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UltraContrarian (99.84)

Help clean out my CAPS portfolio

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November 26, 2008 – Comments (7) | RELATED TICKERS: NFP , ANDE , OFG

Hooray, I'm an all-star again!

So far I've only ended one negative pick - an outperform on VeraSun Energy, which promptly went bankrupt.  But I'm consider ending a few of my other negative picks.  So cast your vote for the dumbest picks I should definitely end before it gets even worse, and which I should grit my teeth and hold.

Name (Ticker)                                  Relative Performance   CAPS Rating

National Financial Partners (NFP)                  -63%                      3

The Andersons (ANDE)                                 -58%                      2

Oriental Financial Group (OFG)                      -56%                      2

Aqua America (WTR) (underperform)              +53%                     4

China Mass Media (CMM)                             -48%                      2

GSI Group (GSIG)                                         -48%                     2

Xinhua Finance Media (XFML)                        -45%                      2

Apex Silver Mines (SIL)                                 -43%                      3

Cogent (COGT) (underperform)                       +41%                     4

Trina Solar (TSL)                                           -41%                      2

Crocs (CROX)                                               -39%                      2

Coca Cola Bottling Co (COKE) (underperform) +39%                     4

Books-A-Million (BAMM)                                -39%                     3

I'm sure there's plenty of other stuff which will turn out to be toxic, particularly since I only green thumb 1 and 2 star stocks and red thumb 4 and 5 star stocks.  But this portfolio is just for fun, I don't have any of these positions in real life.

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 26, 2008 at 7:05 PM, Tastylunch (99.64) wrote:

Crocs

it's fadilicious plus they seem to have bad management

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#2) On November 26, 2008 at 7:22 PM, UltraContrarian (99.84) wrote:

Yeah I know Crocs sucks but debt is very light and they're trading at significantly less than net cash ($150M).  Why would they go lower?

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#3) On November 26, 2008 at 7:28 PM, Tastylunch (99.64) wrote:

True it shouldn't, but management seems like they are content to burn cash and not sell the company or dissolve it which probbaly the only ways to realize that value.

Their sales seem to be falling off a cliff and they are very unprofitable. Just because they have cash today doesn't mean they will tomorrow if they keep burining through assets.

Just a thought. doesn't mean I'm right. :-)

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#4) On November 26, 2008 at 7:31 PM, UltraContrarian (99.84) wrote:

I'm gonna cast my vote for Oriental Financial Group, I hadn't seen their latest quarter yet and it is brutal.  They seemed to be doing pretty well through the last few years of Puerto Rican housing downturn but revenue just collapsed and the writedowns were huge.

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#5) On November 26, 2008 at 7:35 PM, UltraContrarian (99.84) wrote:

Glancing at the numbers, CROX actually had positive cash flow the last two quarters. Last quarter was some kind of large writedown I guess.

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#6) On October 27, 2009 at 12:21 PM, Pennyperson (< 20) wrote:

What's your thoughts on PLM? Thought about buying.

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#7) On November 24, 2009 at 7:15 AM, nilesgold (49.70) wrote:

Can you elaborate on how OFG's recent quarter was "brutal"?  I'll admit I have little experience evaluating banks, but from what I could tell book value increased over LY and last quarter and I couldn't see any huge red flags.

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