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goldminingXpert (29.08)

August 2008



Recommending Western Refining (WNR) again

August 27, 2008 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: WNR

recommended this stock three weeks ago at $7 a share. We've now gone up 20%, but there is a lot more upside coming. Basically, while it was just undervalued before, now it is still undervalued, but also has a catalyst... several in fact. In short, here's the bull case on WNR:  [more]



Cal-Maine Foods: Great Company, Terrible Stock

August 26, 2008 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: CALM

A problem a lot of people have is that they fall in love with the story of a company and disregard all other factors. Sadly even the best of us can get tripped up by this, I know I have. Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) is one of these. They run a great business with dependable profits. Their business: selling eggs. People enjoy eating eggs--recession-proof for sure. However, the commodity bubble dragged this one along and totally seperated the stock price from the reality of the business. Eggs are a commodity, an egg is an egg is an egg. If CALM's margins go high enough, competitors will come in with their own chickens and lower the margins. There is no moat here.  [more]



GMX is backing up his talk...

August 21, 2008 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: JAGGD , FNMA

someone complained on my FNM pitch that I only go for points and I need to back up my picks with dough. Well, I already do this, but since people didn't realize that, I am now attaching the green $ sign to any pick where I have invested real college fund/downpayment for house fund capital. Note that this makes me look like a crappy investor, as I have a tendency to trade quickly.I close out my winning picks (or in the case of an underperform pick, rethumb it about 7,000 times (looking at you CFC)). I don't care about perceptions though, now you can see with GMX is putting his real $$$'s into (or out of when I short sell.) Note that the starting price is not always where I purchase something... for instance the JAG I own now is dollar cost averaged at $7.40 but my outperform pick is from much higher up. I bought 200 shares at that higher price and 350 at a lower one... but I can't show this in CAPS. So I may have a better gain or worse lose than what CAPS would show, but at least now you can see where my money is... not just my mouth.   [more]



A Rant plus why GMX hates Cubic Energy and CHNG.ob

August 20, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: LNG , UNG

Directly lifted from my forthcoming pitch on QBC (QBIK.ob)... I sent a request for them to update the ticker as the stock has moved to the AMEX...  [more]



GMX upgrades Jaguar Mining to Strong Buy (JAG)

August 11, 2008 – Comments (11) | RELATED TICKERS: JAGGD , GLD

I am officially upgrading the Concord, NH based Jaguar Mining company to Strong Buy on the strength of today's earnings announcement. The company made 9 cents per diluted share vs. a loss last year and a mere 1 penny per share last quarter. The company has ramped up production and is opening another mine later this year. Based on this strength, I see revenue continuing to grow sharply for the next few years. The company will mine somewhere in the range of 150,000 oz of gold this year-- they are moving towards an eventual goal of 700,000 oz a year. I trust management to complete this goal seeing as how the competent management has driven this stock price from under a dollar to $14 before falling back (check out the chart of Canadian listing--the American listing showed up much later.)  [more]



Why there will Not be hyperinflation.

August 09, 2008 – Comments (7)

Karl Denninger absolutely nailed this one. He explains hyperinflation will not happen in the US and why goldbugs will be sorely dissappointed when their apocalyptic calls of doom are laid to rest next to Y2K and the killer bees. If you can't be bothered to read his article, I'll summarize:   [more]



It just keeps getting worse: Foreclosures in CA

August 09, 2008 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: BAC , HOV , XLF

Mr. Mortgage reports: "July was another record month for foreclosures in the state of CA with all hell breaking lose and banks taking back roughly 26,500 homes for $12.5 billion. ’Record-breaking’ is not a good thing in the foreclosure universe. This 25% increase breaks all records ever posted and all foreclosure estimates. "  [more]



Is this 1980 Part 2?

August 08, 2008 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: GG , GLD , USO

While I thought the commodity bubble was coming to a close, I thought it'd get at least one more run. With the dollar setting a long-term bottom at 70 on the dollar index chart, it was inevitable that commodities couldn't run much higher. However, the speed and severity seen in the collapse of oil, nat gas, corn, the euro, and gold makes me think it's all over and we're repeating 1980 where cries of "END OF THE WORLD" were replaced with cries of anguish from gold/oil owners within a year. Gold and oil would both almost immediately lost half their value.   [more]



Western Refining: It's Time To Buy

August 07, 2008 – Comments (12) | RELATED TICKERS: WNR

Reported profit of 12 cents a share (would have been 24 if not for a tax write-off) this morning. Received ~$60 million in a tax refund boosting liquidity position greatly. Will be selling off one of their refineries to pay off a large chunk of debt but in the meantime they've secured a new credit line. At 24 cents a share per quarter profits, the company has a forward P/E of 8... and assuming oil continues to drop, they will make a mint. I listened to the CC, and the only thing the CEO wanted to talk about was reducing debt and boosting the balance sheet. This company is well-run and management has a good handle on what is going on. Plus, the short interest is gigantic and will soon be covering.  [more]



fools Gone Bad: Jaguar Mining (JAG)

August 07, 2008 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: JAGGD , GLD

A mere three weeks ago, Jaguar Mining, the outstanding Brazilian gold miner was trading at $12 a share and had a 5-star CAPS rating. Due to a decline in the price of gold, JAG fell to $10 and lost a CAPS star. At this point, I hopped in with an outperform pick, as JAG has a $15 to $17 fair value, $10 is a compelling entry. Due to a slight mishap with one of JAG's mines, the market overreacted and pummeled JAG under $8 today. I got to add 500 shares on the cheap this afternoon and am already counting the dough from when I unload these shares back over $12 again... that's 4 months of rent for one mind-blowingly simple trade. Booyah!   [more]

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