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EPS100Momentum (69.74)

Looks like we hit bottom at 7,500

Recs

5

November 26, 2008 – Comments (12) | RELATED TICKERS: FNF , KB , C

because even today's durable news is having a hard time keeping stocks down, Nasdaq just turned green and many financials are rallying today. One of the telling signs is that yesterday we had a major unfreeze of the mortgage rates. They dropped to 5 1/2% from 6.40% the day earlier.

Better to get in a little late then to miss the rally.

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 26, 2008 at 10:06 AM, kali77 (99.79) wrote:

It's still early :)

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#2) On November 26, 2008 at 10:19 AM, givmeabreak (96.53) wrote:

Dude, EPS. Look at your posts from yesterday and this morning. You might become a "take the opposite of what he says" indicator.

Now you are saying better to get in late than miss the rally? After saying "I told you not to go long". And the fear of durable goods news?

Now your calling THE bottom? Haven't you already called THE bottom before a couple of times on the way down? Be honest.

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#3) On November 26, 2008 at 10:20 AM, EPS100Momentum (69.74) wrote:

Financial stocks showing major strength on a day market is down 122 points. FNF, KB, C all up big. Cash Infusion by FED has helped to unfreeze credit.

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#4) On November 26, 2008 at 10:28 AM, EPS100Momentum (69.74) wrote:

You can't make money in the market if you are strong headed and don't change your opinion on a dime when you see things change.

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#5) On November 26, 2008 at 10:35 AM, Harold71 (96.25) wrote:

As if financials have never rallied before in this bear market?  C, for one, was on the brink of death, a big rally is easy.  They'll be needing cash to burn again soon...

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#6) On November 26, 2008 at 10:46 AM, EPS100Momentum (69.74) wrote:

One other reason to buy today on the dip is that Black Friday is well known for huge Stock Market rallies.

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#7) On November 26, 2008 at 10:55 AM, givmeabreak (96.53) wrote:

Ok, so I am betting that the market tanks on Friday.

Not trying to be disrespectful EPS, just doing a little friendly ball-busting/predicting like I'd do with friends and family.

I will use the new "follow this" feature for this post and revisit on Friday.

Have a Happy t-day to all.

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#8) On November 26, 2008 at 11:53 AM, DemonDoug (99.86) wrote:

Fake "cause" of rally: 

Cash Infusion by FED has helped to unfreeze credit.

Real cause of rally:

The US Government and Federal Reserve have printed so much money in the past 3 months that there are way way way too many dollars out there chasing assets.  This is simple asset inflation due to dollar devaluation.  Who knows if it is temporary or not.  Last time I checked tuition and health care costs are still going up, and the price of eggs at the supermarket hasn't gone down.

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#9) On November 26, 2008 at 1:08 PM, barich1 (88.72) wrote:

The market is so volatile and people are so panic stricken that it doesn't take any news at all to make a big movement.  I laugh when I see the headlines attributing the movements to one cause or another.

It's funny how quickly mood can change with a couple big rally days.  Including myself,  I feel better about things.  Heard all about it with our last quick rally too.  I got burned by it as a matter of fact.  The stocks I bought were such great deals that I didn't put stops on them and ended up loosing all my gains.  This rally I took my profits and am now waiting.  The short term rally could continue farther, who knows.  The economy in general is still on the way down... world wide.  4th quarter reports will stink, especially for the holiday profiteers.  Unemployment is rising RAPIDLY.  Inflation and dollar devaluation are coming, be it sooner or later.  About the only thing I'd worry about missing the bottom on is precious metals.  I plan to continue the day trading timing type strategy for awhile before committing to any "buy and hold cause this is the bottom" strategy.

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#10) On November 26, 2008 at 1:31 PM, guiron (< 20) wrote:

It's very hard to predict a bottom until we've past it. Well, at that point it's not predicting. The media keeps talking about capitulation, but I think we're heading into flat growth for a while. So, we could see bottom and generally stay there for a while. The cash infusions by the government are helping, but there are problems that will take a while to unravel still. Remember the last rally? Well, I bought SKF and made 20% after that rally, and it went up nearly $100 further, but I'm conservative and will take my cut. I still have puts on home builders expiring in Dec, and I'm not too worried about them, even though they're below cost basis now.

I'm a bear at least until the middle of next year, but this is a very difficult market to navigate. Get some sale prices when it tanks again, but don't worry if you've hit the lowest price. All that matters is that it will recover far past your own cost basis, but don't expect that to happen for several years on any growth stock.

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#11) On November 26, 2008 at 1:47 PM, JesterWOCourt (< 20) wrote:

I think the bottom was around 80 years ago.  Perhaps longer.

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#12) On November 26, 2008 at 5:44 PM, loudoungroup (< 20) wrote:

EPS100,

Jezus, how do you lose 5000 cap points in about 4 months?  You must of remained long all this time.  I am expecting a rally to 9400 - 10,050 range by end of December-1st half of January....if we get there, short the phone book.  This is a bear market rally - final bottom is likely to be under 4000 DOW between Oct 2009 and spring 2010....

Our recent snap back rally provided a great low risk opportunity to go long financials via UYG and others.  However, don't get comfortable....  Plan your exit because the bottom is far from here.  If SRS makes it under 100, HELOC it and buy all you can:)

GL.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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