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topsecret09 (52.11)

June 2009



Green shoots or yellow weeds?

June 21, 2009 – Comments (3)

  Recently I have been reading more and more comments from market PROS that we should not worry about inflation,at least not for a COUPLE OF YEARS...  They reason that there cannot be inflation because the consumer Is not spending like In the past,and that consumer NON-SPENDING will keep Inflation low for some time to come. Excuse me !!! #%%@@^%%$#@!  IF CONSUMERS ARE NOT SPENDING WE CANNOT RECOVER FROM THIS RECESSION !!!  The government Is SPENDING there way into financial armeggeddon. As If they havn't already spent enough,now the obamanator wants to revamp medical care,and the preliminary costs from the CBO puts the price tag at ONE TRILLION over 10 years. Believe me,thats the LOWBALL figure. The economy Is still losing tens of thousands of jobs a month,unemployment Is still RISING,house values are still falling,consumers are spending cautiously, Even though (10) banks have repaid 68 billion In Tarp funds,hundreds of BILLIONS of bad debt still clogs many banks balance sheets. Top that off with rising gasoline and FOOD PRICES,and the green shoots start to need large amounts of water. Think about this for ONE second.... since December 2007 the United States has lost SIX MILLION JOBS..... and we are STILL losing jobs.  Monday the FED will be buying 104 MILLION In Long term treasuries In their sustained effort to keep a lid on Interest rates. This,In my opinion Is flawed thinking. This could,and should be troubling to Investors because this could very well contribute to HYPER INFLATION In the longer term. By the way,In case your wondering where the term "GREEN SHOOTS" came from, Bernanke used the term In March when he said that he saw evidence that the economy was showing signs of recovery. Since his (green shoot) comment the phrase has SPROUTED LIKE WEEDS......  What do you think about all of these GREEN SHOOTS?  [more]



Feel good Mini-Rally on low volume.

June 18, 2009 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: FAZ

 In the first two weeks In May, DJIA volume was 4,923,000,000 shares, In the first two weeks of June,the volume was 3,270,000,000 shares. A difference of 1,653,000,000 shares. Volume has been In a steady decline since May 20th when the intra day low was 8376 on the DJIA. On June 11 the dow hit an intra day high of 8911 on only 249,000,000 shares. What does all of this mean? It is my opinion that people are sitting out because they are scared. There Is still way too much uncertainty about this so called recovery. The markets DO NOT like uncertainty,and right now I do not think anyone can tell you how all of this Is going to pan out. For me,there are more questions than answers about this economic mess that we are In. Obama Is really starting to scare me with all of his regulatory IDEAS....  The United States has always been about "FREE MARKETS", and I feel uneasy,as do others,about when the next shoe might drop.... Banks are still not lending money,the unemployment numbers do not count people that have quit looking for a job.Gas prices are rising,food prices are rising,and paychecks are shrinking. I have been unemployed for over four months( I work commercial construction) and I see no end In sight. I still think we will see a correction,or more very soon.... Good Luck, Jim.   [more]



Were Heading Down

June 17, 2009 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: FAZ

  I have been using technical charting for over 30 years,and while that does not necessarily mean that what I do Is foolproof, there are certain things that have worked for me consistantly over the years. While I do not know how long this leg down will last,It's coming..... The first test should be 8,000 on the dow,If It slips from there,7800.... If It does not hold at this level,look out below. While I would be mildly surprised If the Index dropped below 7600,my charting and trends suggest a  5 to10% correction could happen In relatively short order. Good luck,and take cover...  I bought FAZ 3x yesterday and I will add to that position on any intraday market uptrends.  Good Luck, Jim   [more]



In the week ahead for the markets (June 15 thru 19)

June 13, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: ADBE , BBY , FDX

  Earnings Call: Adobe Systems (ADBE) Best Buy (BBY) Smithfield Foods (SFD) Fed EX (FDX) Carnival Corp (CCL) JM Smucker (SJM) Pier 1 (PIR) Carmax (KMX)   [more]



In the week ahead for the markets.

June 06, 2009 – Comments (0)

Earnings reports come out for Pall  {PLL}  Talbots {TLB}  Brown Forman {BFB}  Mens Warehouse {MW}  Del Monte Foods {DLM} and NATIONAL SEMICONDUCTOR. {NSM} Tech-Meisters will be watching this one closely....  Economic Data that will be reported Includes WHOLESALE INVENTORIES for April.( Estimate Is minus 1.1%) TRADE BALANCE for April  (minus 28.7 B) Fed beige book ADVANCED RETAIL SALES for May (0.4%) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS, BUSINESS INVENTORIES for April (minus 1%) IMPORT PRICE INDEX for May (1.1%) MICHIGAN UNIVERSITY CONFIDENCE INDEX  (69.2)  Good luck next week, Jim  [more]



Picks waiting to post {LIMIT ORDERS}

June 06, 2009 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: CRY , TKC , ICXT.DL

I've had two picks pending for a week, one for three days ,and a new one to add on Monday June the 8th. CRY and TKC keep going up, ICXT Is staying at about a nickel over my start limit,and on Monday I will try to add ARIA at $ 1.70 limit. ARIA Is sporting big technical numbers that suggest an uptrend Is Imminent. Keep an eye on this one,as there may be some positive news lurking In the backround...... Good luck to all,and may all of your trades be winning ones!!  JIm  [more]



Dow 14,000 declared by market Pro on cnbc.

June 04, 2009 – Comments (2)

Market looks a little frothy to me right now. Too many "Pros" and media delaring the stampede Is on.....  Huge debt run up by our federal government has to come home to roost at some point In time. Already seeing Mortage Interest rates rising because they keep printing money. Oil Is rising even though demand Is VERY WEAK. High gasoline prices could throw a monkey wrench Into our recovery. When Interest rates start rising dramatically,stocks will suffer In general. Make sure to hedge with precious metals,and commodities stocks at the very least. There was an article on CNBC where someone stated "Pro" that he "Is not worried about rising Interest rates,because It will not a material negative effect on the direction of securities"...  WOW !!!!   [more]

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