iBio Inc. Stock is trading down more than 5% this morning. With 3 employees, no revenue, and a $175 million market cap, it has a lot farther to fall.



Yongye Research

February 06, 2011 – Comments (34) | RELATED TICKERS: YONG.DL , MTEX

Here´s my article on Yongye. I don´t believe the company´s growth story (I think the company is quite real, but I doubt it is as large or successful as it claims). A lot of smart people do believe the story. If you own the stock, please do your own research and think about whether the story makes sense to you or not. I have never traded this stock and have no position now. As Citron says, ¨Cautious investing to all.¨   [more]



CCME: pump/dump done, lawsuits begin

February 04, 2011 – Comments (78) | RELATED TICKERS: CCME.DL , RINO.DL2

Let the lawsuits begin as the scandal winds down... I wish all of you stuck with this stock the best of luck in courts -- perhaps there's still something to recover? If you've been part of the victim class, please do join the lawsuits, they are our best hope of stamping out these violations of security law in the future, as the SEC is powerless to protect us.   [more]



How to spot a fraud from a value play

February 03, 2011 – Comments (40) | RELATED TICKERS: CCME.DL , CHBT.DL , SA

Interesting discussion going on over on another CAPS blog ( in the wake of the recent cratering Chinese phantom-company stocks. As CCME, CHBT, RINO, CVVT and others flutter toward zero, it's worth examining what we can and can't know as small investors. I am pretty useless when it comes to Chinese stocks, as I don't know any Mandarin or Cantonese, and their businesses are far too opaque to be understood without being their and speaking their language. I occasionally recommend Chinese stocks when I have some reason to believe they are somewhat credible (analyst coverage, news coverage in Western media, verifible deals with Western firms, etc.) However, in most cases, there simply isn't enough information for uninformed American dupes such as ourselves to figure out whether the company's are taking our investment dollars and buying luxury homes in California with them (Hello, RINO International).  [more]



CCME -- run for the doors

February 03, 2011 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: CCME.DL

Yet another flakey China company gone bad. Too bad I closed my red thumb at a 20 point gain BEFORE the big crater today.

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