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DemonDoug (99.86)

Huge Rally Coming...

Recs

14

November 04, 2008 – Comments (21) | RELATED TICKERS: XBI , DNDN , AMGN

With the win of Ohio, Obama has basically won the election (pacific coast states are all blue so it is over).

My prediction for tomorrow: at least a 3% rise on all the headline indices.

What does this mean for the market in the future?

Bullish: tech, biotech, infrastructure, clean/green tech.

Bearish:  Haliburton. lol.

21 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 04, 2008 at 10:09 PM, milpo (99.37) wrote:

Don't know DemonBug. History seems to be repeating itself. The derivative and credit default death star is  on the way. The ObamaPlan or second New Deal will take some time.  Bunker down.

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#2) On November 04, 2008 at 10:11 PM, johnw106 (30.82) wrote:

What is good is that it looks like the Democrats will not have a fillibuster proof congress.

History shows that a Demo prez and a Repub congress is a good combo when there is a recession and high deficit spending. Lets hope history repeats.

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#3) On November 04, 2008 at 10:12 PM, nuf2bdangrus (< 20) wrote:

I'd be selling that rally around S&P 1100 if it even gets that high.  Earnings forecasts must come down.  I am always early.

 

Infrastrcuture....they've already rallied, do I sell the news?  I own TEX and got stopped out of MDR at a considerable loss, bought at 41.  Buying more gold.  Heavy in cash.  Sending some $ to Mish Shedlock to keep me from going crazy.   This market makes sense.  Hedge fund selling has mysteriously dissappeared, 3 days before FYE.  Is there more to come?  I suspect so.  I'm flat and nervous.  

 

Oh, and short TM and PRSP, a ridiculously overvalued bank.

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#4) On November 04, 2008 at 10:23 PM, rd80 (99.26) wrote:

johnw106  - barely enough votes for a filibuster is a long way from a Repub congress.

Congratulations to the Obama supporters. 

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#5) On November 04, 2008 at 11:06 PM, Tastylunch (99.64) wrote:

I don't think it will rally tmr due to Obama winning, I think the market expected that to happen. Most wall streeters view dems (rightly or wrongly so) as a negative despite what history says. My guess is the market is flat tmr ,neither up nor down more than 1%. FWIW it's worth I believe historically the market tends to react negatively when a Dem wins intially but in his first year in office it tends to rally hard (perhaps in part because it tends to sell off immediately after a dem win).

eh who knows? the market has been rallying anyway (nice day today eh?), what's to really say it stops tmr?

Really though who honestly thought McCain would win? I know I thought it was a longshot. It was Obama's race to lose all the way.

Well Let's hope Obama lives up to hype. He certainly would be hard pressed to be worse than what we've had lately :-)

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#6) On November 04, 2008 at 11:06 PM, DemonDoug (99.86) wrote:

Oh hey I still think we are headed for more pain.  2009 will be worse than 2008.  I'm just saying short term the euphoria over the election will spur more buying and optimism, and maybe even for 2 days, and yes sell the rally.  But make sure you get some silver/gold.

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#7) On November 04, 2008 at 11:14 PM, DemonDoug (99.86) wrote:

As soon as 8 pm hit on the west coast, all major news outlets called all western US states for Obama (with 0% reporting).  Congratulations to Obama.

Now go find your best biotech, because that's what is going to shine in the next 4 years.

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#8) On November 05, 2008 at 12:04 AM, DemonDoug (99.86) wrote:

from cnn -

"Global stocks traded higher and U.S. futures rose on Tuesday as Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama was named the projected winner.

The Nikkei, the major index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange, rose 2.8 percent in early trading. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong surged almost 6 percent at its open. The Australian All Ordinaries index was up nearly 2 percent."

We are looking at a minimum 3% gain for the US markets.  This is euphoria/optimism buying right now.  It is possible this will run into thursday.  I would bank profits that you have either tonight or tomorrow.  The fundamentals of the economy and market in the next 12 months are terrible, but I'm actually looking for an improvement coming in late 2009 to early 2010.  Housing is still terrible, but the real economy should start to pick up again around 1Q 2010.

 

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#9) On November 05, 2008 at 12:21 AM, columbia1 (30.27) wrote:

Futures, Dow down 9, S&P, down 1.10

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#10) On November 05, 2008 at 12:26 AM, awallejr (79.38) wrote:

Stay with the plan.  Buy the yielders, and bunker down til 2010.

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#11) On November 05, 2008 at 12:43 AM, ajm101 (38.97) wrote:

Biotech, alternative energy, energy efficiency, and internet are also parts of his platform. 

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#12) On November 05, 2008 at 5:33 AM, camistocks (80.01) wrote:

Tasty, I feared that the smearing campaign of the Republicans would take away likely Democrats' votes again....

Ha, it didn't work this time. 

Very impressive victory by Obama! Wooohooo!

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#13) On November 05, 2008 at 10:13 AM, TheBubbleBoy (99.40) wrote:

This election even the thick heads on Wall Street figured out that Republicans are the party of big government and Democrats are the party of prosperity.  Anyone not in stocks now is set to get left behind.

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#14) On November 05, 2008 at 12:09 PM, Tastylunch (99.64) wrote:

camistocks

nah buddy I wasn't worried, big difference this time? Dems control more offices on the state level. We have a sec of state here in Ohio now where we haven't had one for a long long time. Voter suppression didn't work this time as black people actually got to vote and vote early if they wanted to! Smoothest election I've ever seen.

The real challenge for the dems  is that didn't do as well in the senate as they thought, they will not be able to impose their agenda as they might have.

DoubleD

So far no rally yet :-(

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#15) On November 05, 2008 at 12:28 PM, LordZ wrote:

be fearful when others become or look greedy and greedy when others are fearful.

To expect the market to rally, based upon Obama winning, is foolish,  oh sure the world might rally, but its after the US market ran up, the world if anything are followers.

Unfortunately today will be a down day...

It is what it is.

Forget what you think you know..

because you really don't know...

uncharted territory,,,

I won't complain...

only warn

and hope for better..

 

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#16) On November 05, 2008 at 5:21 PM, lenri (91.30) wrote:

OK. I'll be the party pooper. I should have read this blog yesterday, especially Z's comment before I made my picks today.

Dow        - 486.01   down 5.05%

Nasdaq   - 98.04     down 5.53%

S&P500  - 52.98     down 5.27%

Guess it didn't play out like you thought, huh?

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#17) On November 05, 2008 at 5:28 PM, briyan (26.32) wrote:

Maybe in one more day?

Sorry Doug ;-) 

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#18) On November 05, 2008 at 11:42 PM, TheGarcipian (99.27) wrote:

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news. That's all this was. The talking heads today tried to make it sound like the 486 point drop was due to Russia lining its Polish border with missiles, or because of unemployment numbers, or a half dozen other WAGs, but that's all they were: Wild-Assed Guesses.

The truth is the market shot up 300 points on Election Day, after climbing shakily last week, all on the euphoria that Obama might win. That was the "buying on the rumor". Today was the selloff from short-term profit taking. I expect more of these rally-snuffs to continue over the next 6-9 months until we bottom out around 7500 on the DJIA. Oh yes, friends. Make no mistake, there's still more pain to come...

But thank heaven that Obama won. Wa-hoo!  He's a much better selection than McCain was, IMO. Let the moaning begin from the Far-Right. Today, the Republicans are right about one thing though: this credit crisis shot them down. How calmly Obama reacted to it with thoughtful repose and gathered intelligence was a stark differentiating factor over how radical (almost emotionally) & "from the hip" McCain reacted to it, that was when he didn't seem completely divorced from reality by making statements like "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" and "I know how to fix this" yet lacking of any details (as was typical for most of his campaign) and pulling stunts like "suspending his campaign". How ridiculous their camp must now feel in hindsight. McCain should have fired all the hacks directing his campaign when they forced him to sign on Sarah Palin over his own objections. 

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#19) On November 06, 2008 at 12:35 PM, Tastylunch (99.64) wrote:

TheGarcipian

aligned 100%. You said it better than I did.

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#20) On November 07, 2008 at 4:36 PM, DemonDoug (99.86) wrote:

I am man enough to admit when I am wrong.

I was dead dead dead wrong on the election rally.  I maintain my overall bearish slant, as I mentioned in the comments I did not think this was a fundamental rally but just rather market foolishness.

Today's rally is, of course, more of the same BS.  The whole market is heading down.

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#21) On November 09, 2008 at 5:45 PM, Tastylunch (99.64) wrote:

DemonDoug

That's why I respect you, you are one of the more honest guys on CAPS. I'm wrong all the time myself and as I result lack the courage to lay it all out there as you do. I know how it feels. Hopefully I didn't come across as harsh earlier.

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