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goldminingXpert (29.08)

March 2008



How Weighted Are All-Star Picks In CAPS?

March 24, 2008 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: CPN

I requested that Calpine (CPN) be added to CAPS shortly after it emerged from bankruptcy. I gave it a red thumb as one of the first 3 ratings on the stock. Since that point, I have been the one and only bear on the company the entire time. Now CPN is up to 26 bulls, including 3 all-star bulls, and only me--a 99.3 rated player-- as the bear. Yet despite the lack of bearishness, the stock only is rated 3 stars. It seems strange to me that one guy--me--can take a whole 2 stars off a stock. If I were to end my (winning +4 points) pick on Calpine then the stock would go to 5 stars immediately. I'm guessing that a 99 all-star is worth more than an 87 all-star in terms of rating? Is SpecBear or TMFBent's picks worth way more than mine?   [more]



How Far Will DownWithInfidels Fall?

March 20, 2008 – Comments (12) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , SLV , GG

I'm watched with great interest as DWI has rallied to as high as #5 on the fool with his 2 sector bet plays: long commodities, short financials. As my industry of interest is gold, I saw DWI involved in all the stocks I follow, and he was long all of them, even though some of them weren't very good. Now that the commodities bubble has spectacularly and unfixably blown up, it is clear that DWI missed the trend change. His overall score has dropped 1800 points since the beginning of March. All of his 19 most recent picks are now in the Red. DWI was a nice story, but if you bet on a sector, you will eventually die by that sector.  [more]



S&P to 1220 now...

March 19, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , USO

The liquidity crisis is not over, whatever people may say. My top evidence is unexpected, yet strikingly clear. Gold -$45 an ounce today, Silver -$1.20 an ounce, Wheat lock limit down, Oil -$4 a barrel. Why are these things blowing up when they should be rising weak dollar=strong commodities, right? Wrong in this case, the hedge funds are running low on cash as banks tighten up and bring cash home. Hedge funds are coming unleveraged and commodities--the current bubble--are popping. Of course, as liquidity dries up again, the pop of yesterday fell apart, and we lost 300 points of the 420 point (pothead rally).   [more]



What a sucker's rally yesterday

March 19, 2008 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: IWM , QQQ

As I posted yesterday, I said there was no reason to be buying the 420 point rally... as it turns out, the market has returned to reality. Now the question is... who bought the top? I don't think joe six-pack had time to get involved... who fell for yesterday's shenanigans? I can't figure out what the market was thinking. Shockingly, the financials haven't collapsed again today either... it is the rest of the market, especially the small-caps leading us down. Gravity was bound to set in after yesterday, but this should get mighty interesting once the financials start heading back down.  [more]



Why are people buying today?

March 18, 2008 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: DIA , QQQ

I'm very very short the market via the ultrashort ETF's and am obviously annoyed with today's rating. That being said, I can't figure out for the life of me why we are up 300 today. The Fed has to cut 100 basis points to appease the market which has rallied on these hopes. If they cut 100 or more, they will tank the currency market... the USD/Yen has been crucial to the market recently, when the Yen strengthens, our stock market falls as the carry trade unwinds farther. A 100 point cut, besides being historically unprecedented, would cause a sharp sell-off in the dollar thus tanking the market. A cut of less than 100 disappoints the market and causes a sell-off. I believe the Fed will cut .5 which will panic the market. As I see it, the Fed is in a no-win situation... so, with all that said, why are we rallying today?  [more]



Quit complaining about underperform picks...

March 14, 2008 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: IWM

Since we are trying to beat the S&P 500, and the S&P contains the best and strongest companies in America, it can be expected that the average company will lose to the S&P over the long run. Especially once you factor in that the S&P takes out bad companies before they die, while the majority of small-caps eventually die untimely deaths... the odds of picking outperform winners is much lower. Therefore, I feel no guilt in loading up on underperform picks... the S&P are the best stocks out there, so it is inherently difficult to beat them.  [more]



The Short List: What Junk to Red Thumb This Week

March 13, 2008 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: XPER

AEBF.ob--$700 million in market cap for a biofuels company for which I can't even find financials. New to CAPS, hop in now before it collapses.  [more]



Dogpiling Picks On CAPS

March 13, 2008 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: XPER , NUAN

Question for everyone, especially for 99.9+ rated players--how often do you see people dogpiling your picks... and is it a threat to the CAPS stock rating community as a whole?  [more]

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