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DRY BULK

October 25, 2007 – Comments (2)

  For the most part, the Dry Bulk sector has many outperform ratings, especially recently. The most notable exception is DRYS, and there is so much misinformation out there about Dryships.There is plenty of information available to keep yourself informed about the company's ships, and the charter rates they get for them. You don't really know how many sneakers Nike sold last quater until they come out with earnings. You can find out EVERY day how the Bulk companies are doing!The website, capitallink.com gives the latest charters, the length (in months or years), and the daily rates. You will see that they are coming off charters for $30,000 per day and will now receive $90,000. you can compute that out to see that even the upgraded earnings estimates are way too low. You hear that new ships are being built but not fast enough to keep up with demand. You will see that old, single hull tankers will be converted to dry bulk ships, and see that the shipbuilders are not using many berths for this conversion, because they are busy building new ships. In the mean time China and India are building new electric plants, and cities (not for the Olympics) and they can't get enough iron ore and coal. The Analysts that know this business are uprading their earnings estimates every month, not just their price estimates. Jefferies, and Cantor Fitzgerald, have analysts that are devoted to the sector, not just paying it lip service. Based on those earnings, DRYS has a PE of 8, how is that overbought? Some of you that have underperform ratings, are counting on the BDI going down, eventually it will. so sell then. In the mean time you are down 1000 points. I hope you don't trade with real money on emotions, because I don't see any rationale in the hatred of DRYS.  [more]

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