In March, everything was crashing, it was the end of the world, etc. Blah blah. Along came Obama and the Stimulus Cannon of Change which fired your children's future at the economy and made things better. Or so we were told. Everything started going up. We're happy. Yay! GDP is positive, WooHoo! Yay! Oh snap, why are disposables incomes down 7% yoy when GDP is rising? Why is the housing market still sinking? Why is Wilbur Ross predicting a commercial real estate crash? Why is the stock market throwing up a hairball the same week the "recession" ended? [more]
And that's with just a 119 point drop in the Dow. While my timing was horribly wrong throughout 2009, my thesis, that a deflationary depression is occuring, is unfolding smoothly. The market has, it appears, turned the corner into the third wave of the 5-wave bear market. While TickRTapeKing appears to be set as #1 for awhile, I shall do my best to give him a good friendly challenge for the top spot. The market has rolled, the bankrupt banks are tumbling, and I'm starting to smell fear again. And when others get fearful, I get greedy... [more]
will be bankrupt within 15 months. That's all.
I've been working on a book that seeks to predict the future for more than a year. I've written enough of it now to write an intro and present a reasonably coherent table of contents. I'd love to hear rational people's feedback and ideas of what I'm missing, etc. as it is much easier to fix a book before you've finished writing the first draft of the manuscript than later on in the editing process. [more]
In testimony, Comrade Ben Bernanke said, "If growth is 3% going forward, the US unemployment rate will stay above 9% for all of 2010."
This leads to the obvious question -- if growth is 0%, or more likely -3% going forward, where is the US unemployment rate... the answer doesn't add up to an S&P reading over 1,000.