Awesome. I am very pleased. One question... is it possible to use a limit to close a pick already open? I want to set a limit to close ACAS at 0.03 but when I click the end pick, it just says waiting to determine price. Is there some way to set my limit so I can forget about ACAS and automatically have my 98 points accrue when it goes bankrupt?
You screwed up Ben. Big time. [more]
Multiple trolls saying that I was wrong, I've thrown in the towel and so on. Of course I haven't. Things have played out largely as expected in my last post. I expected one more push up... which we got. It was on weak volume and the bulls have failed to confirm it today. As I type, the market is sinking to new lows on the day as the bond market continues to disintegrate. [more]
TMAP D21V15--that's right, the series has changed names to avoid claims that I'm a permabear, but I'm still blogging until the market goes down. [more]
China is an economic basket case that is heading into a decade-long (or longer) depression reminscent of Japan 1990-2009. I've said this here numerous times and been criticized numerous times. Well, Paul Krugman seems to see trouble for China as well. Besides his comments, I also offer this article: [more]
*TMAP*d17v14 (read the first comment to see why it is named as such. Though this is still part of The Market is About to Plunge series--specifically Day 17 and Volume 14--I don't want people thinking I'm a permabear when I'm not. at all. The future of America is perhaps not as bright as our past, but we aren't doomed either. [more]
The market is about to plunge? How can we be sure? Along with the many better reasons, I offer up a different approach. Despite what my feeble-minded critics type, I have a track record here. Leading critic Drumnutt has never made a single pick on CAPS, yet he had the audacity to post this regarding the alledged inaccuarcy of my predictions: "I don't expect 100% [accuracy], but maybe you could aim for at least 10% and then build from there?!?!" on his smearblog. Anyway, let's take a look back into the archives to see if anything I've said could have been of use to you: [more]
Today was an exciting day, however I urge caution and prudence rather than cheering and celebration. The bulls have been very strong over the past two months; they've had far more endurance than I expected. We must respect them and realize that they will use anything, no matter how stupid, to set off another rally. The way the market was reacting to GM news last week, I fear a surprise Ford bankruptcy announcement could shoot the S&P to new highs! We must remain vigilant and aware in case the bulls bust out their crackberries and set off one more round of malacious rumours, unbelievable spin and malignant short squeezing to try to grind us back to 930. With OPEX coming up Friday, you have to realize danger is high. While the put/call ratio has been absurd, it's still possible the market makers will try to prop stuff up until your puts expire worthless. In all, be cautious, we've probably entered a downtrend of a significant degree but we haven't broken enough support to celebrate yet. When I break through 11,000 points and climb up to the top spot, then it'll be time for us bears to start poppin' champagne. [more]
While I'm not going to officially call a top yet, the odds are definitely rising that the top is in on this bear market rally. Why? The speculative garbage people have been buying are getting smashed today. The GMX CRAP index (Companies Rapidly About to Plunge) is getting shelled today. Here are the components of the CRAP: [more]
Green shoots? "Are you crazy?" asks Karl Denninger of The Market Ticker. His main points are that unemployment is not reacting as it did in previous recessions, sales tax receipts are unfathomably bad (-50% in Cali!), the stress tests are frauds and Bernanke continues to be clueless. I highly recommend the entire article for your reading. It has a great graphic and his writing, as always, is solid. [more]
Swine flu spreading too fast to count, CDC says
Confirmed cases are only the ‘tip of the iceberg,’ health official says
msnbc.com staff and news service reports
updated 12:42 p.m. PT, Mon., May 11, 2009
Swine flu is spreading so far and fast in the U.S. that state health officials may soon stop counting individual cases, a federal health official said Monday.
The novel H1N1 virus accounted for 40 percent of flu viruses logged in the U.S. in the past week and helped propel an uptick in overall flu-like illnesses, said Dr. Anne Schuchat, a deputy director with the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“I think the cases we’re confirming are the tip of the iceberg here,” Schuchat said in a press briefing Monday.
The CDC has confirmed 2,600 cases in 43 states and Washington D.C., with 94 hospitalizations and three deaths. Another 700 cases are suspected. Although the flu is spreading quickly, it remains relatively mild in the U.S., say health officials.
“They tell us for sure this virus is circulating throughout the United States and it’s likely to be in every state,” Schuchat said, adding: “It’s a time when we really need to guard against complacency as we move to a new normal.”
The CDC has started tracking the novel virus using the surveillance system used for seasonal influenza, called FluView.
Because many states did not report cases over the past weekend, Schuchat said she expects a big jump in cases to be reported Tuesday.
So far, three people in the U.S. have died from complications of swine flu. On Saturday, Washington state health officials reported the death of a man in his 30s. America’s other two swine flu deaths — a toddler and a pregnant woman — each suffered from several other illnesses when they were infected with the virus, according to a study released Thursday.
Health officials said the Washington victim had underlying heart conditions and viral pneumonia when he died Thursday from what appeared to be complications from swine flu.
“We’re working with local and federal partners to track this outbreak,” said Washington State Secretary of Health Mary Selecky.
The man was not further identified. He began showing symptoms on April 30, and was treated with anti-viral medication. Dr. Gary Goldbaum, Snohomish Health District medical director, said medical officials hadn’t been able to isolate any “risk factors” for the man to identify where he might have been exposed.
Neighboring Canada reported its first death from swine flu on Friday — a woman who was in her 30s. Alberta's chief medical officer says the woman from northern Alberta and did not travel recently. He says she also had other medical conditions. Dr. Andre Corriveau made the announcement at a news conference Friday.
The report by the CDC presented a clearer picture of the complicated medical situations faced by those who have gotten swine flu and had the most serious cases so far.
The Mexican toddler had a chronic muscle weakness called myasthenia gravis, a heart defect, a swallowing problem and lack of oxygen. Little Miguel Tejada Vazquez fell ill and died during a family visit to Texas.
The pregnant woman, Judy Trunnell, 33, was hospitalized for two weeks until she died Tuesday. The teacher was in a coma, and her baby girl was delivered by cesarean section. According to the report, she had asthma, rheumatoid arthritis, a skin condition called psoriasis and was 35 weeks pregnant.
People with chronic illnesses are at greatest risk for severe illness from the flu, along with the elderly and young children. So far, most of those with the swine flu in the U.S. and Mexico have been young adults.
“We’re still learning about what patients are most at risk” from the new virus, said Dr. Fatima Dawood, a CDC epidemiologist.
The CDC report released by the New England Journal of Medicine also provided more detailed information on 22 people hospitalized with swine flu. Nine had chronic medical conditions, including the two who died and a 25-year-old man with Down syndrome and a congenital heart disease. Five of the patients had asthma alone.
President Barack Obama said Friday that public health agencies must reach all corners of the nation when providing information on matters such as swine flu.
The president dropped by a town hall-style meeting at the White House co-sponsored by the Spanish-language media company Univision.
He said, "we're all in this together. We're one country, we're one community. When one person gets sick, it has the potential of making us all sick."
‘We’re still learning’
Last week, the CDC also described the symptoms experienced by Americans with swine flu. About 90 percent reported fever, 84 percent reported cough and 61 percent reported a sore throat — all similar to what’s seen with seasonal flu. But about one in four cases have also involved either vomiting or diarrhea, which is not typical for the normal flu bug.
It’s possible the virus is spreading not only through coughed and sneezed droplets — as with seasonal flu — but also through feces-contaminated hands, said Dawood.
“This is a new virus and we’re still learning how transmission occurs,” she said.
About 10 percent of the Americans who got swine flu had traveled to Mexico and likely picked up the infection there.
Reuters contributed to this report [more]
Just marking time today. We had a fine day today, reality returned in the banks as Meredith Whitney came on CNBC and reminded people that the laws of financial gravity have not yet been repealed. Hopefully we can get some followthrough tomorrow. Just need the Nasdaq to cooperate, it was intolerably bullish today. [more]
Um, uh, anyone here own Bank of the American Government? (BAC) Honestly, I don't mean to be mean, but are you out of your mind? The shares are trading over $13 yet I see this on the newswire: [more]
Instead of more reasons, I'm here to offer trading advice this afternoon. As the Nasdaq has started getting shredded this morning, my reversal signals became more and more solid. If the market closes here or lower (SPX <914) we will print a very pretty reversal daily candle on all the indices but especially the Nasdaq. Look at a chart of the QQQQ (NAS 100 index fund) and tell me that isn't screaming bearish. The opportunity we now have is to short here. [more]
Selected comments from the last posts of the Market Is About To Decline series. I brought back comments that were: factually correct, entertaining, posed a good question or were downright moronic. Remember that I'm keeping a file with all the stupid comments for later use when the S&P is traded with a much lower first digit. [more]
I have better things to do, like study for final exams, than lecture ignorant feeble-minded posters that somehow think that the parade of bullishness will continue unabated despite the ongoing depression. That said, I did say I'd keep posting until this bear market rally distinctly ended. Well today, we fact have exciting news: [more]
Are we enjoying the last weekend before reality returns to the stock market? Probably not. This bullish enthusiasm continues to surprise. However, the day when all the bullish lies are revealed to be empty and meaningless grows closer. For today's installment, let's discuss a fundamental--very fundamental--problem that bulls would prefer you don't discuss. Earnings. Or more correctly: WHAT EARNINGS? You really want me to believe that the S&P is going to rise when it is trading at a Forward P/E of 18? Are you trying to sell me land on Mars too? [more]
In response to the nonsense being run by a few people, including regretfully, a columnist at my college newspaper, I offer this quote from Bloomberg news: [more]
Yesterday, I highlighted the reason for this series. We are celebrating the remaining few days (weeks) at this elevated level in the stock market before the reality of "Sell in May and go away" sinks in leaving bulls despondent as the S&P slides back into the mid-700s. Already, the market has slid significantly since the inception of this series yesterday morning. Will the rally that began at the metaphorical 666 end at the equally numerical 888? The answer appears to be yes, though the deluded bulls may try to argue otherwise. [more]