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August 2011

Recs

7

Looks Like All Downside From Here

August 31, 2011 – Comments (1)

In the past, I did not pay much attention to macro, as I believed there were always many bullish and bearish forces working against each other, and it would be near impossible to accurately predict their aggregate effects. Also, I will be the first to admit that I am not an expert on macro economics. But right now I feel the macro picture is unusually clear and it looks like all the uncertainty is to the downside. So I'd like to share my thoughts and hopefully someone smarter can convince me otherwise.   [more]

Recs

12

Great Video of the Problem in the Economy - Balance Sheet Recession

August 20, 2011 – Comments (5)

Some of you, like me, might have heard the term "balance sheet recession" being used in the past few years but never fully understood it. I watched this video by Richard Koo recently and it made a lot of sense to me. It happened to Japan and I think it's exactly what we are going through right now. The difference is that it's the consumers who are overleveraged this time instead of the corporations. How many homeowners are underwater still...   [more]

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