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goldminingXpert (29.06)

December 2008



Strong Dollar is Back

December 18, 2008 – Comments (30) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , SLV , GG

That whole weak dollar thing was real cute; for a day or two, it looked as if the goldbugs' constant threats of "toilet paper dollar" were again within the realm of plausability. Today, however, reality has returned to the forex market as the euro has lost an entire 5 cents of value against the dollar. King Bucky is again on the rise as the DX is moving sharply higher. While gold and silver are down nicely today, they should be down much more. For all of you who caught the big runs in stuff like SLW, it's time to take profits, gold is heading straight back down to the low 7's and silver is returning to a single digit. Don't argue with King Bucky, when the rest of the world gets scared, they buy dollars.  [more]



Dogpiling December: The GMX Retrospective Part 2

December 16, 2008 – Comments (24) | RELATED TICKERS: SKF , QID , DXD

In Part 1 of the series, we covered the earliest days of the GoldminingXpert where he struggled to gain 500 points and was not yet an all-star.  [more]



Quick Take On The Market This Morning

December 12, 2008 – Comments (16) | RELATED TICKERS: SPY , SKF , FAZ

As you probably know, futures are pointing to a rough day for the bulls today. Dow futures are -300, S&P -40. SKF is already up 10 bucks in pre-market trading. A compound effect off of weak retail sales, no auto bailout, and the hedge fund scam caused the waterfall decline. For those of us who have been steadfastly bearish for the past two weeks, today is sweet sweet vindication. The most important lesson is in all the myths we saw shattered:  [more]



GMX Retrospective: An Interlude

December 11, 2008 – Comments (14) | RELATED TICKERS: C , FAS , ABKFQ.DL

Part 2 is on hold while I study for final exams. That being said, I crossed the 8,000 point barrier for the first time this morning, and stand presently at 8,054. I've seen a lot of good players fizzle here, way too many CAPS players would get to 5,000 and then turn around and see their CAPS rating turn back into a mirage. What can you do to avoid stalling out in the top 100 and break through to the magical lands of Dwot and Specbear?  [more]



PTIE attractive option straddle set-up

December 10, 2008 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: PTIE

Zzlangerhans brought to my attention the idea of a straddle play on Pain Therapuetics leading up to an FDA decision expected today. After tooking a good look at the chart, I've decided to buy a position in Dec $7.50 strike calls at 0.9 and a smaller position in Dec $5 strike puts at 0.15 (trying to get more at .1 but so far no one will sell them to me.)  with the stock at 7.80, the call is 30 cents in the money but only trading for 90 cents... the stock was as high as 9 as last week, giving the call an intrinsic value of 1.5... if PTIE only gets back to 9, the position is a roughly 70% winner. On the flipside, there has been significant insider selling and this company is a 1-drug outfit. Should the FDA frown on PTIE, the stock will be expected to take out the 52-week low at 6.4, and 5 will be in play... thus the puts are not a bad deal at all. I recommend a small nibble at this options straddle if you are looking for a prudent speculation and can afford to lose the money should the stock just pause at 7.5-8 for the next week and a half.  [more]



just put green thumbs on the ultrashorts.

December 08, 2008 – Comments (44)

Market appears to have topped out just over 900 on the S&P and right at 9000 on the Dow. We should get a nasty reversal here as everyone I talk to is bullish until after Christmas... you know what that means. Just loaded up some of the FAZ (3x bear financials) for the personal account.



The History of GoldminingXpert, a CAPS Autobiography (Part 1)

December 02, 2008 – Comments (13) | RELATED TICKERS: GG , TGE.DL , GOOGL

The GMX Retrospective Part 1: The Early Days  [more]



Following Up On My Post Yesterday

December 01, 2008 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: KGN.DL2 , ANVGQ

Regarding Brittannia, I understand how the system rewards leaving 5 star picks on. Maybe the CAPS designers could put in a NA time pick that would have no effect on a stock's rating. On some stocks like KGN, I don't think the company is a great buy, but I expect to be able to shrink the size of my CAPS loss on it... KGN can only go to 0 from about 50 cents, but the S&P could tank another 30 or 40% before KGN bites the dust, thus reducing the amount of suffering my errant pick caused. While I would not tell anybody to buy KGN here, my caps loss on the stock will decrease as the S&P further sinks. CAPS should give me an option to leave the pick open but specifically exclude my pick from rating the company. My bigger question is why Brittannia acquired so many green thumbs including from all stars while it was a major pile of junk.  [more]


18 What's Wrong With The CAPS Community?

December 01, 2008 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: ANVGQ

Brittannia Bulk Shippers have suffered a severe decline this year, losing 99.96% of their value, as the stock fell from well north of $10 to 0.01 most recently. However, the CAPS community was overwhelming bullish on this stock... it still, even at 1 cent, maintains a 5 star rating. What a hidden gem indeed! There are still 85 outperforms including 8 all-stars on this thing--and not a single bear. While it makes sense that a bear would have cashed the points and left, the stock only accumulated 11 total red thumb picks in its entire sordid history (there are still 85 active green and a bunch of closed green thumbs to boot). The CAPS rating was 5 stars the whole way down the slope to 0.01. Unlike DRYS, which the CAPS community understood to be a bizarre hopeless bubble, this sinking stock failed to garner even a mild amount of skepticism from the CAPS community.  [more]

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